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2019 - Success or bust has never been more finely balanced


Brocky

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Well today might go down as one of the worst of all time in terms of how bad I've got my money in.  I don't have anywhere else to rant so just going to do it here.  It's hard to explain unless you've been through it playing 100 HUSNGs in a day with the number of all ins and flops seen but the way it completely messes with your mind has to be the worst feeling ever.  Since I moved up to the 25s I'm pretty much exactly even which doesn't sound terrible but I must've ran good in all ins today because I seemingly never had the better hand.  I made 2 or 3 overbet river bluff shoves today with perfect blockers on straight and flushy boards, got hero called by 2nd pair twice.  I made probably 3 shoves with the nuts on similar boards, got 3 folds.  I'm ISOing big pairs, getting monotone flops where I have an overpair and flush draw but losing to a flopped flush yet when I limp/call 98s I'm missing or flopping bottom pair, turning a flush draw and bricking the river meaning I've put in half of my stack and having to fold.  I folded 2nd/3rd pair a couple of times on the river to 3 barrel shoves where it's starting to feel like they always have it, whether they do or not.

It's difficult to quantify how these periods of card distribution affect my overall play but for those of you who've been following Phil Galfond's challenge you'll have probably heard him talk about it.  He did a podcast yesterday with Joey Ingram and he talked about how when your opponent is more often than they should be at the top of their range it becomes difficult to comprehend and process the patterns we normally use to adapt our game.  I'm feeling exactly the same right now.  The games at the 25s haven't been super soft nor super reggy the past few days but even a bad reg has enough fundamental understanding to make them really hard to beat if they're running hot and I think I'm overbluffing as a result.  

In times like this I question myself very quickly.  It's easy to think you're an absolute don one minute in HUSNGs but the next you're wondering if you can even beat the games.  When I look at my graphs from PS/FTP and Unibet I have been a consistent big winner in mid-stakes games for 10 years and I just need to remember this going forward.  That doesn't mean I shouldn't be doing everything I can to improve but for me to doubt whether I can even beat the 25s, which is how I feel at times like this, is ridiculous.

I hate taking breaks from poker but it's much needed right now.  Not sure how long for but going to chill on the PS4 for a bit and reassess later/tomorrow/whenever.  Luckily I'm only -€31.70 today, could be much worse but I always feel like it could be a lot better.  

 

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I feel you man 

I have been playing the same recreational over 10 games in the past 90 minutes. The card distribution was bad for me as well but the flipping was even worse. I won 1/8 to start with. Completely insane. He finally left when I regained two stacks. Now my sleeping pattern is even more messed up than it was before...

I saw there was another game running in the 25€ lobby until about 5 AM. Were you in it? If so we might have played the same opponent

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I typed a long update but deleted it because I can't be bothered with any more ranting. I am really, really struggling to finish games off when I have >1500 chips, whether I'm ahead or behind it doesn't matter. I think one of the biggest fallacies in poker is that "it'll even itself out". I'm not saying I'm 300bi below EV or whatever but through every terrible day of grinding whether it's the all ins or card distribution, going into the next day with a positive mindset means absolutely nothing as to how you run. The cards have no memory.

 

All we can do is keep working hard and grinding.

 

 

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@Brocky wrote:

:Cash:

image.png.289a2fa5415860bd5ce6c335ee2a067f.pngReally motivating to look at when things aren't going too well.


Yeah, the hardest part of grinding is probably to know that tomorrow is no different. Everyone has their own reasons to keep going. Feels bad now maybe, but the results not even close to graphs like that is often seen with ppl who thinks the road is coated with roses and butterflies.

Strenght, man :popeye:

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One day I'm going to log in and not just get the most stupid ❤️♥️❤️ ever.  That will be a fabulous day.  I've played 5 games today and already taking a small break because it's just so frustrating.

I talked about this reg on my stream, literally runs insane.  First game vs him, he calls off 3 barrels with no pair into the backdoor flush, nice hand bro.  Then I get my last 10bb in with 87s, flop top 2 and get runner runner'd.  Cool.

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Next game vs him, I limp/call a 3x with KT.  The result couldn't be more standard.  Of course, I never seem to have KQ here?

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Alright, we move on.  A couple of recs up next.

He opens pre, I flat.  He checks back the flop, I lead 3/4 pot on the turn and he goes for the min raise.  Not ideal, the flush gets there but I would imagine he c-bets his flush draws.  QJ gets there but not a massive concern, would likely raise the turn bigger with QJ no spade to protect.  He must have a pretty strong hand to min-raise the turn though? I have to call the raise and re-assess the river.

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We're faced with 20% PSB on the river, it's an easy call but he's probably going to show KT or a bigger ace, right?

 

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Oh.  Brilliantly played, sir.  

Don't worry, we'll get 'em next time.

Rec opens 3x pre and checks back the flop.  Great turn for me IMO and I'm not going to get much credit plus this guy isn't really paying attention to bet sizes.  I can go super big here and just jam and safe river for value.

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Yes, of course.

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The hands themselves aren't super sick of course but when you feel like this is a deja vu of 90% of the times I've logged in over the past 3 months it's really starting to wear thin.  Been seriously contemplating buying a punch bag for the flat just to let out some of this pent up anger.  I'm one of those that gets angry quickly but calms down fairly quick as well, would probably be a sound investment!

Back in October I won €2k at the 25s in one week.  It's going to be scary for the player pool when I hit another heater.  Until then, enjoy the fact that you seemingly can play hands as badly as you like and just cooler me.

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This one is for @GR1ZZL3R given he tagged me in his.

I was down €200 after tilting a bit at higher stakes earlier.  Restarted the session not long ago and I've won all 12 games at the €25s 🤣

What did I say about Unibet being streaky as hell?  Somehow up €84 for the day so far.

Edit: 13 now.  It seems Stubbe has flicked the switch.

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@CuteRaven wrote:

@Brocky Your suggestion of a punching bag might be a good idea actually for bad sessions. Sometimes if I need to blow off steam I stand up, jump around a bit and punch the air. Sitting down and continuing the session like nothing happened seems to just make tilt worse.


Yeh exactly what I was thinking.  By the time I get back to the computer I'm pretty sure I'd feel a lot better

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It's funny, I was reading a post on 2p2 earlier from some guy who was talking about a different poker site, he was listing the pros and cons and added that he likes it because there's fewer bad beats than on other sites.  I rolled my eyes because it's a stupid thing to say.  I therefore give you all permission to roll your eyes at what I'm about to say.

I literally cannot comprehend this site.  My mate and I have a joke that you can tell within the first game of the session how you're going to run and whether you should just quit there.  I know it's stupid but it's purely based on what we see everyday.  

My last 4 sessions have been something like:

Won 13 bi in 15 games

Won 20bi in 60 games

Won 10bi in 16 games

Lose 10 in a row with 60%+ equity in 7/8 of them

I am sure variance shouldn't be like this, should it?  In the 14 games I won in a row, 13 were against regs and it did not matter what I got my money in with, I couldn't lose.  Today I have 3 recs and I lose 10 in a row despite having them behind almost every time.  I guess as humans we look for patterns that aren't there but it's really starting to mess with my head because I often feel like I want to stop playing as soon as the negative variance begins, which goes against all logic that we should play if we have an edge.  

I know how stupid I sound but I don't even care at this point.  

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@Brocky wrote:

It's funny, I was reading a post on 2p2 earlier from some guy who was talking about a different poker site, he was listing the pros and cons and added that he likes it because there's fewer bad beats than on other sites.  I rolled my eyes because it's a stupid thing to say.  I therefore give you all permission to roll your eyes at what I'm about to say.

I literally cannot comprehend this site.  My mate and I have a joke that you can tell within the first game of the session how you're going to run and whether you should just quit there.  I know it's stupid but it's purely based on what we see everyday.  

My last 4 sessions have been something like:

Won 13 bi in 15 games

Won 20bi in 60 games

Won 10bi in 16 games

Lose 10 in a row with 60%+ equity in 7/8 of them

I am sure variance shouldn't be like this, should it?  In the 14 games I won in a row, 13 were against regs and it did not matter what I got my money in with, I couldn't lose.  Today I have 3 recs and I lose 10 in a row despite having them behind almost every time.  I guess as humans we look for patterns that aren't there but it's really starting to mess with my head because I often feel like I want to stop playing as soon as the negative variance begins, which goes against all logic that we should play if we have an edge.  

I know how stupid I sound but I don't even care at this point.  


@Brocky  well, there is some (I'm pretty sure it is over there) hidden flag called Ray-GOD mode. Once you have turned ON, worry not, just shove and collect money :cash: 👍 ... but beware if it is not your case as of 'today' - close session and just wait - you should be able to recognize when the clock is ticking your way 🤣

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@Brocky This variance is surely the most misunderstood thing in poker, something we think we should be able to grasp but find very elusive. I have briefly discussed this before but it is very interesting. Matt Berkey thinks in a lifetime of live poker play he won't know wether variance is on his side or not. Nick Howard, who he has very deep conversations with, analyses millions of hands from online data bases and never truly knows how variance is running. Because we play relatively short sessions we tend to see patterns and I, like many others, look for them when we shouldn't really. I recently went over a week without flopping a set, then got 5 in a row, a small sample size so not really relevant, but it can make you start seeing things as abnormal when they probably aren't. Looking at your results on a session by session basis, or even daily or weekly, will possibly show patterns, but if you looked at your total results over all the years, as a whole, the patterns would more likely tend to merge and be much more elusive to see. 

I'm far too guilty of being results orientated, and play far too little to know wether I'm running good or bad, stopping too quickly when I'm ahead for fear of losing it back, or quitting too soon after a bad beat for fear it's going to be one of those days, even when I think I'm playing correctly. It's so hard to put the results behind you, graphs to be updated, bank roll to be checked, but it has to be done. I can see that you've got a harder challenge with being in a much smaller player pool, if you do stop there's still the majority of the same players when you come back, even after a day or two. 

It might not look good me trying to give advice that I find hard to follow myself* but the mental battle has to be overcome if we want to succeed.

 

The answer is somewhere in here, good luck finding it. 👍

coding high resolution GIF by xponentialdesign

*New cash game challenge starts Sunday.

 

 

 

 

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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Thanks guys. I know as humans we look for patterns that aren't there but sometimes it truly feels incomprehensible. I'm not even moaning about running bad for once, just cannot seem to comprehend the streaky nature of seemingly every session.

The bankroll challenge I'm doing deserves an update. I took at shot at the 25s when I got to €1k or whatever it was and just ran insane. Lost most of the games, if not all and I ended up tilt playing one or two 100s (cant remember), which I lost. I was down to €200 and just going to give up on the whole thing, especially because I'm solely playing heads up games, which I'm not going to stream for reasons stated a thousand times. It all feels a bit pointless now, but since the 8th Feb I've been working at the challenge and I was grinding a bunch of 10s, moving up to the 25s again at 1k. There have been a few 50s thrown in and the odd tilted 100/200, but it's been profitable.

(Results since 08/02/20 below)

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Results by stake:

10s - 211 games, €509 profit, 24.1% ROI

25s - 370 games, €644 profit, 6.9% ROI

50s - 33 games, €872 profit, 52.8% ROI :Cool:

100s - 8 games, €24 LOSS, -3% ROI

200s - 2 games, €388 profit, 94% ROI

Total - 624 games, €2,377 profit, 16.7% ROI.  Average buy in €22.77.

1/2 tabling the 50s at the moment, just riding the run good and will move down if I lose a few.  

 

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@Brocky I know it's all relative and you are a pro whereas I'm a part time rec, but that is the sort of graph and overall figures most of us would be happy to have.  If you can produce over €2,000 profit in 18 days when not running well then what are we going to do when you hit a hot streak? :wonder:

Keep it going and focus on the overall results. 👍

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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A decent session this morning but normally as soon as poker starts going well for me, I hit a massive downswing at the higher stakes and go back to square one.  Well instead of that (yet), one of my guinea pigs (the favourite) went for an operation on kidney stones and didn't make it through the other side.  I know most people are going to be like "meh it's only a guinea pig" but I thought that before getting them and they're surprisingly affectionate and are great companions.  Not only did we lose his brother just before his first birthday (they live to 5-7 on average) but we've now lost this one just a few months later.  What pisses me off the most though is the vets.  The first one was in 4 times before he got referred to a specialist, 4 lots of appointment fees + antibiotics + painkillers in which the illness was not related to anything they initially thought and now this one was in 4 times, 4 more lots of payment, with them even having the audacity to charge £170 for effectively killing it today.  I'm just angry.  I've spent hundreds and hundreds on people that are supposedly experts not being able to do their job properly it seems.  Maybe I should quit poker and just become a vet by prescribing medication left, right and centre.  

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BF8F1AD8-1724-4CE7-8A93-E1240EA61A21.thumb.jpeg.176a0512a08405d04b0b9ed992920385.jpeg

 

 

 

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