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2019 - Success or bust has never been more finely balanced


Brocky

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@Brocky That's the spirit! I couldn't agree more, I said in my blog the other day that I think one of the main things that holds people back in poker is the stakes they play. I see people grinding 100k's of hands at micros to get a true idea of their winrate, this is absurd imo, if you are crushing a limit after 20k hands you are wasting your time not moving up.

I personally have set out a very aggro brm approach which quickly allows me to move up stakes with a 5 buy in shot each time, obviously this will mean I will likely be up and down, but at the same time it gets me  lot of experience and a small heater could establish me at a stake months before I would have otherwise got there.

I'm now on the cusp of 25nl so that will be up from 4nl to 25nl in a week, yes I have ran well, but if I had some nitty brm I would still be playing 4nl now, so yeah overall agree with your ideas and think a 20 buy in shot at higher stakes is a great plan and well deserved.

Excited to see how you do.

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Just thought I'd give a quick update while I'm waiting for games.  Stupidly won a bunch betting on one of Andrei's tennis tips last night then put £300 of it on a horse race at 1.83 I think, then chucked that on Spurs at 2.48.  I think I ended up making about £1.8k from those 3.  I then wanted to get back involved at the 200s because I could, had a guy who was really not that good, ended up €1.6k up at one point, he's getting it in ridiculously bad, ridiculously tilted and then all of a sudden he just starts getting there time and time again.  He ends up winning 5 in a row, we start 2 tabling and before I know it another guy (reg maybe?) sits me and I'm bloody 5 tabling the 200s.  It's out of control, I'm clicking all over the place and I'm not sure what day of the week it is, but I refused to lose this rec.  Jesus christ, I lost 8 out of 10 at one point and I was pretty sure I was going to bust my account.  I'm literally getting coolered on every table so I decide that enough is enough and I need to stop this session, rebuild tomorrow.  As I'm finishing up I think I win 4 of the 5 tables open and to my surprise I'm actually up €1.1k still (about 200 of it is rakeback).  One more for luck and I lose.  Shock!

So I've moved down to the 100s for now, first game I lose JJ vs 88 (here we go...), still up a decent chunk today, especially if you include the bets and I've earned a bunch in rakeback.  Graph to follow later, it's all over the place because it is like 50% 25s with little variance and then 10/15bi swing at the 200s so it just looks stupid!

 

 

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Poker is such a weird ❤️♥️❤️ game.  It's the only thing in the whole of the world where you can be the world's worst player and you can beat the world's best on multiple occasions.  Today has possibly been the most draining session I've ever had.  I've lost money, not much, but I would imagine my EV would be somewhere around €2k+, yet I'm down.  I can't even begin to explain what I've been through tonight, I really can't.  I feel like nobody goes through this at these stakes.  Honestly, if I ran at EV at the 200s I'd be so wealthy it's unreal.  I carried on playing the same rec from earlier, we must have played around 90 games today.

I know nobody cares about other peoples bad beats but I feel so helpless at the 200s I need to post some just as a reminder that it's not me just getting outplayed.

Let's give you a bit of perspective on the guy I should've crushed for 2-3k.  This is the last game, I limp at 23bb, he jams pre.  

1.PNG.e02bfe3eda2263c03498cbf0bef4d038.PNG

Here's a few that I could find:

All in on turn, no worries.

2.PNG.da0ae5f0968dac6315fa370eaf172697.PNG3.PNG.f73141e9cc3dd82258e4f64454741add.PNG

All in on the flop with a gutshot :Rofl:

4.PNG.db7df9d00321d40b84217586f5c4b3ef.PNG5.PNG.251293a50ac67bc3dd0701efc39d8e57.PNG

Couldn't get pics of some of the others but here we go...

Just the top full house into quads against a guy who's been bluffing like it's going out of fashion

6.PNG.7a967cf6f08c8a094c2f7dfaae9d19e1.PNG

I check raise 2 pair on the turn fairly big, obviously his pair of 3s is a snap call...

7.PNG.9a2f671c4deafb75812caf928c19788a.PNG

This is the reg from the other day who always changes name.  I check raise knowing he's going to go crazy.. oh just the running tens for you sir

8.PNG.1dc8581355ee202ee230bcb9bc83429e.PNG

I also had another hand vs that guy where I raise pre with AT he flats, flop A73, he check/calls my c bet, turn T (no f/d on board), he checks, I barrel, he jams, I snap, he has KQ and the river is the beautiful jack.  

I really don't care how bitter or whatever I come across right now.  For as long as I just keep getting absolutely ❤️♥️❤️ed by the RNG I will moan about my luck.  

On the plus side I got over 150k challenge points today but most of the rakeback I received just minimises the losses as opposed to increasing profit.  I guess I'm supposed to wake up again tomorrow and put in another 10 hours as I've done today.  It's hard to find the reason to right now...

 

 

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It was just about the time when it will happen,sadly of course. 

From your posts I can see that you have right mindset and you are aware of everything what poker brings therefore @Brocky hold your hands on stick and glide through those tourboulences. 😉

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Cheers mate!

 

In reference to the grind, I'm bored of complaining, but I don't know what else to say to be honest. Anyone that saw my stream tonight can vouch for how brutal it was and it's been no better since grinding off-stream. Every day I think to myself that the bad luck in the past has no impact on today's session, that running bad at the 200s previously has no impact on how they go today but every single day I just got worn down more and more by this ❤️♥️❤️. It's so draining, it's so demoralising. I sit here and think "this just has to turn around at some point" but variance has no memory and it doesn't have to do anything. I'm so lost at the moment, it's not the money that bothers me, I am not fazed by the stakes I am playing but it's just how relentless the beating is. I was playing a reg at the 100s just now, he wins AJ vs AQ and AJ vs AK for stacks on 2 games simultaneously, then in the final game I check/raise 64 on A86 because I know he's going to go mental, he snap jams Q5, I hold and have 1850 chips yet still lose the game. The blinds were 30/60 and he doubled once then I folded 7 hands in a row. I know he's jamming almost any two, my calling range should be super wide yet I'm sitting here getting dealt 52o, 92o etc. It's such a horrible feeling because you can't do anything.

 

I'm probably just going to move down stakes but the challenge points offer a great earning potential at the 100/200s. It's super disappointing but I don't know how else to deal with such negative variance.

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doyle.jpg.f1c4c50c81f1e898d26cb93adae469fb.jpg

I watched last night & it really was brutal Mate... it was unbelievable how lucky the villain was @ times. 

I hope your luck changes soon. It's heartbreaking to see a player of your caliber be so unlucky like that, for that long man. 

All I can say is hang in there Buds, the varience will swing your way, it must. I am officially anouncing that your NL200 table curse is broken... LOL ( there, now you can go on & build up your bank roll again & go on to crush it @ the 200's )

Looking forward to seing you dominate the 200's soon Boss. 

Happy Thursday !

pants.jpg.bcfc35191ffb7073f66b6e209219f564.jpg

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Always remember... You can be... do... or have anything your heart desires !
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That guy who you played with several times last night, something like "Bow8", was ridiculous. Probably he was drunk, or something like that. That was the easiest 188 euros ever when he was in sit out mode while playing on the other table 🤣 Its crazy when i say ahh, 1-2 euro level is full of mental midgets and you can find the same at the 200`s. You will beat this kind of donks on the long run, just stay strong :popeye:

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Thanks guys, I ended up losing like 5 in a row at the end of the night as well, it was just becoming stupid.

 

Time to get the thread back on track though. I'm going to move back down to the 25/50s and just rebuild some confidence. I have no doubt I'm good enough to at least be a small winner at the 100s+ but when variance is against you there is nothing you can do. I'm gutted because if I'd had just ran at EV I would likely have hit 2/3m+ challenge points within a month or so and the rakeback would've been insane. Not to be though.

 

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