Hope you carry on
I,ve been asking myself if these are beatable for a long time - (still non the wiser)
I.m starting to think they,re only worth playing if theres a promo attached
I really am starting to think they're not but even if they are I'm wondering if I want that variance. In my last 28 games I won 3, 2 of them 1.5x. That's ridiculous.
I hit another 100x on stream today, I also hit my first ever 25x, finished 2nd in both. I played 131 games on stream and still lost around 7bi despite the big multipliers, which is brutal. They're also really tiring to play, 6 tabling.
Here's a graph:
I'm winning at pretty much exactly 1 in 3. I definitely feel like my true WR is probably closer to 36/37% but the variance is obviously huge. Without the 2 100x multipliers (which you're only supposed to hit 1 in 20000 each) I would be very much down for the challenge.
Another thing to factor in is rake. 362 games at the lowly €10 games is still €247 rake which is a lot to be paying.
My apologies for ending this so quickly but I feel like heads up is a much more solid and steady grind. For reference, here was the first week of October where I played solely €25 HU games and won 80bi after RB:
Really enjoyed the couple of streams I did though, you guys were great as always
A great effort @Brocky but it seems the majority opinion was correct in that it was going to be extremely tough. I certainly couldn't handle the swings, 4-5 buy ins down on relatively sedate cash tables and I'm creeping towards panic mode.
It was nice to watch the streaming again for a while and good luck with the HU.
Cheers Griz. I do feel a bit of a fraud giving up so early but if I'm honest I naively went into it thinking the high rake and faster speed would be offset by the games being considerably softer. What I found though was that 1 or 2 tabling these may be fairly profitable from an ROI sense because of the focus you can put into each decision but from a pure monetary sense, I believe you need to be mass-tabling them as rakeback certainly comes into play. At the higher stakes you will easily hit 40-50% RB but at the 10s, you're needing to play 300+ games per day, which long term is going to create big swings for the sake of not many euros.
There's just a lot of factors that make these somewhat unbeatable including the rake and super quick blinds. As I mentioned on stream the majority of your sessions are decided almost solely on how you do in the 5x/10x multipliers as anything above this is going to be so rare it's not really going to have an impact long term. You can easily win just 30% of games but profit for the session and vice versa at 37% win-rate. I thought moving down to the 10s would negate the impact of the swings but I was wrong. I lost almost 50bi on the first day of playing these, I've never lost 50bi playing heads up that I can remember.
Add to that I am not the strongest 3 handed player, plus I will be taking lower EV lines heads up because I've got more tables and less time, there didn't seem to be much point continuing when I could just grind heads up instead.
Fair play to anyone that can grind these full time.
Therefore the plan is:
10k games at €10 level, maybe some €25s thrown in if it's going well.
31 days to complete it.
If I lose 100bi I will be done with the challenge.
322.5 games per day needed to complete this.
If all goes to plan, 690k challenge points.
Will update daily of course! Let's go
@Brocky I don't know if you already mentioned, but can you give me a guidelile on many points can you earn on HU SNG's?
Somethink like 100 HU SNG's * 10 Stake for example, you can make on average X Challenge Points.
Or any kind of guidelines to calculate them.