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What to bet on?


XY

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Hi guys,would really like to hear your opinion on this matter. 😃


Lately I am struggling to find value on soccer matches.New rules,such as offside,VAR and yellow/red card interpretation,made tough job for us,bettors.
Ex.proffesional football players bacame coaches,applying stile of play that is currently,what is to believe,best working,but unpredictable if you match them.This stile is,nowdays,applied in almost all football leagues,even lower ones.
With all taking into consideration,can`t find market that is predictable, therefore profitable. :sad:

Would really like to hear what is situation in other sports.Tagging @AndreiBN here,I would really like to hear your opinion on this matter. 😃
What I have notice is that win is based on serve,segment that was not such important few years ago.Psychological preparation has always been most importat thing in tennis,nowdays feel it is crucial.But we can`t measure it,therefore can`t include that before making a bet.

What about basketball? Nowdays matches easily goes over 200 points,which few years ago wasn`t that reachable.Last shots became match winners.Etc.
Would like to hear you @JeppeL ,if you are allowed to express your opinion. 😃

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Must admit I read your post 7 times to understand. 🤣
My intention,by tagging you,was to hear your opinion on basketball nowaday.Based on earlier posts,have feeling you are watching basketball closely,so wonded if you could express your own opinon considering your position here. 😃

Yeah,even though I like current "default" stile,with tight space between defenders and attackers,high pressing (with/without the ball),protecting goal with bodies,etc,but also would like to see something old/new.
Cases like Burnley,old english football.Or even better if someone would invent some other cheeky stile,or at least some new tasks for specific position.But I am afraid no one have guts to do it,at least not ex.pro players now as coaches.
Let`s not forget that Guardiola and Mo are famous because soccer world (other clubs) adjusted to them,and their clubs,not other way around. 

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@XY ,

To be honest , it's been a kind of a struggle this year to find some reasoning when betting on tennis. Such a weird year and it might continue like this for a couple of more months , and this makes it extremly difficult in terms of finding valueble bets. 

What has worked for me best in this period was betting on number of games in a set or in a match , in matchups where usually there was very little room for them before. 

On the bright side , it like the fact that there are no more a few clear favourites and that there is space for some surprises and anything can happen. I take that as an extra opportunity for betting and the most important thing to keep in mind is that you need to follow , on a daily base , how players perform in tournaments , when they change court surfaces , and only after that to put your money on tennis. Otherwise , it's just a waste of money and a gamble. Whenever i lose , i feel ok knowing at least i did a bit of research before, rather than just taking a blind guess.

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"When things are bad, it's the best time to reinvent yourself"
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@XY I find it interesting what you mention about the new style of football. If the game is changing and in general the results are becoming more unpredictable, isn't that something which can be predicted by itself? :)
What I mean is that if more teams play better vs the general competition than in the past, wouldn't the leagues then flatten out more overall and not have such large point differentials between the teams? Like everyone being more competitive vs the bigger teams.
I noticed last year that Eibar was either the #1 or #2 pressing team either in La Liga or all of Europe, so no matter who they faced they stuck with their general game plan of pressing as much as possible. Those changes I find very interesting, as it means that Eibar is fully employing a vision of forcing other teams to have to change to them, while Eibar themselves can always stick to their own known strategy. This kind of philosophy has been more used in youth ranks, at least for youth basketball that has always been a pretty big thing :)

If you're aware and notice things like pressure and difference of style in football games @XY , I'd urge you to sign up for the Area 51 board. These kind of things are what they're looking into with new statistics possibly becoming available in the future, which could help you as a player to disect what's happening in these new football philosophies :)

Basketball, like football, has undergone quite a change over the last 15 years, with lots of new strategy coming especially in the last 5 years. Most of it is data driven and has certainly changed the viewing experience. 
As for betting, I think you can definitley find value if you pay attention to the scheduling and opponents. There are tons of NBA games every season where one team has played much more in recent days than their opponent, often they find themselves playing two days in a row while travelling from one city to another in between.
Personally I'm more about team structures though and even though I was biased, I still presented what I thought was the best bet on an NBA champion this year in the Lakers as a promotion here on the community, I really thought they were looking to become a great team due to their construction :)

For the NBA, you can also sometimes find alternative analysis which can be helpful, especially towards stat bets for the regular season, like this one which is pretty hilarious in it's own right:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hwDoaHcXqncb_l24NrxLCWTxE5pLaeKlU8r1Jnp39GQ/edit#gid=1219372767 
https://imgur.com/a/JEhHxkH 


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I think you demanted yourself right there. 😃

It is true that,with new style of play,clubs became closer to big ones,but that is exactly what made soccer matches unpredictable.Isn`t it?

Nowadays,games are often decided by set piece,or some other detail/s,like differently interpreting offence/s (yellow/red cards,penalty) by referee.
We have less,and less,goals scored from open play.
In past you would know which team will start the game by defending deep,letting possesion to opponent.Those game plans where applied by lower clubs against bigger ones.Smaller club/s would steel a point,or three,here and there,but overall that style of play hasn`t been "profitable" on long run.
Those game plans where predictable,therefore you could guess possible outcomes.Make profitable bets.Team with 60+% would have more corners. Defendig team would get more cards,because of passive play.Counter attacks often were execute by only one attacker up front,which wasn't enough to score over one goal,Etc.
Nowdays we have,almost,equal teams because of that appied style.High pressing,on and off the ball,protecting goal with number of bodies,closer attention to free kicks and corners,game plan is variable through the match,etc.

With all being said,I am struggling to find markets that are exploitable.Yes,we still can squize some juices based on math and trading,but to predict the outcome with some special bets made,is impossible.
How can you predict which game plan will apply coach,especially new ones,considering nowdays style of play? How can we predict which game plan coach decided for set-piece? Where can we find informations,and predict,are club players tired? Where can we find informations,and predict,about their psychological state?

Taking all into consideration,I can`t find things that could be predictable,therefore profitable to make a bet on.There is much more unmeasurable things deciding the outcome.

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First time I did some bets spreaded over different football matches, with succes. However I found out it's in general too hard to predict to make it profitable unless you play it smart. For example "double chance" is an easy way for pretty safe bets which means pretty much that a certain club will not lose a match, so draw or win and u win the bet.

 

I also bet on boxing sometimes, since I'm into the sport for a long time and there are some fights that are really good to bet on, for example Mayweather vs Mcgregor many ppl seemed to actually think Mcgregor could win that fight so the odds were good, about 1.2 as I remember, that was easy money.

Recently however I laughed my ass off when I lost a bet which I thought was pretty safe of a heavywEight boxing match, Whyte vs Povetkin. Whyte being unbeaten for a long while, other boxer smaller and over 40 years old, he went down twice already so I thought my money was in the pocket, then suddenly boom, an uppercut that took out Whyte, didn't get up and game over.. Never laughed taht much at my misfortune haha..

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