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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Sorry there hasn't been any written analysis added in a while. I obviously want to add the bets to the thread as early as possible, to give you plenty of time to place the bet, and often I expect the odds to decrease. The decrease in odds is actually why I haven't added much analysis lately. When I've had the time to write, the odds has always slashed, and the value has been gone. This is of course a good sign, but at the same time I want to provide you with more information about the bets I recommend. I promise there'll be some analysis for the matches this weekend.

I've got one more bet for you for today:

Schalke 04 vs FC Köln - Under 0.5 goals - Odds 11 CashCashCashCash

It's a public holiday in Malta today, and I was out yesterday, so I'm gonna go back to sleeping now, and probably won't wake up before the game is about to start Very Happy If I do wake up before, I'll add some analysis Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

A depressing time to be Schalke fan AnnoyedDissatisfiedSadVeryangryDisappointedScared

Result so far:
Bets: 21

Won: 8
Average odds: 3.8

Average bet value: 104.7
ROI: +3.5
Units: +0.6

An Excel sheet with the bets placed so far can be found here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0. Going forward I'll post status posts like this after each round.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

First bet for the weekend:

FC Köln vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.25 CashCash

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg, 24/09 18:30 CET - 1X2: 1- odds currently too low (3.65), but should increase closer to kickoff. Should be at least 3.90 before bet is placed - I'll keep an eye on the odds movement and post when/if I place the bet

battleofthenorth.gif

The battle of the north! The Bremen players looked like wights (or walkers, if you're more into the walking dead) under Skripnik

Skripnik gone and just 4 days later there was already progress on the pitch. As I've mentioned before, the morale and attitude looked like a big problem under Skripnik, and with Skripnik gone that seemed to had changed for the better against Mainz - a game where they started great but didn't really deserve 3 points after the 90 minutes. The probability of the bad streak continuing is significant, but I think the public will focus too much on the 4 lost games and -11 goalscore, resulting in value closer to kickoff.

This is a good bet because

  • Even though Nouri isn't a permanent solution on the bench, it's very, very likely that he'll be in charge of the team again against Wolfsburg. He only had two days on the training ground with the team before the game against Mainz, but as mentioned above, I think there was a clear difference between the Werder team we saw under Skripnik and the Werder team we saw against Mainz. They didn't have the same dead look in their eyes or despairing attitude. 
  • Before the season I suggested a bet on HSV to finish best in the north, as I expected both Werder and Wolfsburg to disappoint, and disappointed they have (unfortunately HSV have been horrible as well). Wolfsburg have continued where they left off last season, and they don't look like a team that'll be fighting for the Champions League spots this year. The 1-5 game against Dortmund showed just how far they are from being among the best in the league.
  • Wolfsburg are not doing great, when they're not playing at Volkswagen Arena. Last season they won just 3 of their away games (9 wins at home), they only managed to score an average of 0.88 goals and conceded an average of 1.88 goals away. 
  • Wolfsburg are without Gustavo, Guilavogui and Divadi - Gustavo might be ready, but I doubt it.

You might lose the bet because

  • Well, it's tempting to say because Werder have perfected playing like a sack of potatoes (Danish saying). The bad streak shouldn't be ignored, and Wolfsburg are a much better team on paper.
  • Werder still struggle with a lot of injuries: Pizarro, Bartels, Kruse, Bargfrede, Garcia and Caldirola.
  • Last season Werder almost got the same number of points away as at home - previous seasons this hasn't been the case though.

Expected lineups and team news

Werder

Werder against Wolfsburg.PNG

 WolfsburgWolfsburg against Werder.PNG

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of Werder winning to be 27 %.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Unibet now with odds 4 on Werder, which is the highest on the market at the moment. It's tempting to place the bet now, as there's good value, but I think there might be even better value if we wait a little Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

There's so much value in this round of the Bundesliga, but unfortunately the Unibet traders agree too much with me about almost all of the matches, having the markets lowest odds on the interesting outcomes. There's good value in under 3.5 goals in this game, just not at Unibet.

I've chosen a bit alternative bet on this game:

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Aubameyang not to score - Odds 2.38 Cash

EDIT: I was bit fast posting that bet. I actually think there's even better value in Götze not to score, so will have two bets on tonight's game. Götze has played 140 minutes in the Bundesliga this season, and he's only had 1 shot on goal and 4 passes that lead to a shot. Depending on how the match evolves, I think it's very likely that he'll get 60-70 minutes on the pitch.

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Götze not to score - Odds 1.68 CashCash

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Still odds 4 but was down to 3.95 earlier today. Let's place the bet now. There's a chance it'll be a little higher closer to kickoff, but I'm not so sure about the odds development in the next 19 hours.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Two more bets for tomorrow:

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Ingolstadt - Borussia -1.5 - Odds 3.25 Cash

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.95 Cash

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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gillvs77 Rank 17
Rank 17

for Werder Bremen- Wolfsburg I think under 2.5, I only see Werder win if they can keep clean sheet, I took X & under 2.5 @~5 somewhere, also trying 0-0 CS

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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@gillvs77 wrote:

@for Werder Bremen- Wolfsburg I think under 2.5, I only see Werder win if they can keep clean sheet, I took X & under 2.5 @~5 somewhere, also trying 0-0 CS


I totally agree that the over/under value is in under. Unibet just don't have very high odds on this outcome, compared to the competitors (2.35 and it's been 2.74 on other sites, when it was highest) Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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