Sorry there hasn't been any written analysis added in a while. I obviously want to add the bets to the thread as early as possible, to give you plenty of time to place the bet, and often I expect the odds to decrease. The decrease in odds is actually why I haven't added much analysis lately. When I've had the time to write, the odds has always slashed, and the value has been gone. This is of course a good sign, but at the same time I want to provide you with more information about the bets I recommend. I promise there'll be some analysis for the matches this weekend.
I've got one more bet for you for today:
Schalke 04 vs FC Köln - Under 0.5 goals - Odds 11
It's a public holiday in Malta today, and I was out yesterday, so I'm gonna go back to sleeping now, and probably won't wake up before the game is about to start If I do wake up before, I'll add some analysis
A depressing time to be Schalke fan
Result so far:
Average odds: 3.8
Average bet value: 104.7
An Excel sheet with the bets placed so far can be found here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0. Going forward I'll post status posts like this after each round.
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg, 24/09 18:30 CET - 1X2: 1- odds currently too low (3.65), but should increase closer to kickoff. Should be at least 3.90 before bet is placed - I'll keep an eye on the odds movement and post when/if I place the bet
Skripnik gone and just 4 days later there was already progress on the pitch. As I've mentioned before, the morale and attitude looked like a big problem under Skripnik, and with Skripnik gone that seemed to had changed for the better against Mainz - a game where they started great but didn't really deserve 3 points after the 90 minutes. The probability of the bad streak continuing is significant, but I think the public will focus too much on the 4 lost games and -11 goalscore, resulting in value closer to kickoff.
This is a good bet because
You might lose the bet because
Expected lineups and team news
Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of Werder winning to be 27 %.
Unibet now with odds 4 on Werder, which is the highest on the market at the moment. It's tempting to place the bet now, as there's good value, but I think there might be even better value if we wait a little
There's so much value in this round of the Bundesliga, but unfortunately the Unibet traders agree too much with me about almost all of the matches, having the markets lowest odds on the interesting outcomes. There's good value in under 3.5 goals in this game, just not at Unibet.
I've chosen a bit alternative bet on this game:
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Aubameyang not to score - Odds 2.38
EDIT: I was bit fast posting that bet. I actually think there's even better value in Götze not to score, so will have two bets on tonight's game. Götze has played 140 minutes in the Bundesliga this season, and he's only had 1 shot on goal and 4 passes that lead to a shot. Depending on how the match evolves, I think it's very likely that he'll get 60-70 minutes on the pitch.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Götze not to score - Odds 1.68
Still odds 4 but was down to 3.95 earlier today. Let's place the bet now. There's a chance it'll be a little higher closer to kickoff, but I'm not so sure about the odds development in the next 19 hours.
@for Werder Bremen- Wolfsburg I think under 2.5, I only see Werder win if they can keep clean sheet, I took X & under 2.5 @~5 somewhere, also trying 0-0 CS
I totally agree that the over/under value is in under. Unibet just don't have very high odds on this outcome, compared to the competitors (2.35 and it's been 2.74 on other sites, when it was highest)