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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Borussia M'Gladbach vs Werder Bremen, 17/09 18:30 CET - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38 CashCash

It was a bit of a mystery to me, why Werder decided to extend Skripnik's contract, and many fans of the green-whites felt the same. It didn't take long before the German media started talking about the hot seat in Bremen - one game to be more precise - and I doubt he'll make it till the end of October. The team from Bremen has got 0 points and a 1-8 score, and with the next 3 games being against Gladbach, Mainz and Wolfsburg, it's definitely possible that the club will have 0 points after 5 games.
Gladbach have gotten off to a decent start, although the 3-1 defeat to Freiburg was a dissapointment - I think Freiburg will have a very decent season and maybe finish mid-table. If the team wish to qualify for Champions League again, a home game against a team as Werder must be won, and even though Gladbach might suffer a serious defeat against City today, I don't think Werder stand a chance against a strong Gladbach offensive.

This is a good bet because

  • Werder are really struggling with injuries at the moment. Caldirola, Moisander, Bargfrede, Garcia, Kruse and the one and only Pizarro are all players that would have a very good chance of starting, if it wasn't because they were out with an injury.
  • As we saw against Bayern and to some extend Augsburg, Werder probably has the worst playing defense in the league. The great Dane (Vestergaard), Djilobodji and Galvez (62 games played last season) all left Werder, and the newcomers Moisander (injured), Diagne and Sané haven't been able to stabilize the defense yet.
  • Despite his age (37), Pizarro is still a great striker - 14 goals in 1739 minutes last season - but without him (and Kruse), the Werder attack is not exactly something that'll make defenders lose sleep. 
  • The older players would usually be the ones that a team look to, when facing a tough time, but players like Fritz (35), Bartels (29) and Selassie (29) have played terrible and looked like they'd rather be at home than on the pitch - Kicker average grades 3.75, 5 and 5.25 respectively (1 best, 6 worst).
  • When the two teams met in February, Gladbach annihilated Werder 5-1. Borussia-Park is a bit of a fortress; have won the last 7 home games in the Bundesliga and if we ignore the bad start to last season, they only lost to Dortmund and even managed a 3-1 victory against Bayern. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Gladbach are playing today against City and won't have as fresh legs as the Werder players. I don't think a 2-4 goals defeat against City is that unlikely, so it might not be a Gladbach team full of self-confidence, that'll go on the pitch.
  • I honestly can't think of any more good reasons for this bet to be a loosing one Smile

Expected lineups and team news

Gladbach
Gladbach against werder.PNG

 

 WerderWerder against Gladbach.PNG

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of Gladbach winning with two or more to be 44 %, giving a bet value of 104.7

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

One more bet on the 3rd Bundesliga round:

Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig - AG: Sabitzer - odds 4.10 CashCash

And these are the bets posted earlier this week.

FC Köln vs SC Freiburg - AG: Philipp - Odds 5.00 CashCashCashCash
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen  - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38 CashCash
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 4.25 CashCash
Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - Odds 3.20 CashCash

Philipp is still at 5.0, Gladbach almost at the same (2.35), no longer any value in Frankfurt victory (odds 4 at the moment) and Huntelaar is still at 3.2.
If you'd like a slightly higher odds than 3.20 on the Schalke game, there's also okay value in Choupo to score at odds 4.6.

I'll try and add written analysis for 1-2 more bets this week - definitely won't manage them all.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Looks like I'll finally manage a positive ROI after this week Smile

I expected Werder to be horrible, but I am a little surprised they're this bad. Could've been 5-0, and only 22 minutes played. I've watched all their games this season, and it's just getting worse and worse. If Skrypnyk is the still in charge against Mainz on Wednesday, I see great value in an away victory. So, the first bet on the 4th round of the Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen vs Mainz - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.70

The odds are slashing as I'm writing this, and if Mainz do okay tomorrow, I'd expect the odds on an away victory to be around 2.45 before the match starts.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
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Odds on Unibet now 2.50, and Skripnik got fired fired this morning = no longer any value in this bet. Hope you were fast and managed to put a bit of money on the bet Smile

Alexander Nouri (U 23 coach) will be sitting in the hot seat against Mainz, as not only Skripnik but also the two assistants (Frings and Kohfeldt) were let go. It's difficult to say what effect this will have, but I'd rather that Skripnik would have stayed - for the sake of the bet, not Werder Laugh
Nouri will have two days on the training ground with the team, so it probably won't have much of an effect. The morale and attitude has, in my opinion, been a huge issue in the first games, so it'll be interesting to see, how the team react to the new coach Smile

If you read German, here's more information from Werder's website: http://www.werder.de/aktuell/news/profis/20162017/nouri-uebernimmt-fuer-skripnik-18092016/ Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
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Unibet still only has 1X2 offers on the "Englische Woche"*, so it's a bit difficult to find good early bets. I have managed to find another one though:

VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund - 1X2: 2 - Odds 1.9

I haven't had time to write analysis to as many bets as I'd like, but I promise to write one for this bet. Should be posted tomorrow, if the odds hasn't decreased Smile 

*"Englische Woche" = English week. It's a term that's commonly used in Germany, to describe a week where three Bundesliga games are to be played in 7 days (e.g. Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday). The teams in England play more games than the German counterparts, and fairly often play mid-week as well, hence the name.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 20
Rank 20

Dortmund now down to 1.75.

From 09-15 there have been 123 cases of a road favorite starting with 2.00 or lower and dropping odds in the Bundesliga. Home team won 22%, Away team won 58 %, 20 % of those games ended in a draw. Betting on every road favorite would have given you -10 % ROI, betting on every home underdog would have given you +28 % ROI.

The BVB played great and rested half of the team against Darmstadt, but Darmstadt shouldn't even play in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg won in Augsburg and drew twice against Hoffenheim and Köln while keeping a clean sheet. I think the BVB will win, but there's absolutely no value there. Don't forget, in their only away game this season against Rote Brause Leipzig, Dortmund looked really bad.

Speaking of no goals, what's up with S04 this year? 3 games, 3 losses, 0 goals scored. Next game against red hot Köln...


@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

Unibet still only has 1X2 offers on the "Englische Woche"*, so it's a bit difficult to find good early bets. I have managed to find another one though:

VfL Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund - 1X2: 2 - Odds 1.9

I haven't had time to write analysis to as many bets as I'd like, but I promise to write one for this bet. Should be posted tomorrow, if the odds hasn't decreased Smile 

*"Englische Woche" = English week. It's a term that's commonly used in Germany, to describe a week where three Bundesliga games are to be played in 7 days (e.g. Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday). The teams in England play more games than the German counterparts, and fairly often play mid-week as well, hence the name.


 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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BonusPater Rank 24
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@WuDu wrote:

Dortmund now down to 1.75.

From 09-15 there have been 123 cases of a road favorite starting with 2.00 or lower and dropping odds in the Bundesliga. Home team won 22%, Away team won 58 %, 20 % of those games ended in a draw. Betting on every road favorite would have given you -10 % ROI, betting on every home underdog would have given you +28 % ROI.

The BVB played great and rested half of the team against Darmstadt, but Darmstadt shouldn't even play in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg won in Augsburg and drew twice against Hoffenheim and Köln while keeping a clean sheet. I think the BVB will win, but there's absolutely no value there. Don't forget, in their only away game this season against Rote Brause Leipzig, Dortmund looked really bad.

Speaking of no goals, what's up with S04 this year? 3 games, 3 losses, 0 goals scored. Next game against red hot Köln... 


Once again some interesting numbers, but I obviously don't agree about the no value part Smile
The average probability (for the 35 bookmakers I use) for 1X2 is currently at 22-24-54, which gives a bet value 102.6. My personal estimation is 20-25-55, which gives a nice value of 104.5 - no value in odds 1.75 though. I agree with your numbers in the sense that one should be extra cautious when looking at 1-x-2 odds this low. I usually play on the underdog, and as it's already evident from the bets I've posted, I'm not a big fan of odds lower than 2.5. That being said, of course there can be value in the favorite as well. It'd be easy - a little too easy - if there was always value in the underdog Smile 

I'm not gonna comment on Schalke. It has never been an easy team to support - a lot of emotional ups and downs (mostly downs in recent yearsTeardropWaterfall) - and this season doesn't seem to be any different. After taking a step forward against both Bayern and Nizza, we took two steps backwards today. I won't be surprised if Schalke win 3-0 on Wednesday, but I also feel the exact same way about a 0-3 defeat. Gotta Heart Die Königsblauen Cool
I feel like there's great value potential in the Schalke games, but at the same time it's so unpredictable. Under 2.5 against Köln is interesting. What do your numbers say about that bet? Smile 

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 20
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But have you ever tested your personal value estimations over a longer period of time? That could be a nice project for you, set up an Excel spreadsheet, put your estimations in before gameday, put the real results in afterwards and after 1 or 2 full seasons you can run a nice correlation analysis and see whether or not your knowledge of the Bundesliga is superior to the bookies. 

How do you know that your assessment of 55 % for a BVB victory is correct? What if it's really just 52 % or 51.3 %, can you tell? What I want to say is that I doubt that you're able to profit with margins as low as that: 55 % means you need odds of 1,82 to break even however you would place a bet at just 1.90. That's just 0,08 points in your favor, that's not really value for you, as too much can happen to hurt your personal ROI in the long run...

I don't have numbers on over/unders in general, too time consuming for me to compute and I doubt it's even worth it. I mean every team has the goal to win a game (except in China's Super League or in Italy's Serie B of course Cool) but no coach goes into a match and says "I don't care about the result as long as we score 2 goals ourselves".

Yes, Schalke is emotional and thus it lacks stability. Heidel is a great manager and Weinzierl is a great coach, however I'll give you two more losses until the first supporters on Transfermarkt will start to campaign for Huub Stevens...

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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BonusPater Rank 24
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I'm not new to betting Wink

When I was more serious about the betting - read the first post in the blog - I tracked all bets, and of course this included tracking the bet value. After several hundred bets (a little more than 3 seasons), my bet value is less than 1.4 % off the ROI. This obviously isn't perfect, and in the first 6 months, the difference was bigger - I've become more conservative with time Smile
As mentioned earlier in the blog, I doubt I'll do as good here, as I've done previously. For two reasons: 1. Can only use odds from Unibet, 2. Don't spend as much time on it, as I used to.

Well, back to the bet. I am pretty confident about my estimation, and even if I'm 1.4 % off, there's still value, even though it's very, very little.

Regarding Schalke. Don't even think two more are needed. If they lose against Köln, the most retarded fans will already start talking about getting a new coach. Just the way it is with Schalke - both love and hate all the emotions Smile

EDIT: I do have a spreadsheet for the bets posted here. I'll upload it later today Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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WuDu Rank 20
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Great game from the BVB, game could have ended 7-4 as well instead of 5-1, so your hunch was correct. Still, to me the odds were way too low, Gladbach in Freiburg 2 weeks ago and Hoffenheim in Darmstadt today had similar odds movements for road favorites and those games didn't end so well for the favs...

Dortmund now with 17 goals in the last 3 games, Guerreiro seems like the real deal...

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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