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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Odds on HSV continue to slash, and even though it's probably going to increase again close to kickoff, it's extremely unlikely it'll hit 8.5.

I've also been having an eye on Augsburg to win against Werder, but I wan't the odds to get close to 3.3, before I recommend it, and that doesn't seem to happen either Dissatisfied

Ribery to score just opened in 2.65, which is a little less than I had hoped for. In the unlikely event that Caicara will start, I do think there's a bit of value in this bet. I had hoped Niederlechner would open in a higher odds as well, considering how high it was last round. Might post an AG bet later today, but it doesn't look as good as last week.


@WuDu wrote:

I think we can agree that the typical "extreme" football fan from the Ruhrgebiet is not someone you want your daughter to marry. Very Happy Who's Schalke playing this year in the Europa League? Nothing like watching your favorite team play Vladivostok or Dynamo Minsk on Thursdays...Happy


I've only met nice and easy-going Schalke supporters from the Ruhrgebiet Wink
I can live with EL, as long as we beat that ridiculous team a bit East of GElsenkirchen, the 29th of October.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

One more bet on this match: Both teams to score, odds 1.90.

Quick recap of bets for the 2nd round (more might be added later):
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München
Over 2.5 goals, odds 1.5 
Both teams to score, odds 1.9

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund
Over 3.5 goals, odds 2.55

The Dortmund bet has, as expected and mentioned in the post, slashed to 2.38 = no longer any value in this bet. Over 2.5 in Schalke has increased a little and is now at 1.54 = decent value in this bet.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
Bets: 4

Won: 1
Average bet value: 105
ROI: -38
Units: -1.52

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg, 11/09 15:30 CET - Goals by away team: over 1.5 - odds 2.43

Analysis will be added tomorrow, as I don't have time today Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
Bets: 4
Won: 1
Average bet value: 105
ROI: -38
Units: -1.52 

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München, 09/09 20:30 CET - Caicara to get booked - odds 3.2 CashCashCash

Caicara had a horrible start to the season, and he's not very likely to start against Bayern - if he doesn't start, the bet will be voided. If he does start however, I think it's very likely he'll get all 90 minutes on the pitch - Bayern are likely to go in the lead, and Caicara is the best RB in the squad, when it comes to attacking. Schalke is expected to get under a lot of pressure, and the defenders will surely have a busy day at the offie. Caicara will, if he starts, be responsible for taking care of a Ribery in great form.
The Brazilian has made a habit of getting stupid yellow cards, and the pace of Ribery could very well result in a yellow card today.
Caicara has played roughly 1950 minutes of Bundesliga (21 full matches + a bit) and he's been booked in 8 of the games.

I estimate the chance of Caicara to get booked to be 34 %, giving a very decent bet value of 108.8

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, 10/09 15:30 CET - First Goalscorer: Philipp - odds 10

Will usually not post this close to kickoff, but in this case I wanted to see the starting 11's first. Don't have time to write any analysis for this one.

EDIT: damn it. Philipp just scored a good goal, but it was the second of the match. First wanted to bet on him as AG, but after a chat with Marco-Unibet, I decided to go with a first goalscorer bet instead.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, 10/09 15:30 CET - First Goalscorer: Philipp - odds 10

Will usually don't post this close to kickoff, but in this case I wanted to see the starting 11's first. Don't have time to write any analysis for this one.


Incredible how unlucky I've been with the goalscorer bets so far. Philipp just scored a great goal, but unfortunately Hazard scored the first one in the 1st half.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

And HSV in the lead - the odds opened at 8, which did have a bit of value, but I wanted it to reach 8.5 before posting the pick. Instead of increasing, the odds slashed rather fast and never reached 8 again. I've been active at several different sites in the past 5 years, and this is without comparison the worst and most unlucky start I've ever had Sad

Variance is a bitch, but a good streak must start soon Smile

EDIT: Philipp with another goal.... At least it's now 1-1 in Leverkusen, so don't have to feel bad about not posting that pick Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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desinere Rank 16
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Joel "Jolle" Pohjanpalo WTG Finland's own boy in Bundesliga
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Had Wagner to score Sunday, but forgot to add the pick to this thread Waterfall - insane match btw. This is how it looks so far (had Philipp scored a bit earlier, the ROI would've been +66....):

Result so far:
Bets: 10

Won: 2
Average odds: 3.5

Average bet value: 104.6
ROI: -45
Units: -4.1

Historically I'm not doing great in Champions League - slightly higher RTP than the theoretical RTP, but still loosing - but not having any bets on the first Champions League round is simply not an option, when there're 4 German teams playing Smile 
As I know I'm probably not going to make any money on this long-term, I'm only betting 0.25 units per bet. I doubt I'll have any time for written analysis, but if I do, I'll add it Tuesday. Here're the bets:
KP Legia Warszawa vs Borussia Dortmund - AG: Aubameyang - odds 1.87
Bayer Leverkusen vs CSKA Moscow - CSKA to win - odds 6.00
Manchester City vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - AH City -2 - odds 2.95

In Europa League I've actually done pretty well, but it's probably just variance (have two won bets with an odds higher than 7). Got one bet for Thursday, and again it's just 0.25 units. Might add another one when the AG odds are up.
Nice vs Schalke 04 - AH Schalke -1 - odds 4.40

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Early bets on the 3rd Bundesliga round:

FC Köln vs SC Freiburg - AG: Philipp - Odds 5.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen  - AH Borussia -1.5 - Odds 2.38
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - 1X2: 1 - Odds 4.25
Hertha Berlin vs Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - Odds 3.20

Written analysis will be added later in the week Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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