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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

Result so far:
No bets settled.

Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48

This is an Asian Handicap bet on Bayern München. If Bayern win with 4 or more, the bet is won, if Bayern win with 3, the bet is voided and if Bayern lose, draw or win with two or less, the bet is lost. 

The title favorites from the south against the relegation contenders from the north. The fans of "Die Grün-Weißen" surely look back at the 2003-2004 season with longing. Just 10 years ago, the team from Bremen was the main title contenders along with Bayern. Today they're merely considered a mediocre team by Bundesliga standards, and they're expected to finish in the bottom half of the table this season. 
Bayern is hated and loved for the dominance in recent years (among other things) and the bookmakers estimate their chance of winning this season to be almost 90 %!
This is David against Goliath, and I don't think the outcome will be close to that of the Books of Samuel. It's not a question of whether Bayern will win, it's a question of how much they'll win.

This is a good bet because

  • Bremen have had a bad pre-season and Sunday they lost 2-1 in the German Cup against Sportfreunde Lotte. The name sounds familiar? Probably not; they played Regionalliga last season and are playing in the 3rd best division this season. Defensively Bremen has looked weak, and it's honestly difficult to predict who'll be in the starting 11, as no one really has impressed.
  • Not only did Bremen lose the game against a 3rd division team, Max Kruse also got seriously injured. Kruse came from Wolfsburg this season and was supposed to form a goal scoring duo with Pizarro. Speaking of Pizarro; the Peruvian probably wont be ready for the Bayern game either.
  • In Bayern's 17 home games last season, 6 of them was won with a goal margin of 4 or more and 2 were won with a goal margin of 3. In the home game against Werder (March) they won 5-0 - they also met in the German Cup a month later, where Bayern won 2-0.
  • Last season Bayern managed an impressive 18.4 shots per game and 80 goals (2.35 per game, 3 per home game).
  • Bayern have had a decent pre-season and a good start to the season. First they won 2-0 against Dortmund in the Super Cup (the result does not reflect how good Dortmund actually played in this game - hurts a little to write those words) and Friday they won 0-5 against Carl Zeiss Jenna. Lewandowski scored the first three goals of the game. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Of Bremen's 9 lost away games last season, 5 of them were with a goal margin of 1, and just 3 were with a goal margin of 3 or more. On average, Bremen conceded 1.91 goals per match, 2.06 in away games.
  • Bayern are without Coman and Robben. On a more positive note both Alonso and Thiago will be ready for the game this Friday
  • Bayern without Boateng is a much weaker Bayern - in my opinion he's currently the best CD in the world.
  • Despite the good result against Dortmund in the Super Cup, Ancelotti's troops were not at all convincing.

Expected lineups and team news

Bayern
Bayern against Werder.PNGNotable injuries: Boateng, Costa, Robben, Coman, Badstuber

Werder Bremen

Werder against Bayern.PNG

  Notable injuries: Kruse, Pizarro, Bargfrede

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be around 42 %, giving a bet value of 104.2. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.


The odds has, as expected, slashed and is now 2.23 = no longer any value in this bet. Odds on the Huntelaar and the Niederlechner bets remain unchanged.

Kicker just published their expected lineups, and they've got Niederlechner alone upfront and Philipp just behind him - great for the bet, if that'll be the case Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
No bets settled.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Raffael. If Raffael scores, the bet is won. If Raffael isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

Without doubt the most interesting game this round - even as a Schalke fan I think so. It's a game between to Champions League contenders who both want to finish in top 4, and these H2H games are of course very important in that regard. This is a six-pointer.
Both clubs have done reasonably well on the "Transfermarkt" this summer. Leverkusen look slightly stronger on paper, and for Borussia it's pretty much status quo.
Last season the two clubs played some very entertaining matches against each other, with Leverkusen winning the first 5-0 and Borussia taking home a 2-1 victory in the second game. With 67 goals scored and 50 goals concessed last season, Borussia was in general just a very fun team to watch - 3.44 goals per match, on average!

This is a good bet because

  • Borussia have had a good pre-season and perfect start to the season. They won 0-1 against SV Drochtersen/Assel in the German Cup, which is not very impressive, but in the Champions League qualification they won 1-3 and 6-1 against Young Boys. 
  • Borussia-Park is a fortress and the clubs record for last season was 13-1-3 - they had a very bad start to the season with 5 defeats, 2 of them being at home.
  • The bookmakers estimate the chance of Borussia scoring over 1.5 goals to be 46 % and 77 % for over 0.5 goals. As mentioned above, they scored 67 goals last season and at home they managed an average of 2.47 goals.
  • Raffael had a fantastic last season with 13 goals and 10 assists - 13 scored goals is also his average for the last 3 seasons. Not only did he have a great last season, he has also continued his strong form in the pre-season and Champions League qualifiers. Yesterday he scored a hattrick against Young Boys, and looking at Borussias last 7 games, he's scored 7 of their 20 goals (35 %). 
  • Raffael is expected to shoot free kicks and possibly penalties as well. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Raffael doesn't have that many shots on goal per game (2.3), and he scores on 19 % of his shots. His shots are fairly accurate though, having the same shot accuracy as Lewandowski and 3 percentage points higher than e.g. Aubameyang. 
  • Leverkusen have have a good pre-season with victories against Fiorentina (3-1), Sociedad (2-0) and others. In the cup game last weekend they weren't convincing though, just winning 2-1 against SC Hauenstein playing in the "Oberliga".
  • Leverkusen were defensively strong last season, conceding just 1.18 goal per game (1.35 in away games).

Expected lineups and team news

Borussia

Borussia against Bayer.PNG

Injuries: Dominguez, Doucouré, Drmic 3,

Leverkusen

bayer against Borussia.PNG

Injuries: da Costa, Dragovic (won't join the team before after the national games), Bender, Chicharito, Kießling

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of Raffael scoring to be around 33 %, giving a bet value of 103.9

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

So close to the start of the Bundesliga season that I've almost started shaking of excitement Geek

BLstart.gif

I'm not going to post further bets for this week but will just do a short recap.

I've got 4 bets for the first round:

  1. Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48. This odds has slashed big time since I posted it and it's currently at 2.00 - yeah, sure it's all because of my little analysis Cool. This was really expected, and you'll see that 90 % of the bets I post on a favorite, they'll be online at least 4-5 days before the game. No longer any value in this bet.
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04, 27/08 15:30 CET - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75. As you might have noticed I'm pretty fond of the anytime goalscorer bets, and there're several reasons for this: 1. The odds tend to stay pretty much the same, so even though you read the post a few days later, there'll likely still be value, 2. Unibet are almost always the bookmaker with the highest odds on this bet type, 3. I've got a good record on this particular bet type. The odds on Schalke to win is decreasing slightly and this trend should continue in the next 24 hours. The odds on Huntelaar is still the same, and there's still value in this.
  3. Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9. Odds on Freiburg dropping, but again the AG bets are staying the same - still odds 4.9 on Niederlechner. Still value in this bet.
  4. Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 27/08 18:30 CET - AG: Raffael - odds 3.15. I feel like I'm repeating myself, but the odds on Borussia are dropping. The odds on Raffael has changed a little, as it's now 3.10. There's still value, but it's not much.

 

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

I didn't expect a lot from Bremen, but this can turn into a real embarrassing start for them. Wouldn't be surprised if the score after 90 minutes is 6-0 Cash

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

And there was the 6-0 Cash Smile

2016-08-26 22.10.03.jpg

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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desinere Rank 16
Rank 16
Watch out Jorma Vuoksenmaa,here comes Stubbe =)
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

What a horrendous display by Schalke in the first half. They weren't really on the pitch in the first 20 minutes, and it could easily have been 3-0 for Frankfurt SpeechlessDisappointed

Started looking better by the end of the 2nd half, so let's hope that trend continues and Huntelaar will get a few chances Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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desinere Rank 16
Rank 16
In that game there was no big exciting, unfortunately it was only semi-interesting to watch, I was definitely waiting little bit more.
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@kokkini wrote:
In that game there was no big exciting, unfortunately it was only semi-interesting to watch, I was definitely waiting little bit more.

As a Schalke fan I think the first 15 minutes were way too exciting! Smile
Defensively there have been some worrying signs against e.g. Bilbao, and today's match just confirmed that there's still a long way till the team is there. Baba and Bentaleb did very well, and Embolo will be there soon as well, it's just a matter of a few game. Next week against Bayern there's a guarantee for goals.

As for the two bets, both Huntelaar and Raffael had the number of chances and shots I'd expected would result in a goal, but they missed the last bit in the finishing. Both had 4 shots and both should have scored a goal. Sometimes the marginals are with you, sometimes they're against you - today the latter was the case Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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desinere Rank 16
Rank 16
Waiting next week, I am quite serious by saying that only results makes me happy enough, not action itself or close without (read goals->) results =)
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