Unibet Community

Ask questions, get help and enjoy Unibet
cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
jerry Rank 18
Rank 18

Few months ago i would pick Bayern to title with all my savings, but after the reinforcements Dortmund made and the Supercup it could be (should be) two horse race to the finish. I mean if Dortmund will be able to balance the squad between all competitions with the depth they have they could go for title. With Hummels Dortmund would be favorite IMO, without him is a question how the defence will cope. Bartra is ok but nowhere near Hummels and prone to youth mistakes. Mkhitaryan and Gundogan will be easily forgotten as Mkhi is simply overrated and Gundogan after the injury is not the same footballer (his career will be similar to Sahin trust me).

With the addition of some top defender (Toprak maybe), Borussia would be my pick for the title Smile, still without the signing of another defender Borussia can win the title for odds about 8.00. And there is odd of around 1.50 to Dortmund be first (with exception of Bayern) IMO this is pretty sure investment, the rest of the teams sold their best players and are nowhere near as consistent as Dortmund. 

the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@jerry wrote:

Few months ago i would pick Bayern to title with all my savings, but after the reinforcements Dortmund made and the Supercup it could be (should be) two horse race to the finish. I mean if Dortmund will be able to balance the squad between all competitions with the depth they have they could go for title. With Hummels Dortmund would be favorite IMO, without him is a question how the defence will cope. Bartra is ok but nowhere near Hummels and prone to youth mistakes. Mkhitaryan and Gundogan will be easily forgotten as Mkhi is simply overrated and Gundogan after the injury is not the same footballer (his career will be similar to Sahin trust me).

With the addition of some top defender (Toprak maybe), Borussia would be my pick for the title Smile, still without the signing of another defender Borussia can win the title for odds about 8.00. And there is odd of around 1.50 to Dortmund be first (with exception of Bayern) IMO this is pretty sure investment, the rest of the teams sold their best players and are nowhere near as consistent as Dortmund. 


I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions based on a super cup match, but I do think that:
1. Dortmund looked really good
2. There's certainly no value in Bayern to win the title
3. Odds 8 on Dortmund is very interesting (Unibet currently offer odds 7)

I haven't seen the 1.5 on Dortmund to finish 1st or 2nd, but it is certainly an interesting odds, even though I do expect a good season from both Leverkusen and Schalke. You can get 1.3 on Dortmund H2H with Leverkusen (1.27 on Unibet). I doubt it'll happen, but if Dortmund to be the highest scoring team increase to 2.00, I see okay value in this bet.

Now that we're talking Dortmund, Unibet currently got odds 9 on Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer in the Bundesliga, which is the highest on the market, and the average for the rest of the market is just around 6. This will be the last season bet I recommend in this thread - sorry there's no written analysis for this one, might add it later this week, if I can find some time for it. As a last comment, I can add that Dortmund are favorites to score the most goals this season (Dortmund 1.90, Bayern 2.15).

The three season bets for this year's Bundesliga:
1. Aubameyang to be the top goalscorer - odds 9.0 (value = 117). 3 units
2. To score the most goals in the Bundesliga for Schalke: Choupo-Moting - odds 5.5 (value = 115.5). 3 units
3. To finish best in the North: HSV - odds 5.5 (value = 104.5). 1 unit

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
0 Likes
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Aubameyang now slashed to 6.5 and you should not put any money on it. Odds on the two other bets remain unchanged, and the chance of winning is unchanged for the Choupo bet and slightly lower (insignificant) for the HSV bet. Will be interesting to see which two players Schalke sign this week - or if they even manage to sign two.

Below a bet for those of you who like a high odds. This is not a value bet, and it wont be included in my score for this thread - it's just for the entertainment, as the Bundesliga isn't starting before next Friday Smile
The bet is a 6 of 8, which basically means that you'll still win, even if two of the outcomes aren't correct (obviously not as much as if they're all correct). You're placing 28 sixfolds and the potential payout is 15562 with a stake of 1 per sixfold (so total stake is 2Cool.

Capture.PNG

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
0 Likes
Reply
psrquack Rank 24
Rank 24

Astoria Walldorf:smileylol: What a funny name.

0 Likes
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
No bets settled.

Bayern München vs Werder Bremen - Bayern AH -3 - odds 2.48

This is an Asian Handicap bet on Bayern München. If Bayern win with 4 or more, the bet is won, if Bayern win with 3, the bet is voided and if Bayern lose, draw or win with two or less, the bet is lost. 

The title favorites from the south against the relegation contenders from the north. The fans of "Die Grün-Weißen" surely look back at the 2003-2004 season with longing. Just 10 years ago, the team from Bremen was the main title contenders along with Bayern. Today they're merely considered a mediocre team by Bundesliga standards, and they're expected to finish in the bottom half of the table this season. 
Bayern is hated and loved for the dominance in recent years (among other things) and the bookmakers estimate their chance of winning this season to be almost 90 %!
This is David against Goliath, and I don't think the outcome will be close to that of the Books of Samuel. It's not a question of whether Bayern will win, it's a question of how much they'll win.

This is a good bet because

  • Bremen have had a bad pre-season and Sunday they lost 2-1 in the German Cup against Sportfreunde Lotte. The name sounds familiar? Probably not; they played Regionalliga last season and are playing in the 3rd best division this season. Defensively Bremen has looked weak, and it's honestly difficult to predict who'll be in the starting 11, as no one really has impressed.
  • Not only did Bremen lose the game against a 3rd division team, Max Kruse also got seriously injured. Kruse came from Wolfsburg this season and was supposed to form a goal scoring duo with Pizarro. Speaking of Pizarro; the Peruvian probably wont be ready for the Bayern game either.
  • In Bayern's 17 home games last season, 6 of them was won with a goal margin of 4 or more and 2 were won with a goal margin of 3. In the home game against Werder (March) they won 5-0 - they also met in the German Cup a month later, where Bayern won 2-0.
  • Last season Bayern managed an impressive 18.4 shots per game and 80 goals (2.35 per game, 3 per home game).
  • Bayern have had a decent pre-season and a good start to the season. First they won 2-0 against Dortmund in the Super Cup (the result does not reflect how good Dortmund actually played in this game - hurts a little to write those words) and Friday they won 0-5 against Carl Zeiss Jenna. Lewandowski scored the first three goals of the game. 

You might loose the bet because

  • Of Bremen's 9 lost away games last season, 5 of them were with a goal margin of 1, and just 3 were with a goal margin of 3 or more. On average, Bremen conceded 1.91 goals per match, 2.06 in away games.
  • Bayern are without Coman and Robben. On a more positive note both Alonso and Thiago will be ready for the game this Friday
  • Bayern without Boateng is a much weaker Bayern - in my opinion he's currently the best CD in the world.
  • Despite the good result against Dortmund in the Super Cup, Ancelotti's troops were not at all convincing.

Expected lineups and team news

Bayern
Bayern against Werder.PNGNotable injuries: Boateng, Costa, Robben, Coman, Badstuber

Werder Bremen

Werder against Bayern.PNG

  Notable injuries: Kruse, Pizarro, Bargfrede

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be around 42 %, giving a bet value of 104.2. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
Reply
cris1285 Rank 20
Rank 20

Good pick. But how you count that 42% chance? 

0 Likes
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@cris1285 wrote:

Good pick. But how you count that 42% chance? 


Good question Smile

It very much depends on the bet type. There's a big difference between estimating the chance for a special bet and e.g. 1X2 or an Asian Handicap. In this case I actually made a mistake when writing there's a 42 % chance of winning - I'd been writing multiple pieces of analysis for more than 2.5 hours straight, so my head was a bit heavy at the time. When it's an asian handicap with a chance of the bet being voided, you obviously have to include this in the bet value calculation. You simply take the percentage chance of a draw (e.g. 5 %) and add it as percentage points to the bet value (5). Happy to explain this in more detail, if you want to know more Smile

Let me take you through the process for this particular bet
I'll first check all the different markets on the match, to see if there's anything that could potentially have some value. As I'm only going to recommend odds from Unibet, it's much more difficult than normally. I'm obviously not going to pick a bet, where our odds is around the market average or below, so not only does the general market level have to be interesting, Unibet has to be among the bookmakers offering the highest odds on the outcome. I tend to look quite a lot at the odds on Pinnacle and compare them to Unibet.

I checked the odds for 1X2, Asian Handicaps, Over/Under, Both teams to score, Bayern over/under etc., and the only bets of interest were Bayern -2.5, -2.75 and -3 and Lewandowski to score. As I now identified these bets as interesting, I started looking at them in more detail. I quickly realized that Lewandowski to score didn't have any value, and moved on focus on the Asian Handicaps.
How did I determine there wasn't any value in Lewandowski to score? For Anytime Goalscorer bets, the expected number of goals from the team is of course critical information, but that alone gives you nothing. Personally I look at lot at recent form of the player; how many shots has he had in the past games, where did the shots go, how many goalscoring opportunities did he have etc. The opponents defence and how they'll match up to your man is of course also important. Knowledge is key, and sometimes you don't even need to do any detailed analysis, to identify a great bet. A good example is from the 2012-2013 season, when Lewis Holtby played at Schalke. In the previous season, he'd primarily played DM and by the start of the new season he was going to play AM, with just Huntelaar in front of him. His pre-season had been fantastic. The odds on some bookmakers didn't really reflect this, and there was very good value in him to score in the first few games of the season. He scored in 3 of the first 5 matches of the season, and the odds was between 7 and 5.

Well, back to the AH bet. As with the goalscorer bets, I like to use shots statistics for an initial estimation of the chance. I then make adjustments based on team news, last 2-3 games etc. etc. - basically anything that has an influence. I also like to look at related bets and use them as a reference, but that's usually earlier in the process, when I just browse the markets. If I'm looking at handicap bets, I'd e.g. check over/under lines, clean sheet odds etc. After adding and subtracting back and forth, I'll  end up with a percentage. If this is more than 101%, I'd usually place the bet. Depending on the bet, it might not happen on paper/Excel, but I'll simply just do the calculations in my head.

Again, knowledge really is key. Personally I spend a lot of time:
1. Browsing Twitter for expert opinions, updates from players and teams etc.
2. Reading German football news (Kicker, Bild, 11Freunde, DerWesten etc. etc.)
3. Watching matches (usually 2-5 every week) and occationally press conferences as well

I'll probably do a blog post soon, where I go more in detail with the numbers and actual method. The above is obviously very high-level.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
No bets settled.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 - AG: Huntelaar - odds 2.75

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Huntelaar. If Huntelaar scores, the bet is won. If Huntelaar isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

As always, the expectations are high in Gelsenkirchen. Heidel and Weinzierl have both gotten of to a decent start in their new jobs, and everyone is hoping for Champions League qualification after a couple of seasons with Europa League. A few weeks ago Klopp was quoted for saying "I know no Dortmund fan wants to hear this, but I think Schalke could be really successfull" - like adding fuel to the fire of high expectations. The expectations at Commerzbank-Arena are not quite as high, and the German Cup game last Sunday also indicates that it's going to be a tough season for the club from the fifth-largest German city. Last season relegation was avoided very last minute in the 2nd relegation play-off match against Nürnberg. Schalke has been fairly active on the transfer market this summer, and one or two more players are still to arrive, according to the German media. Most significant signings are Embolo (most expensive player in the clubs history, € 22.5 million), Naldo, Coke and Baba. Also worth noting that Avdijaj and Ayhan are back after having been on loan, and it should of course also be mentioned that Sané was sold for a record-breaking € 50 million. In Frankfurt it's been really, really quite with just two new signings and a few more players coming on loan.

This is a good bet because

  • Schalke have had a very decent pre-season with recent wins against Athletic Bilbao, Fiorentina and Bologna, and Schalke scored 3, 3 and 2 goals in the games respectively. They didn't exactly impress in the cup game against Villingen, but they cruised home a 1-4 victory.
  • Huntelaar in particular can be very happy about the past month. He scored in the weekend's cup game against Villingen, against Kiel, Athletic, Wanne Eickel, Luzern, Eintrach Rheine and Guangzhou R&F. In other words he's scored in 7 of 10 games. Some of the opponents quality, or rather lack thereof, of course has to be taken into consideration
  • The team from Gelsenkirchen seem to continue the trend from previous seasons; we don't care how many goals are scored against us, as long as we score more. I'll admit I haven't been able to watch that much of the pre-season games, but what I have seen hasn't been impressive defensively. Is this bet is just about Huntelaar scoring, many goals is obviously a good thing - preferably the goals should be in Hradecky's goal though.
  • In the cup game against Villingen, Schalke played with a 4-4-2 formation, which didn't work that well. With Meyer back from a very successful Olympic, the formation is likely to change back to the 4-2-3-1 that the team has fancied in recent years. Huntelaar will surely be chosen as the lone striker.
  • Schalkes style of play is expected to be slightly different under Weinzierl, and Huntelaar has been drawing some parallels to Ralf Rangnick. Rangnick was coach for Schalke for half the 2011/2012 season where Huntelaar scored 29 goals in the Bundesliga. Huntelaar should expect more balls in the penalty box, compared to the last couple of seasons.
  • Despite a recent bad record, Huntelaar is expected to shoot penalties.

You might loose the bet because

  • The 3 guys behind Huntelaar are likely going to be Meyer, Embolo and Choupo. I'm not sure how good Embolo will be at setting up Huntelaar, but it did look fairly promising against Villingen. This is more of an uncertainty - could turn out to be positive to have Embolo on the wing.
  • Schalke haven't signed a replacement for Sané yet. Embolo can play his position though.
  • Huntelaar hasn't had as many shots per game in the past two seasons, as he used to (2.6 last season)
  • Schalke are not very strong away from Veltins Arena and they failed to score in 29 % of the away games last season. Furthermore Frankfurt managed to keep a clean sheet in 29 % of their home games, which is very decent, considering where they ended up in the table.

Expected lineups and team news

Frankfurt

Frankfurt against Schalke.PNG

 Notable injuries: Stendera, Russ

Schalke
Schalke against Frankfurt.PNG

 Notable injuries: Coke, Uchida, Goretzka (expect him to be ready, but not sure he'll be fit for the starting 11)

Chance of winning, bet value and unit(s)
There's a great degree of uncertainty related to this bet - e.g. not so sure about the formation, which can in worst case move 1-2 %. I estimate the chance of winning to be around 37-39 %, giving a bet value of 101.8-107.3. Recommend 1 unit on this bet.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
Reply
psrquack Rank 24
Rank 24

 It's a spam, not a spoiler.

Spoiler
Championship manager, I miss you so much.

 

0 Likes
Reply
BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Result so far:
No bets settled.

Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg, 28/08 15:30 CET - AG: Niederlechner - odds 4.9

This is an Anytime Goalscorer bet on Niederlechner. If Niederlechner scores, the bet is won. If Niederlechner isn't in the starting lineup, the bet will be voided.

As I'm busy with other things, this will be a very short written analysis. Niederlechner is riding a wave of success at the moment. He had a great "Rückrunde" (2nd half of the season) in the 2nd best league last season, scoring 8 goals in 14 games. In the pre-season he has, without comparison, been Freiburg's most dangerous man when attacking. He's scored 15 of Freiburg's 42 goals (including the German Cup game), a staggering 36 %, and in many of the games he only played 45 minutes. In the last two games he's played, he's scored 4 of Freiburgs 7 goals. What speaks against this bet is the strength of the team and Hertha's performance at Olympiastadion. Hertha kept a clean sheet in 47 % of their home games, last season. On the other hand Freiburg's offensive was really strong last season, scoring 75 goals and only failing to score in two games - this was in the second best league. Depending on the formation, there's a good chance Niederlechner won't get 90 minutes on the pitch.

I estimate the chance of winning the bet to be 22 %, giving a bet value of 107.8. Recommend 1 unit on this bet. 

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
0 Likes
Reply