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startelver Rank 18
Rank 18

Do you think there is a good chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach away win this weekend ? I know the odds has decreased but it still looks like value to me. 

 

 

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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@startelver wrote:

Do you think there is a good chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach away win this weekend ? I know the odds has decreased but it still looks like value to me.


@startelver, my initial estimation was a 33 % chance for a Gladbach victory, which was a bit conservative, but now I think it's quite accurate. Schalke didn't play their best game yesterday, but the team spirit was different, they were fighting more and playing more like a team. 

The odds is currently increasing, and as we're always a bit slow updating the odds, we currently have one of the lowest odds on the market. I'd wait a little and see if the odds increase in the next 5 hours. It needs be to be at least 3.10, before it's interesting Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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gillvs77 Rank 17
Rank 17

is Raffael not a loss for M'gladbach?

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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@gillvs77 wrote:

is Raffael not a loss for M'gladbach?


It's a loss indeed - he's probably been the best Gladbach player this season. Hahn and Hazard is not a bad attack though, and that he's missing doesn't change a whole lot for me. Schalke's defense has looked horrible the entire season - including yesterday - and it doesn't exactly take a Messi or Ronaldo to score - even Bendtner would stand a chance Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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KongHenrik Rank 10
Rank 10

Bendtner is also better then Messi & Ronaldo, ofc he would score.

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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

So, haven't found further bets for the 6th round, but might post 1-2 later today or tomorrow. Below the four bets previously posted for this round.

Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 CashCash
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 Cash
VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 Cash
Schalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.20 CashCashCash

Mainz is now at 4.60 and Gladbach is back at 3.20. The other two bets are not that interesting, but HSV might increase closer to kickoff. 

 

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Not the most lucky betting weekend, but it's looking good for the season bets Choupo to be TGS for Schalke and Aubameyang to be TGS in the league Smile Mainz should've won today, and HSV could just as well had ended 3-4.

Status after the 6th Bundesliga round:

# of bets: 36
# of settled bets: 33
# of won bets: 13
Units in play: 35.5
Average odds: 3.9
Average bet value: 105.7
ROI 9.4
Units won: 2.68

A few early bets for the next round:

FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 CashCash
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC - 1X2: 2 - Odds 12 CashCashCash
VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 CashCash

EDIT: Added value emoticons.

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

Excel doc updated: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH 

One more early bet:

FC Köln vs Ingolstadt - AH: Home -1 - Odds 2.6 CashCash

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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Buy1get1free Rank 8
Rank 8

I can't open your updated excel doc

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BonusPater Rank 24
Rank 24

@Buy1get1free wrote:

I can't open your updated excel doc


https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead.

I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more Smile

Former community manager. Used to be known as "Stubbe-Unibet" | Bundesliga blog | How NOT to play poker blog
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