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Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner


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Two teams in great form. Neither are clear of the relegation spots and both can secure an Europa League spot. 

Odds on Werder has been increasing in the last 24 hours. I see decent value in a Werder victory (one of those bets where if I lose, I'll be pretty happy about it :))

Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 1 - Odds 3.25 :cash:

There's a chance that the odds will increase further, but I don't think it's likely.

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Very comfortable win for Werder yesterday. I've got 10 units on Schalke to win EL (not here on the blog. #whatismoneymanagement), so I really hope we'll see a different team next week against Ajax.

Well, a bet for the weekend:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 :cash:

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Odds down to 5.25. Really sad circumstances and difficult to say what it'll mean for the bet. Could have a positive as well as negative effect.
Personally I hope the match will be played tomorrow. Fortunately no one got badly injured. Let's hope Bartra will be ready again soon.

For now the match is planned for tomorrow 18:45, but it's not unlikely it'll be postponed further imo.

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@Stubbe-Unibet wrote:

 Fortunately no one got badly injured. Let's hope Bartra will be ready again soon.

 


Bartra in surgery for a broken bone in his hand and shrapnel in his arm.

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
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As if the game wasn't already exciting enough, I was watching it on a horrible wifi where the connection dropped every 5 min. Certainly made it more interesting :D 

Almost 9 unit profit on the game. Back in the game now, just need the good run to continue in the weekend :)

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Another site has odds 2.38 on both teams not to score in the game between Leverkusen and Bayern = really great value.

 

124 bets settled, units in play 114.75, +17.2 units, ROI 16.8.

 

Had a quick look at the odds for the weekend, and didn't find anything really interesting. Off to the beach now. Will have another look tomorrow :)

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Didn't have any bets for this weekend because of the company conference. Let's try and see if we can continue the good run with these two bets for next week:

Bayer Leverkusen vs Schalke 04 - Under 2.5 goals - Odds 2.10

Werder Bremen vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 1 - Odds 2.20

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Excel doc updated: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx

 

Under 2.5 goals in Leverkusen is down a bit and currently at 2.05, Werder to win is down a lot and at 1.98, and Wolfsburg to win is down as well (7.50). Not bad.

Might post another bet later, depending on the odds movement in the Dortmund and the Leipzig game :)

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The crazy coupon of the week (not going to be included in my results, ofc) :D
Bayer Leverkusen vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 1
Werder Bremen vs Hertha Berlin - 1X2: 1
RB Leipzig vs FC Ingolstadt - 1X2: 2
Wolfsburg vs Bayern München - 1X2: 2
Hoffenheim vs Eintract Frankfurt - 1X2: 1

Stake € 5, to return € 2087.76 :cash: :cash: :cash:

It was placed earlier this week, so the odds is a little different today. When I placed it there was actually value in quite a few of the bets. You can also go for the "safe" one and make a 4/5 ;)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Been a bit dead on the blog lately as I haven't followed the Bundesliga that closely - mostly just been watching Schalkes games.

Well, with just two rounds left, I thought I better post a couple of picks for the weekend.

Schalke 04 vs HSV - Huntelaar to score the first goal - Odds 5.60

HSV are in danger of relegating again this season - becoming a habit for the club from Hamburg - and it's Schalkes last game at home this season + the can qualify for Europa League. There's a lot at stake. An area will end this month; the era of Huntelaar. It's very, very unlikely he'll play the full match, but I think there's a good chance he'll start, and I expect he'll get a fair bit of chances in this one. HSV have been terrible in the defence this season, and especially when playing away it's been bad. They've conceded an average of 2.2 goals away, and in the last 3 games they conceded a total of 9 goals. Schalke have been so f**** bad away this season, but home they've put in a lot of solid performances, scoring an average of 1.75 goals per game. 
The Hunter has had his worst season at Schalke, and looking at his personal stats, there's not a lot speaking for this bet (if anything). He's only had 22 shots on goal in 669 minutes, a shot every 30 minutes. Well, this game is unlike any other he's played this season, and I do think he's looked quite good the last couple of times he got the chance (he scored against Leipzig 3 weeks ago). The game will be a big celebration of his time at the club, and I'm sure the teammates will do their best to send him off in style.
There's not a lot of value in this one, and I might be romanticising a bit, but I do think it's worth a unit.

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