BonusPater Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 And another two early bets for next weekend:Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 :cash::cash:VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 :cash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 Status after the 5th Bundesliga round:# of bets: 31# of settled bets: 28# of won bets: 12Units in play: 30.5Average odds: 3.9Average bet value: 105.8ROI 22.1Units won: 5.2All bets can be seen here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/03gzxjg595t8ybd/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx?dl=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 Odds on Gladbach and HSV slashed just hours after posting them. Gladbach is now at 2.85 (no value), HSV at 4.10 (not worth a bet either) and Mainz are at 4.40, which is still the highest on the market and worth a few pennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 One more, and possibly the last, bet on the 6th round: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 :cash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Even though it's Europa League, I'll bet one unit on this bet, as I'm pretty confident about my estimation - know a fair bit about the Austrian Bundesliga as well.Schalke 04 vs RB Salzburg - AH Schalke -1 - Odds 2.48EDIT: Excel doc updated: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 And a few words about why I think there's value in this bet (wanted to post the bet asap, as Unibet currently has the highest odds and it has started to slash): Yes, Schalke ♥️❤️♥️ ♥️❤️♥️ at the moment, and they've had the worst ever start to a Bundesliga season. The opening odds was 2.07, and it was around 2.17 before the public money made this bet interesting. Let's be honest; the majority don't do much research before placing a bet, and to many an odds close to 5 will be very interesting, when the other team has lost 5 league games in a row. There's a huge difference between the quality of these two teams, and even though Schalke haven't impressed, they haven't been as bad as the Bundesliga table would suggest. They played a very decent game in Nice - should have won with at least two goals - and Salzburg disappointed at home against Krasnodar. I'm fairly certain we'll see some tactical changes from Weinzierl, which I expect to have a positive effect - can of course have the opposite effect as well, but hey, how much worse can it get ;)EDIT: Just as I finished writing this, the odds decreased a little. It's now 2.43, which still has a bit of value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I think your team is in a must-win-how-doesn't-matter period, so after the supposed first goal they will trying to pass the bus driver exam. So I expect short, safety first passes, some crampedness and physical play. I can't support your bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 @psrquack wrote:I think your team is in a must-win-how-doesn't-matter period, so after the supposed first goal they will trying to pass the bus driver exam. So I expect short, safety first passes, some crampedness and physical play. I can't support your bet.I don't remember the last time I saw Schalke park the buss with success :DIf they're leading 1-0 with 15-20 minutes left, they might try, but else I don't really see it happening tbh - didn't do it against Nice. It's not really the Schalke way to play, and they don't have the defensive stability to do it.As expected, there're quite a lot of changes in the starting 11 for Schalke. Defensively it looks quite strong, but the team might be struggling a bit in the other end of the pitch, which obviously doesn't speak for this bet.FährmannHöwedes - Naldo - Nastasic - KolasinacGeis - BentalebSchöpf - Meyer - GoretzkaEmboloCtiCqayWEAIZI0b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 @Stubbe-Unibet wrote: As expected, there're quite a lot of changes in the starting 11 for Schalke. Defensively it looks quite strong, but the team might be struggling a bit in the other end of the pitch, which obviously doesn't speak for this bet. This is what I'm saying about. The need of win. Or at least the need of don't lose. It's always heavy playing a difference tactic as the conventional. Doon't forget, only Bundesliga counts (and the game against BVB) the EL is the plus but not the first target of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Say hi to the bus!😃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Nothing changed since the goal ;) they'll keep playing like this till there's 15-20 min left, and maybe the entire match - when you're superior to your opponent, playing way better and they don't create any chances, it doesn't make sense to park the bus :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 To be honest, it was a terrible and boring first half. RB played like a home team and Schalke tried the counter attack play(oh it's so heavy typing it in english, because I watch the game with german commentators and trying everything to write in german). So I think Schalke should put RB more under pressure and close the opportunity of RB's wing attacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'll just let the score speak for itself ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psrquack Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Well, great pick at all even the away team scored twice though.😛 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Status before the 6th Bundesliga round:# of bets: 31# of settled bets: 29# of won bets: 13Units in play: 31.5Average odds: 3.9Average bet value: 105.7ROI 27.3Units won: 6.68All bets can be seen here: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
startelver Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Do you think there is a good chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach away win this weekend ? I know the odds has decreased but it still looks like value to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 @startelver wrote:Do you think there is a good chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach away win this weekend ? I know the odds has decreased but it still looks like value to me.@startelver, my initial estimation was a 33 % chance for a Gladbach victory, which was a bit conservative, but now I think it's quite accurate. Schalke didn't play their best game yesterday, but the team spirit was different, they were fighting more and playing more like a team. The odds is currently increasing, and as we're always a bit slow updating the odds, we currently have one of the lowest odds on the market. I'd wait a little and see if the odds increase in the next 5 hours. It needs be to be at least 3.10, before it's interesting :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillvs77 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 is Raffael not a loss for M'gladbach? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 @gillvs77 wrote:is Raffael not a loss for M'gladbach?It's a loss indeed - he's probably been the best Gladbach player this season. Hahn and Hazard is not a bad attack though, and that he's missing doesn't change a whole lot for me. Schalke's defense has looked horrible the entire season - including yesterday - and it doesn't exactly take a Messi or Ronaldo to score - even Bendtner would stand a chance :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KongHenrik Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Bendtner is also better then Messi & Ronaldo, ofc he would score. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 So, haven't found further bets for the 6th round, but might post 1-2 later today or tomorrow. Below the four bets previously posted for this round.Hertha BSC vs HSV - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngBayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund - AH Dortmund -1 - Odds 3.1 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngVfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 4.50 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngSchalke 04 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.20 /html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.png/html/images/emoticons/Asset46.pngMainz is now at 4.60 and Gladbach is back at 3.20. The other two bets are not that interesting, but HSV might increase closer to kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Not the most lucky betting weekend, but it's looking good for the season bets Choupo to be TGS for Schalke and Aubameyang to be TGS in the league :) Mainz should've won today, and HSV could just as well had ended 3-4.Status after the 6th Bundesliga round:# of bets: 36# of settled bets: 33# of won bets: 13Units in play: 35.5Average odds: 3.9Average bet value: 105.7ROI 9.4Units won: 2.68A few early bets for the next round:FC Augsburg vs Schalke 04 - 1X2: 2 - Odds 2.65 :cash::cash:Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC - 1X2: 2 - Odds 12 :cash::cash::cash:VfL Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig - 1X2: 2 - Odds 3.50 :cash::cash:EDIT: Added value emoticons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Excel doc updated: https://db.tt/6j8JMSGH One more early bet:FC Köln vs Ingolstadt - AH: Home -1 - Odds 2.6 :Cash::Cash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buy1get1free Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 I can't open your updated excel doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonusPater Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 @Buy1get1free wrote:I can't open your updated excel dochttps://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/14641388/Bundesliga_Corner_Stubbe.xlsx try this link instead.I have been a little busy lately, so haven't had time to follow the odds movements. I'll have a look today or tomorrow and maybe post a pick or two more :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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