Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

Schalke (and Hoffenheim) will get problems due to playing UCL and losing important players without getting anything in return (Goretzka/Meyer).

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Sure, it won't make things easier, but I don't really think it'll be a problem for Schalke. 

Goalkeeper: obviously not a problem for Ralfi to play all games.

Defense: with the signing of Sané, Schalke have got two of the tree best defenders in the Bundesliga, according to kicker ratings and stats from the past season. Naldo was one of just four players to play every single minute in the Bundesliga, so even though he's not young anymore, +35 games in a season shouldn't be a problem. Nastasic is the third starter, and then there's Kehrer and Stambouli for whenever someone needs a bit of rest. Defensively Schalke haven't been this strong since we had another amazing Brazilian many years ago, and I don't see any issues here.

Wingbacks: with Caliguri, Scöpf and Oczipka only injuries can cause issues, and even then there's still Baba and a player like Kehrer can also play this position. No issues here either.

Central midfield: the most problematic one, but further players will be signed. Meyer honestly isn't that big of a loss, and Goretzka didn't make a big difference either this season - he's been amazing before, but had a lot of bad games this year. I expect great things from McKennie,  and Bentaleb, Serdar and Sané can also play the defensive of the two positions. For the attacking midfielder there's Harit, Serdar and surely another new signing.

Wings/attack: hope for another signing, but Burgstaller, Uth, Kono (who really started to play well), Embolo and Harit is a decent selection - count on Embolo being out half the season though.

With another two signings, I see the team as considerably stronger than last season. 

[WuDu]

@testuser1

3 things:

I think the players you mentioned from Schalke are solid Bundesliga players, but nothing more. You could do the same list with Red Bull Leipzig or Gladbach, for instance. You mentioned the kicker-grades for Naldo and Salif Sane, however you declined the importance of Meyer who finished the season as the best Schalke midfielder according to that ranking.

Look at Hoffenheim's performance in the Bundesliga when they were still playing Europa League and once they were eliminated. When Schalke has to play twice a week, Tedesco won't have enough practice time to prepare his squad as well as he did last year.

Kicker-grades are funny to look at but to be taken with a big grain of salt. Personally, I think the writers from kicker like to get high on their own supply a little too much for my taste. According to them, Bürki and Götze have been the best BVB players in 17/18. :laugh: According to them, Robert Lewandowski (2.73) and Serge Gnabry (2.75) almost had the same level of performance last year. :laugh:

 

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

@testuser1

Kicker-grades are funny to look at but to be taken with a big grain of salt. Personally, I think the writers from kicker like to get high on their own supply a little too much for my taste. According to them, Bürki and Götze have been the best BVB players in 17/18. :laugh: According to them, Robert Lewandowski (2.73) and Serge Gnabry (2.75) almost had the same level of performance last year. :laugh:

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I certainly agree with that! Some players they're in love with, and others they hate - at least it seems like that. For Sane and Naldo it's not only about the Kicker rating though. Naldo scored the most goals of all defenders, and both won a crazy % of their duels - if I remember correctly they were the two best Bundesliga players by this metric.

I've been going ❤️♥️❤️ insane with the Fährmann ratings this season, as that's what EA are using for their Fifa ratings, and he got a downgrade - he was already rated too low, and then they downgrade him. He's had the most clean sheets of all keepers in the league, but still he's rated as one of the worst keepers. In the previous seasons he had a lot more to do, because the defense sucked, so he'd get more attention and better ratings. This season we've been very strong defensively, so he hasn't had as much to do. In previous season, a match without much to do and 0 goals conceded would give him a 2-2.5 rating. In this season he's been getting 3-3.5 ratings for the same performances! Sure, for the first time in ages, he did have three bad games in the spring, but if you look at the full season he's been solid. #FOCKEA

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@WuDu wrote:

@testuser1

3 things:

I think the players you mentioned from Schalke are solid Bundesliga players, but nothing more. You could do the same list with Red Bull Leipzig or Gladbach, for instance. You mentioned the kicker-grades for Naldo and Salif Sane, however you declined the importance of Meyer who finished the season as the best Schalke midfielder according to that ranking.

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Yes, you're totally right that, on paper, Schalke doesn't have a fantastic team, and that's also why it was such a big surprise to many that they managed to finish second. However, Fährmann, Naldo, Sane and Caliguri (most underestimated player in the team) are not just average Bundesliga players (could include more players here as well), and a player like Harit has imense potential - I consider him a top 10 talent (or even top 5 aged 20 or younger) in the Bundesliga. 

You can do well without individuals, if the team is working together, and I don't see why it would suddenly stop functioning for Schalke.

All that being said, I'm a bit afraid of next season, but I'll probably still bet on them to win both the Bundesliga and Champions League 🤣

[WuDu]

I think you said it best, Schalke is not the most talented team in the league and they're losing two important players. Thus game-planning and preparation are so important for your squad. However with UCL duties coming up, this will be extremely difficult. To repeat myself, just look at Hoffenheim last year.

In addition to that, Schalke scored 63 points, that's less points than any other 2nd place team scored for over 10 years (didn't bother to check the stats past 06/07). Apart from Bayern, the Bundesliga has been a disaster performance wise and S04 managed to use that to their advantage. I'm not knocking Schalke's performance because of that, I'm just saying that teams like the BVB, Red Bull, Leverkusen and Gladbach have much more room to improve next year.

Yes, Fährmann at #16 in the goal-keeper ranking is a bad joke...

[BonusPater]

Still more than a month till the Bundesliga starts :dissatisfied: :dissatisfied:

There's not a lot of offers on the site yet, but one has caught my attention

Unibet got just 2.50 on Schalke to finish in top 4, and the highest I've been able to find is 2.80. As discussed above, the second place was a bit of a miracle last season, and it will be much more difficult this season, as there's also Champions League. However, I see the team as significantly stronger this season, and 16 % chance of a top 3 finish is a joke. Below my preferred lineup and the alternatives for each position.

Fährmann

Nastasic (Kehrer) - Naldo (Stambouli) - Sané (Insua).

Caligiuri (Schöpf)                  -                     Oczipka (Baba)

Bentaleb (Mascarell, McKennie, Geis, Serdar)

Harit (Skrzybski)                           -              Embolo (Konoplyanka) 

Uth (Embolo) - Burgstaller (Di Santo)

Likely going to be a bit more defensive with two proper central midfielders, but the above is just to show how well Schalke are covered on all positions, and I don't expect the many games to make that big of a difference.

[TTABKATA]

This odd deserve 10 euro but will take to long :speechless:

[BonusPater]

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@TTABKATA wrote:

This odd deserve 10 euro but will take to long :speechless:

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Yeah, but on the other hand it'll make the entire season more entertaining. It's like betting on Schalke every game ;)

Just want to add that Schalke is currently the team in the Bundesliga with the second largest deficit on the transfer balance this season, and that's despite getting a player like Sané (second best defender last season, Naldo the best, if looking at the stats) for just € 7mil, when his market value is estimated to be +20mil and Uth on a free transfer (market value just shy of € 20mil)

Goretzka is a loss, obviously, but he didn't make a difference is the last 6 months, Meyer is only a loss financially, Coke was out on loan last season, and Pjaca never managed to make a difference. So, as mentioned in my previous post: Schalke look like a significantly stronger team this season.

[WuDu]

@testuser1

You just did not quote transfermarkt.de market values, did you? :laugh: What's next? FIFA 19 attributes? I guess you're one of the guys still being hyped about Avdijaj...

Not impressed at all by Schalke's performance on the transfer market. I doubt you'll be playing UCL in 19/20.

[BonusPater]

I sure did :) don't know of a better site with estimated market values? :) Avdijaj was valued at € 3mil when he was at his highest, so I'm not sure I see the issue? If you're referring to his release clause, I don't see how that's relevant, as it has nothing to do with Transfermarkt :)

 

Schalke haven't been this active on the transfer market since the good old Magath days. Honestly not sure what you're expecting - Schalke aren't Bayern or Wolfsburg (thank god for that). I'm extremely happy with the signings, and I'm more optimistic about the upcoming season than I've been for many years :)

[WuDu]

@testuser1

Is there even a pre-season where you're not hyped about S04? 😃

Transfermarkt.de numbers are like political poll numbers, funny to look at, but if you're taking them seriously, you'll be in for some huge surprises.

I just find it funny, that you're stressing the tm-value of Sane and Uth (40 M together) and compare it to the actual transfer fees (7 M) and determine that your team is now 33 M "stronger". However on the other hand, you'll ignore the fact that you lost 58 M in tm-value (Goretzka and Meyer) and received zilch in return (again...).

[BonusPater]

@WuDu, I don't - or at least didn't mean to - make that comparison. I highlighted the TM values to show how active Schalke have been. I did say Goretzka is a loss, but I'd take the newcomers instead of him any day. As I already mentioned, Meyer is only a financial loss.

[WuDu]

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@testuser1 wrote:

Just want to add that Schalke is currently the team in the Bundesliga with the second largest deficit on the transfer balance this season.

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However the transfer balance is only at -30 M, because you're unable to generate any income from your departing players. So the idea that Schalke is getting a stronger team (30 M investment surplus so far) is false if your best players leave for nothing. And yes, this includes Max Meyer (#3 Schalker according to kicker grades last year), otherwise Heidel wouldn't have tried to extend him for 5 M per year.

Just look at the BvB, how it's done! So far, Diallo, Delaney and Wolf in, however we also made money by selling Sokratis, Yarmolenko and Castro. Schürrle will be next.

[Livertool]

That Goretska deal is as bad as they come. Why didn´t they cash out him in january? Now biggest team in Germany get him for free 😏

[losmentos]

😛

[WuDu]

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@Livertool wrote:

That Goretska deal is as bad as they come. Why didn´t they cash out him in january? Now biggest team in Germany get him for free 😏

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It takes two to tango! I'm pretty sure, Goretzka to Bayern was a done deal way before January, similar to how they stole Lewandowski from us.

[Livertool]

Yup, just hate to see that clubs that have the most money get players like that for free. And even transfer to club in same league too, wouldn´t be so bad if he would have moved to western part of UK :laugh:

Clubs just have to be aware of those things and cash players out while chance. Then they can afford to buy goalkeepers with world record fee 😛

I haven´t paid too much attention what has happened with transfers in Germany. Is it done deal again for BM or does other team(s) have realistic chance for title too? Besides Schalke and Dortmund ofc :laugh:

[WuDu]

@Livertool

I wouldn't call it a done deal, but Bayern is the heavy favorite again. But they're not THAT strong, it's just that the Bundesliga sucks big league. Last year, Schalke finished 2nd, however no other team finished second with less points than they did for at least over a decade. The BvB's season was a complete trainwreck, yet we qualified for the UCL. Hoffenheim lost 3 players to Bayern, sucked in the Europa League, yet they also reached the UCL.

The only team having a realistic chance of competing with Bayern is the BVB, however we have a lot of young players, a new (albeit great) coach and haven't bought our main striker yet, so yeah, chances are rather small. Other teams like Schlacke, Red Bull or Leverkusen never even won a Bundesliga title in their history. There's always a surprise team making moves for a short while like Hoffenheim and Frankfurt last year, Köln and Freiburg the year before and maybe Gladbach this year, but that won't be enough for the title.

[Livertool]

@WuDu

City beaten today so good start, bad lineups but win is win :)

That Sancho could be golden in the future, better sign him loooong deal

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

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@testuser1 wrote:

Just want to add that Schalke is currently the team in the Bundesliga with the second largest deficit on the transfer balance this season.

However the transfer balance is only at -30 M, because you're unable to generate any income from your departing players. So the idea that Schalke is getting a stronger team (30 M investment surplus so far) is false if your best players leave for nothing. And yes, this includes Max Meyer (#3 Schalker according to kicker grades last year), otherwise Heidel wouldn't have tried to extend him for 5 M per year.

Just look at the BvB, how it's done! So far, Diallo, Delaney and Wolf in, however we also made money by selling Sokratis, Yarmolenko and Castro. Schürrle will be next.

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I watched every single Schalke game last season, so I do feel I'm qualified to give me view on the importance of the players - even more than the stupid Kicker ratings :) I've never said I'm impressed with the way Schalke fail to get paid for their players :)

Schalke is significantly stronger than last season. Period :)

Schalke's strongest period was at the second half of the season, when Goretzka wasn't himself and Meyer went AWOL. McKennie and Bentaleb did really well when playing next to Goretzka. Again, Goretzka is an amazing player, and he can become one of the best in the world on his position, but last season he did not make a difference - he wasn't himself after the move to Bayern was official. Bentaleb, Mascarell/McKennie (and Serdar and Geis) are capable of replacing Meyer and Goretzka, especially considering how the two played last season. Add to that the signing of Sané (please don't compare him to :Heart::Hearts::Heart: Santana, when the performance and stats of the two are like night and day :)), Uth and Skrzybski.

Kehrer and Di Santo were the weakest links last season, and I think Sané and Uth will be starting instead of the two. Especially Uth replacing Di Santo is a huge improvement - Di Santo has the right attitude and fighter spirit, but apart from that, he honestly doesn't have a lot going for him :D

[chubby1945]

Go for it Mr. Bonus Pater I am looking forward to the info . I'm a Fellow Bundesliga fan.

[WuDu]

Step by step the BvB is getting massively rebuilt during this offseason! Now we're going after Witsel (don't know if I should laugh or cry) and Pulisic/Weigl might be getting shipped out. That leaves a lot of money for a striker...

[BonusPater]

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@testuser1 wrote:

Still more than a month till the Bundesliga starts :dissatisfied: :dissatisfied:

There's not a lot of offers on the site yet, but one has caught my attention

Unibet got just 2.50 on Schalke to finish in top 4, and the highest I've been able to find is 2.80. As discussed above, the second place was a bit of a miracle last season, and it will be much more difficult this season, as there's also Champions League. However, I see the team as significantly stronger this season, and 16 % chance of a top 3 finish is a joke. Below my preferred lineup and the alternatives for each position.

Fährmann

Nastasic (Kehrer) - Naldo (Stambouli) - Sané (Insua).

Caligiuri (Schöpf)                  -                     Oczipka (Baba)

Bentaleb (Mascarell, McKennie, Geis, Serdar)

Harit (Skrzybski)                           -              Embolo (Konoplyanka) 

Uth (Embolo) - Burgstaller (Di Santo)

Likely going to be a bit more defensive with two proper central midfielders, but the above is just to show how well Schalke are covered on all positions, and I don't expect the many games to make that big of a difference.

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Odds down to 5.00 and no longer that interesting. 

[BonusPater]

@WuDu, feeling confident about the new season after the amazing display yesterday? Not tempted by odds 3.5 on Schalke H2H against the yellow pigs?

Found a great odds on Uth to be the top goalscorer for Schalke. I've got Guido as a favorite, as he's currently the first choice when playing with just 1 actual striker, but I honestly think it's a pretty close race. The fact that Di Santo gives odds 4 really says it all - the trader was drunk when doing these odds :Rofl: Burgstaller got 11 goals last season, and Uth an impressive 14, but it doesn't really say that much, as Uth was at Hoffenheim. If Tedesco continues with the sort of 3-4-2-1, it's obviously going to be difficult, if Uth always plays behind Burgi, but I don't think that's going to be the case. Burgi loves going out wide, and there'll certainly be matches, where it's more of a 3-4-1-2 or 3-3-2-2 formation.

[WuDu]

@testuser1

Schweinfurt, Drochtersen and Pforzheim held their own as well. All playing in leagues below Fürth. So what does that say about S04, Bayern or Leverkusen? So great selective reporting on your part, you should apply to CNN! 😃

As you know: "The cup has its own rules!" 🤣 Let's talk again after we played Red Bull this Sunday.

I'm actually looking forward to this year, Witsel is a beast and Delaney seems like a good guy to have on your team! We need a striker though, as I have not seen that much offensive firepower in the pre-season. And I really, really hope Favre is not planning on Schmelzer to start as our left back on a regular basis!

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

@testuser1

Schweinfurt, Drochtersen and Pforzheim held their own as well. All playing in leagues below Fürth. So what does that say about S04, Bayern or Leverkusen? So great selective reporting on your part, you should apply to CNN! 😃

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Perhaps if you oversimplify things - like a certain president - and only look at the result :) Didn't watch the Bayern or Leverkusen games, but watched all 90 minutes of Schalkes game, and despite the result (0-2), it was a really comfortable win, as it should be. Defense was rock solid and Schalke never risked much - might not get you big wins nor the most attractive offensive play, but in our case it's the safest way to a win, just like last season. Dortmund on the other hand were on their ass and could just as well have been knocked out with 5 minutes left. 

When Reus gets injured again - or will this be the first time since the 10/11 season that he doesn't miss multiple games due to injury? - you're going to struggle real hard, especially if you don't sign a proper striker. Di Santo should be cheap ;)