Stubbe's Bundesliga Corner

[BonusPater]

haha, we'll see. One of us will be surprised this season, and I'm sure it's you ;)

I actually think Schalke have found a very good fit in Tedesco. Thought the same about Weinzierl and you never really know, when it comes to Schalke. Odds 11 on Tedesco to be the next Bundesliga coach out of the door.

Well, quick update on the only bet posted for next season (more will come soon). After being down to 4 for a short while, the odds is back at 6. Unibet is the only bookmaker with odds higher of 4, of the ones I use:
188 got odds 3
Bet365 and Betsafe/Betsson got odds 3.5
Tipico odds 4

None of the major UK operators have odds on the top goalscorer yet, but I don't expect they'll make a difference, as they will probably offer odds 3.5-4.

I've had a look at the league winner odds, and I think there's a bit of value in odds 1.25 on Bayern to win. Unfortunately this odds is found at another bookmaker. The average odds on this outcome is 1.15, which is also what Unibet are currently offering.

Unibet have the, by far, best offering on season bets on the Bundesliga, and I've found a few that are interesting:

Hannover to finish better than Stuttgart - odds 3.5

Lewandowski to score under 28.5 goals in the Bundesliga - Odds 1.75

James Rodriguez to score over or under 9.5 goals? - Odds 1.85 on both outcomes. Don't know about this one, so interested to hear your thoughts

Just going to put this one out there. Haven't looked into it in detail.

[BonusPater]

I am of course going to put some money on Schalke to finish in top 4 (odds 3.25), but this is without having considered if there's value - I usually bet on them to win the trophy, but this year it's time to be a little more realistic :)

[WuDu]

You always find interesting odds and bets! Too bad I have to save my money for the federal election in September. I don't think James will score 10+ goals, no way in hell! Not with Lewandowski, Müller, Robben and Ribery around. He's not shooting penalties and has to get used to the Bundesliga after warming the bench in Madrid.

[BonusPater]

Was thinking the same about James. I will have a look at his stats today (shots on goal per 90 minutes etc.), and post on here, if I place a bet. Don't watch any Spanish football at all (El Classico being an exception), so my knowledge about him is limited. First thought when I had a quick look yesterday was that he always seems to score against the real ❤️♥️❤️ty teams - I believe the worst teams in the Bundesliga are better than those in Spain.

[BonusPater]

Will put one unit on each of these three bets:

Dembele to have most assists (of the players on the previously posted picture) - odds 5.5

Lewandowski to score under 28.5 goals - Odds 1.75

Rodriguez to score under 9.5 goals - Odds 1.85

 

Auba to be TGS is down to 5, so not that tempting anymore.

[WuDu]

"Most assists" is stupid to bet on, simply because of the high fluctuation at the top from year to year. Of course, Dembele is a nice pick, but just because you're a great player, doesn't mean that you'll about to assist on 15-20 goals. With a new coach and maybe Götze and Schürrle playing a bigger role this year, you never know who ends up giving the final pass.

The last 2 assist leaders were Mkhitaryan and De Bruyne, both went to Manchester after their great seasons. Forsberg is still around...

[BonusPater]

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@WuDu wrote:

"Most assists" is stupid to bet on, simply because of the high fluctuation at the top from year to year. Of course, Dembele is a nice pick, but just because you're a great player, doesn't mean that you'll about to assist on 15-20 goals. With a new coach and maybe Götze and Schürrle playing a bigger role this year, you never know who ends up giving the final pass.

The last 2 assist leaders were Mkhitaryan and De Bruyne, both went to Manchester after their great seasons. Forsberg is still around...

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I don't agree, surprise :)

There certainly are high fluctuations, but that's also reflected in the odds for this outcome, I believe. The fluctuations are greater than for goals, but not as much as you make it sound like. It's difficult to say anything based on Dembeles stats, but if you look at a player like Müller - just one example of a player who's played at the same club for quite a few years and make a decent amount of assists - he's been very consistent. The same goes for Ribery and pretty much all other players I've checked. If you only focus on the one player with the most assists, it'll seem like it's pretty random, but that's not really the case.

I'm looking at placing a bet on Dortmund to win against Bayern in the weekend, but the odds has decreased at Unibet and is currently at 3.5 (was 4 about a week ago). I do think it'll increase slightly on Friday or Saturday, so might post the pick then.

[BonusPater]

Didn't exactly go as expected with the odds on Dortmund. The odds has decreased so much that I actually think there's a bit of value in Bayern now. Will wait a bit, before placing any bets.

Schalke are also playing today, against Crystal Palace. Unibet have got very low odds on this match, but there's a bit of value in 2.70 on Schalke at Betxxx :)

Quick update on season bets:

Auba TGS. Was 8, now 5.

Dembele most assists. Still at 5.5.

Rodriguez under 9.5. Was 1.85, now 1.5.

Lewandowski under 28.5. Still 1.75

[Angellike]

Re the J. Rodriguez bet, my feeling is 'keep away'. I think it's very hard to find reasons making it a value bet either way.

He is probably not going to feature in the staring 11 (unless he is great when given the chance, but that risk/chance is the same for everyone), not going to be taking free-kicks or penalites. On the other hand Bayern are so vastly superior everyone might get O9.5 ;) Unless one can find a better reason for either case I would try and invest my money elsewere. 

Checked the 16/17 stats --> any player over 1350 mins (15 + 90) in an attacking(ish) position:

Alcantara 6
Ribery 5 (in 1241 mins)
Martinez 1
Robben 13
Costa 4
Alonso 3
Vidal 9
Kimmich 6
Lew 30
Muller 5
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Based on those numbers I would lean toward u9.5. I'd prefer u8.5 or even 7.5 at 2.50 and 3.50 respectivally (very quick calculation).

[WuDu]

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@Angellike wrote:

Re the J. Rodriguez bet, my feeling is 'keep away'.

Bayern are so vastly superior everyone might get O9.5

 I would lean toward u9.5. I'd prefer u8.5 or even 7.5 at 2.50 and 3.50 respectivally (very quick calculation).

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So what is it now, buddy? Over, under or keep away?

Odds moved to 1,5 decades ago for the under because James is out with a muscle injury and his return is TBD, I doubt we'll see him play in August and September kicks off with the South American WC qualifiers. @testuser1 definitely with a value bet here.

[Angellike]

@WuDu In hindsight, potentially hard to understand my post...

If I had to bet I'd go with the under. But I won't bet, unless someone provides some evidence that I am unaware of.

- Not being a starting player,

- Munchen not having that many 10+ goalscorers,

- He's a bit of an unknown as he hasn't had regular playing time since the World Cup basically,

---> Probably u9.5. But I would need better odds to consider the 9.5 line (somewere between 2.2-2.35)

But since you mention an injury and S.A. WC qualifiers perhaps that's the information needed. Have you placed a bet?

[WuDu]

@Angellike

No, my point is in your statement you contradicted yourself multiple times. Analyzing the bet at 1,85 now is pointless since the odds already dropped to 1,5 for the under.

On a side note, in modern football you rarely see true starters anymore, this is not 1993. For Bayern's offense you have Lewandowski, that's it. The rest is rotating. I believe once he's healthy, James will be playing but like I posted here over a week ago before his injury, he has to get used to the Bundesliga first, he faces stiff competition for goal scoring opportunities (Lewandowski, Robben, Müller) and he doesn't shoot penalties. The injury is just the icing on the cake (not for him of course), u9.5 at 1,85 is great value now.

I didn't place a bet, I need as much money as possible to place my own bets in September...

[BonusPater]

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig - AG: Konoplyanka - Odds 4.20 

Will post some justification later. 

@Angellike regarding the season bets. Sorry I haven't provided any details. Unfortunately I don't have time to do this very often, and I'd rather post my bets without reasoning than not post anything at all. As there's no value anymore, I don't want to spend more time on that particular bet.

Hope to post a few more bets during the week.

[BonusPater]

Schalke to score over 49.5 goals in the Bundesliga

Stuttgart to score under 45.5 goals in the Bundesliga 

Bayern to score under 82.5 goals in the Bundesliga 

No crazy value here. Stuttgart being the one with the most.

[BonusPater]

As promised, here're a few words about why I think there's value in odds 4.20. 

Konoplyanka was considered one of the worst transfers of last season, and I can't say I disagree much with this, considering the value for money during the last year. I believe his poor performance was due to a few different things: 1. Weinzierl (former coach) should not expect any christmas card from the Ukrainian. The two were never best friends, and their relationship surely most have had an effect on the mental game. 2. It always takes time to get settled, after arriving at a new club in a new country. 3. He didn't fit in well in the formation. It was either wingback or striker, neither of which is his usual position.

This season everything seems to be changing. Schalke are playing a 3-4-3, and Kono is the perfect fit for the wing - he doesn't have to defend and can focus on what he does best. He's the positive surprise of the pre-season with quite a few great games, most recently in the cup where he scored both of Schalke's goals in the 0-2 win. He got a lot of great balls behind the defenders, and he could honestly have scored 4 goals in the game.

Leipzig is not the easiest of matches, but I expect the team from Gelsenkirchen to score (odds 1.27), and possibly two goals. Burgstaller (odds 2.90) and Kono (odds 4.20) are my favorites, and I don't think the odds on Kono reflects his new position and recent form.

[startelver]

Unibet are running a promotion this weekend boosting the odds of goal scorers. 

Robben to score for Bayern : 2.40     Is it realistic ? 

 

 

 

[BonusPater]

@startelver. Thanks for mentioning this promotion, wasn't aware of it.

For anyone who wants to see the odds, go to this page: https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting#filter/unibet_featured/football/goalscorer_weekend

2.40 is very decent (second highest on the market is 2.05), but I'd rather go with Aubameyang at odds 2. Tomorrow's game could very well be the first surprise of the year, and odds 15 on Leverkusen (not at Unibet) holds some decent value imo. If you want to bet on the Bayern vs Bayer match at Unibet, the Robben bet is not a bad pick though :) 

Recommend the Auba bet and will put 2 units on it:

VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund - AG: Aubameyang - Odds 2 (2 units)

[BonusPater]

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig - Over 2.5 goals - odds 1.94

[psrquack]

My prediction is 3-0.:-)

[BonusPater]

I hope you're right, but I think we'll see goals in both ends. Schalke are not exactly starting with the strongest defense, and even against BFC Dynamo they were struggling a bit.

[BonusPater]

Not the worst start :)

+2 units Auba ATG

+3.2 units Kono ATG

-1 unit S04 over 2.5

[BonusPater]

Will put together an Excel sheet like last season and post it later this week.

Unibet have got some real ❤️♥️❤️ty 1X2 odds on the Bundesliga this week, and I have had a hard time finding any value in the early odds. I'm sure there'll be something interesting by Friday or when the goal scorer odds are published. For now I've only got one bet for this week, and it's one with little value:

Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha Berlin - Over 3.5 goals - Odds 2.48 :cash: (Saturday 18:30 CET)

If you want something more risky and don't care much about the value, try the below ;)

Odds 238.1:

Odds 49.47:

 

 

[psrquack]

I think Hamburg will beat Köln tonight for 4,33.

[WuDu]

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@WuDu wrote:

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But still, Auba is a great pick at those odds, in my mind, we have the best offense in the Bundesliga right now! If Auba stays, we will be lethal...

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I told you guys 2 months ago! 6 games, 5 wins, 16:0 goals. Auba with 6 goals, Philipp with 4 and our best guy isn't even playing!

 giphy

 

 

[Livertool]

Pretty impressive indeed :rockon: