For those of you who are interested to know, two more candidates declared for the DemonRats over the last few days: Tulsi Gabbard and some dude named Castro. Both have no chance to make it out of the Democratic primaries as well. Tulsi is too far left for the right (pro abortion, pro gay marriage, believes in man made climate change) and too right for the far left (used to be strictly anti gay marriage in the past, is actually reasonable in other areas). Castro is the token latino who's happy for any TV time he can get.
Meanwhile at the White House:
There's this thing called the internet that allows you to access information from all over the world, you should try it as well...
I don't understand your first question. I firmly believe that in politics betting you don't need just a hunch but you also need some additional information to place a bet. For example, a lot of my analysis of the election in Bavaria was spot on, however some inside knowledge would have helped (FW voters switching to the AFD for the federal election in 2017 and then moving back to the FW for the state election in 201.
Another example would be the election in Canada this year. With Trudeau, you basically have a virtue-signaling village idiot running the country. Would I bet against him? No, because I have no clue about the intentions of the Canadian voters. To me, Canadians are the Swedes of North America.
Personally, O'Rourke would be the best opponent for us here. That's the type of guy that the Leftist propaganda really likes to push and write up, giving good odds for Trump, yet is absolutely hopeless against the God Emperor. However the Democratic party is full of nutjobs and anything can happen, since their primary is not going to be rigged in favor of one candidate like it was back in 15/16.
Maybe I'll post some updates here once the Democratic candidates roll in...
Call me Nostradamus:
Annie Leibovitz and Vanity Fair. Not bad, not bad...
Oh my God... How his wife was coached to look at him totally dreamy eyed...How he's fidgeting so much with his hands that his wife bounces up and down on the couch...How he proclaims himself to be the last great hope of earth...Even Unibet is not really sold on him (odds of 5,5). Trump is already making fun of him without even mentioning his DUI:
That leaves Creepy Joe Biden as the last contender to make his intentions official, so stay tuned for some betting analysis and "casual" recommendations over the next few days/weeks...
And Creepy Joe Biden decided to run today which should complete the field for the Democrats this year:
What a sorry group of people! I'm starting to get concerned that betting on Trump next year will not get the high odds I was hoping for. Anyway, for those of you looking to bet on the nominee for the Communists, the field is wide open. Over the last few months, it was always the newest candidate entering the race, that got his odds slashed, so there's definitely value here, as Unibet and other bookies have no clue about this race. The only guys having a realistic chance are the top-5 and in my mind, there's no way in hell that Biden or Sanders get the nomination!
Biden to win the Democratic nominee now down to 4.50 here at Unibet. You guys are believing the hype and falling for the mainstream media propaganda again? Trump is filling arenas with his rallies and this is the sight of Biden's first event after declaring:
Guys, the first debates of the Democrats are about to start this week, meaning the next presidential election in the US is just 1.5 years away. So I think I should update this topic a little more often to look for nice betting value and to cause anxiety among the community members and moderators... As usual, if you have questions, feel free to ask. And if you disagree feel free to voice your opinion as well...
First things first, Emperor Trump is getting re-elected in 2020, of course. No single doubt about it. In poker terms, betting on Trump means you're holding AA and the flop comes A-A-x rainbow. The only question is how to get the best return on your investment. Unibet offers 2,10 for Trump to be re-elected which is great value, however I believe that we're going to see better odds next year and maybe you'd prefer not to lock up your funds for 18 months.
On the Democratic side, the outcome to bet on would be which candidate is getting nominated. Let's take a look at the odds:
Despite having candidates in the dozens, the democrats don't have 1 viable candidate this election cycle. There were a few acceptable ones though like former NY mayor Bloomberg (declined to run due to the turn to the left of the Democrats), or the CEO of Starbucks (running as an independant) or Tulsi Gabbard (no chance in hell).
To me, only the top-5 have a shot at the nomination, however all of those 5 are deeply flawed.
Biden is the favorite right now, however I don't think he'll win! Forget about his corruption as Vice President under Obama (his son's business deals in China, Ukraine), forget about his failures when it came to foreign policy (Syria, Libya, North Korea, Iran nuclear deal), forget about the tons of creepy youtube videos of him. His biggest sins are that he's old, white, male and straight. That's a big no-no for the left today. Besides that, since he announced to run, he's been mumbling and stumbling through his campaign and I believe his age will show during the debates.
Pocahontas at #2 is an interesting case. As you might know, she pretended to be Native American for most of her life. Problem is, she wasn't. Trump picked it up and trolled her about it, even offering a million $ if she took a DNA test. Well, at the beginning of the year she took one, which determined that she's 1/1024th native American. Which is a lower percentage in comparison to the average White American. But wait, it get's better. She then went at Trump demanding her million $! Of course, that caused a backlash and she's now going the "I made a mistake, let's look ahead" route. The interesting part is that the other candidates are just trash and she's the only one actually putting out policy proposals (most of them are stupid, but at least she puts out something). Leading to her climbing up again.
Comrade Bernie at #3 has a real chance, however, I don't see it. 4 years ago, he competed in a 2 candidate race against pure evil: Hillary Clinton. Of course that fact alone got him a lot of votes. This time around, the novelty has worn off and voters have way more choices, especially on the lunatic left. Basically all he does is pander to certain groups, spout his communist ideology and talk bad about Trump. That gets boring really quick. If the Clintons still have anything to say in the party, he won't be the nominee. Not after challengin Queen Hillary in 15/16...
Kamala at #4 is also interesting as she used to be the favorite at Unibet a while ago. However she has absolutely no substance backing that up. Her claim to fame is that she's a black woman. But that's it.
Remember when I said that the media likes to push someone like Beto O'Rourke? Well, Beto completely imploded, so the media found someone new: 10 years younger and gay! Mayor Buttigieg. Sure he has a shot as well, however I don't see it! No!
The rest of the candidates are just in for personal promo and fame.
From a betting perspective, I see value in Pocahontas (6,5), Sanders (7.5) and Kamala (7,5). Of course, they're all flawed but someone has to be the nominee! Think of it like a crappy hand in Omaha: Sure, KQ75 doesn't sound too great, however if you're sitting on the button and you can see a flop for cheap, why not?
Little fun fact: Despite being 198 years old and being in politics for 50 years and running for president twice, Joe Biden only took part in 1 (ONE) primary election:
He dropped out after only getting 1 % of the votes!
If you would like to place a bet and given the current odds, I see real value in placing 3 separate bets on Pocahontas, Sanders and Kamala, bascially going against Biden here. I'll stay away for now, but maybe you're interested in a little bit of gamboooooling...
Is there any odds for Hillary? A just for fun bet would be awesome. Btw no chance for a man if he isn't gay or deprived, so I wonder why Biden is on the first place.
To win it all?
I think for Biden it's about money, influence and staying relevant. If you look at his "performance" over the last few weeks, it's obvious that he's not into it, there's no energy around him. He's flip-flopping on issues like he's changing his underwear and I'm sure he knows that he's not going to become president in 2020. However had he decided not to run, that would have meant his retirement and retired people are not receiving bribe money or getting asked for support.
The public has not really caught up to it yet and is going strictly for name recognition with Biden here, however once the first debates come around, the other candidates can make a name for themselves as well. If you're willing to gamble, the odds you're getting now for the other candidates are pretty solid even if you have to bet on 2 or 3 of them at the same time.
You're right, if you're not part of a victimized group (dark skinned minorities/foreigners/muslims, gays/trannies, women), you're in for a rough ride running for office on the left. However you can try to overcome this "deficiency" by apologizing for being white/straight/male and displaying insane levels of wokeness and pandering to the respective groups. The posterboy for this behaviour is Justin Trudeau from Canada: