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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

The first bet is AFD over 13.5.

Like I mentioned during the BTW17, the key to every election in Germany from 2016 and later is Ms Merkel’s decision to leave the borders open in 2015 and let in people who have absolutely no business being here. This total loss of control, supported by the Fake News (public) Media is the event that drove former non-voters to the polls. In Germany, people tend to sometimes take a little longer to wake up and realize what’s going on. During the BTW17, 7.393.210 people voted in Bavaria, that’s an increase of 812.455 voters compared to the BTW13. Now let’s take a look at the different political sides. The 4 conservative parties (CSU, AFD, FW and FDP) had 4.736.434 voters during the BTW17, that’s 64 % of all voters and an increase in conservative voters of 875.137.

The 4 main leftist parties (SPD, Greens, Left, Pirates) reached 2.330.716 voters (31.5%) increasing their voters by 87.035. As this easily shows, the increase in voters comes from the right side with the AFD reaching 916.300 (12,394%) and the FDP reaching 751.248 (10,161%).

If you look at the results of the AFD in the 8 LTWs post 2015 and compare those results with the BTW17 in the respective states, there is an interesting conclusion to be made:

AFD voters show up to state elections as well as federal elections, they hardly stay at home. Out of those 8 LTWs, the AFD reached more than 12 % in 5 of them: Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for a total of 1.748.386 votes. During the BTW17 in those states alone, the AFD collected 1.638.117 votes. Actually the AFD lost a few votes during the BTW, despite 12 % additional voters showing up in those states for the BTW17. This is interesting, because in Bavaria 916.300 people voted for them in the BTW17, giving us a reason to believe they will show up as well. 916.300/6.512.000 = 14% for the lowest participation and 916.300/6.846.000 = 13.4% for the highest participation.

If those assumptions are true, the “over” would already win for a voting % lower than 71 %. But there’s more. Like I said, Germans tend to wake up a little slower and some need to take a little longer to understand changes in the society. Also don’t underestimate the effects of the massive propaganda being run against the AFD from state- and independent media. Like Kanye West said a few days ago: “90 % of the news is run by liberals”. In all of Germany, the AFD made 12,6 % during the BTW17, so the result for Bavaria was at the top for West Germany. 12 months later, the AFD is polled at 18 % at most pollsters and even the fake ones have them at 16% right now, meaning the AFD is stronger than last year.

The CDU/CSU accumulated 32,9% last year and are currently polled at 28, 27, 26 %. So we have the #2 conservative party in Bavaria rising and the #1 conservative party falling massively in the polls, while Bavarian results were on par with the federal results. Even for my highest voting turnout projection, the AFD only has to “steal” 10.000 votes from the CSU which is closest to the AFD and will lose a few 100.000 this election, to secure the “over” here. Alternatively they can also take a few from the FDP who tends to underperform during state elections in Bavaria.

The bet is risky, but my numbers are pretty straight forward in that regard. Personally, I doubt the AFD will reach 18 % in Bavaria, but 15 % is doable.   

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

The second bet is SPD over 11,5.

The third bet is the Greens under 17,5.

I’ll analyze these two bets together because they are connected to each other. The SPD is going down. It’s the oldest party in Germany, but they’ve been steadily run into the ground. Last year, I was pretty good at projecting the SPD’s result so let’s try again. In the BTW17, the SPD gained 1.130.931 votes for 15,297% in Bavaria. That was the worst result of all time and they still managed to screw up even more. In all of Germany, they received 20,5% a year ago and are now being polled at about 16%.

What I have shown last year was that SPD voters typically show up to every election. Other voters stay home for state election but not the SPD guys. If the opinion polling is correct, the SPD retained 16/20,5 of their voters this year, which are roughly 78,5 %. 78,5 % of 1.130.931 is 887,780 voters or 13,5 % for participation prediction #2.

In case the SPD loses a little due to less people showing up for the LTW, I project them to receive 822.919 votes (12,5 %). In the LTW08, the SPD received one of their worst results in Bavaria with just 986.219 votes, which was still more than 160.000 votes higher than I project them now. In case my highest participation projection is true, the SPD would end up with 12 %.

All those are horrible results for the SPD, they gained 20 % in the LTW13, however they are still over 11,5 %. Let’s be clear, the SPD is living off substance and I hope they start rotting rather sooner than later, however it’s also the oldest party in Germany with a vast infrastructure. The media right now is doing all they can to prop up the Greens, however I think, the losses of the SPD will not be as heavy as predicted.

Having said that, the Greens seem to be on a run over the last half year. However if you look at the different polling results, you can realize that the gains of the Greens almost exclusively come at the expense of the SPD. Leftist nutjobs are unhappy with the role of the SPD in the German government and move on to the left, specifically to the Greens. However 17,5 % in HeartHeartsHeart Bavaria? No, no, no, I simply don’t see that happening. Bavaria is a traditional and conservative state, 55 % Catholics, very well run, great economy and during the last BTW, 64 % voted for conservative parties.

Let’s take a look at the number of voters the SPD and the Greens attracted together in Bavaria over the past 3 federal elections: In the BTW09 they received 1.839.294 votes, in the BTW13 they got 1.866.827 votes, in the BTW17 they had 1.853.047 supporters. In 2009 and 2013, each time 6,6 M people voted in total. In 2017, 7,4 M people voted.

You can see the base for the SPD and the Greens has been extremely stable, regardless how many people actually voted. During the LTW13, 1.728.388 people voted for SPD and Greens with only 5,9 M people casting a vote.

In order to reach 17,5 %, the Greens would have to collect roughly somewhere between 1,15 M and 1,2 M votes. I’m expecting the SPD to get between 822.000 and 888.000 votes which raises the question of where the additional votes should be coming from? Even with the Greens hypothetically taking all former SPD votes, the SPD+Greens-base has to increase to 1,97 M or even 2,08 M voters. Again, those are 250.000-300.000 more voters for these two parties in comparison to the last state election.

There are 7 main political parties: The Left is hovering around 5 % and the voters of that party usually stay at home for the Bavarian state election. The AFD is not losing to the Greens. The FW are conservatives already in opposition to the CSU, leaving just the CSU herself and the FDP. I can see some Munich hipsters switching from the FDP to the Greens, but not 250.000 of them. Meaning the Greens would have to steal voters from the CSU and I simply cannot see that happening.

Personally, I have the Greens projected between 840.220 and 1.047.580 votes (13-16%). If everything goes in their favor and they can increase the SPD+Greens-base by 12 % (this is the rate some polling institutes see them in Germany), they could end up between 16,2 and 17 %, depending on how many people cast a vote. However I see them below 17,5 %.

To conclude, you also have to be aware that polling in Bavaria is far from an exact science. During the LTW13, the greens were also estimated to reach between 12-15 % and just ended up with 8,6%. Last year, the CSU was expected to reach 47 % and ended up with just 38,8%. Most of the pollsters and media people are leftists so I can see them “interpreting” the raw data in a way that suits them well (*cough* Hillary 4 President *cough*).

So I decided to go against the polls this time with

AFD o13,5

SPD o11,5

Greens u17,5.

Those bets are risky, Mr Kavanaugh to be confirmed was 95+ % certain to me, here I’d give myself something like a 60 % chance. To me, the numbers and the overall data is clear, however there can also be the chance that something is happening in Bavaria that is not reflected in those numbers.

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Today is election day and I'm already hyped up! Last polls have the Greens at 19, The SPD at 11 and the AFD at 10 (Rofl) and 14.

Also thanks a lot to the punks who bet on Lyin' Ted Cruz to stay senator for Texas, his odds went from 1,4 to 1,08. I wanted my share of the action as well, but no...

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

First projection:

SPD at 9,5, Afd at 11 and the freaking Greens at 19. That would be 0-3 for me. Scared

Let's see if those projections hold, however 9,5 % for the Social Democrats is incredibly low, those guys kill 2 of my bets with one stone...

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

@WuDu wrote:

First projection:

SPD at 9,5, Afd at 11 and the freaking Greens at 19. That would be 0-3 for me. Scared

Let's see if those projections hold, however 9,5 % for the Social Democrats is incredibly low, those guys kill 2 of my bets with one stone...


Short analysis:

AFD o13,5 was a low value pick in hindsight. During the federal election, a lot of "Freie Wähler" went over to the AFD and the FDP and now went back to the FW. I wouldn't make such a bet again.

SPD finished under 10 % which is insane and I guess one of the worst, if not the worst result in Western Germany since WW2 for them. The worst national projection had them going from 20.5 to 16 %, however in Bavaria they collapsed even further: 15,3 to 9,7 %. It's funny, if they stay in the government, they will lose and lose, if they leave the government, a lot of career politicians will lose their jobs.

@Jeppe-Unibet

The official result has the Greens at 17.5 % right now. For o/u 17.5 %, that's a push, isn't it?

The Greens u17.5 was my "proudest" moment here, because I made a lot of correct assumptions. A voting-% of more than 72 %, the Greens and SPD staying rather steady with respect to their absolute number of voters, the Greens basically only stealing from the SPD (the whole right wing made around 62 %). It was bascially like PSG vs Barca in the UCL a few years ago, with me being PSG: PSG wins 4-0 at home and everything worked out perfectly and then they lose 1-6 in Barcelona. The SPD only getting 9,7% is my 1-6...

Congrats to the sportsbook guys at Unibet, the odds were well set. I'll sit out the next regional elections in Germany and see if I find something nice for the US mid-terms.

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Guys, after betting on Mr Kavanaugh and the election in Bavaria  I'm roughly 110 Euro in the hole! Das not it mane! Kavanaugh started well, everything was fine and dandy, but then out of a sudden the horror set in...

tumblr_m5y7apLjOC1rqfhi2o1_250

But in a little less than two weeks, I get the chance to hopefully turn this fiasco around and end up in even money or a little bit on the plus side with a huge chunk of divine intervention:

svuJhlr

The midterms are up in the US in less than two weeks! Cash 1

Thanks to @BonusPater's excellent fantasy league, I already have some free bets placed on the Republicans holding the senate:

senate.png

The odds are now at 1,20. But I'd like to find some additional bets to make up my real money losses so far. Since I'm always well informed when it comes to US politics, thanks to reading Breitbart, watching Fox News and following @realdonaldtrump on twitter, I decided to bet heavily this time around...Scared

I personally think the democRats are shook to the bone right now. After their #metoo stunt with Dr Fraud and the migrant caravan from middle America not only didn't work but also backfired on them, they now pulled up the "false flag- fake bombs" play out of their playbook. Laugh 

 

vqiqrom118u11

 I have a few races in mind, but I have to do some additional research first. In addition to that, I hope that the Fake News media here in Europe pushes that bomb story a little more, leading to more people betting on the democRats, giving me slightly better odds. Stay tuned...

 

 

 

 

 

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

false_flag_cartoon

 

Laugh

 

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
Reply
WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

Great election results this weekend! In Germany, the government parties of CDU and SPD lost over 21 %-points combined in the Hessian state election.Laugh Very well deserved for people who govern like they do. And of course in Brazil Mr Bolsonaro has been elected president!giphy-downsized-large

 The best part however is that #prayforbrazil is up on twitter! Waterfall Well, rightfully so since Mr Bolsonaro was sitting in jail due to accepting bribes to buy a nice million Dollar beach house. He was also in charge of a country with 65.000 yearly murders and blatant corruption (WC 14, Rio Olympics). Oh wait, that were his opponents...Laugh Yeah, par for the course for the communists on twitter...

So the mid-terms are up in one week and I'm going to share my first picks. Again follow them at your own risk if you want, but be aware I could also be wrong like in Bavaria. My basic strategy is to bet on Republican M-A-G-A candidates being supported by Trump in order to cash in on Unibet's left wing bias. The mid-terms are traditionally elections where the governing party is going to lose, however with Trump things are different. The last time the governing party won during the mid-terms was in 2002 (Republicans after 9/11). In 2006, the Republicans under George W Bush lost (Iraq war, Katrina). In 10 and 14, the Democrats lost seats (Obama being an incompetent communist).

Trump is having a great presidency so far and in 2025 when he leaves office, he'll either go down as one of the GOATs or as a conservative folk hero, mark my words. Heck, the US economy is running so hot, even Obama desperately tries to take credit for it. Laugh However even more importantly, Trump is campaigning, holding speeches 4-5 times a week now. On Fox News, the evening hosts are pushing their viewers to vote for the last 2 months or so. And last but not least, the Democrats are an absolute trainwreck with their support of mobs running through the street, their anti Kavanaugh stance and their impeachment talk. That should be enough motivation for conservatives to show up.

Speaking of showing up, Trump vs Obama from last week:

dfzdvvf0oxt11

 Barry having trouble filling a high school gym, Trump filling the arena of the Houston Rockets, with even more people watching outside. So my first bets are:

senate.png

 Some small ones to warm up first: Senate election in Indiana, Braun to win. Breitbart currently has him ahead by 3 % and the state voted pro Trump in 2016 (57-38 ).

Senate election in Missouri, Hawley to win. Breitbart has him up 49-45 right now, and his opponent has trouble now due to her anti Kavanaugh position. One week ago, Hawley was up with just 1 %-point.

More bets are likely to come, once I checked out some of the higher odds candidates.

 

 

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
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WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

My fellow Euro friends, today is a great day to celebrate:

Angela-merkel-to-step-down-from-party-leadership-after-humiliating-electionsgiphy

 Good luck, stepping down from party leadership, yet hoping to govern us into the ground as a lame duck for three more years. Those of you with balls of steel might want to bet on snap elections in Germany in 2019 (5,00) or 2020 (3.50). This nightmare will soon be over...

 

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
Reply
WuDu Rank 21
Rank 21

And two additional bets for the mid-terms:

mid.PNG

 DeSantis is running to be governor of Florida against a corrupt Obama-type communist. This is my first value bet, as Gillum is polled ahead right now. However I believe with Trump holding his rally tonight in Florida, this will swing. Heller is running for senate in Nevada and has already been endorsed by Trump at another rally.

King Trump is also in full campaign mode right now, planning to end birthright citizenship in the US. I really like what I see from him this election season.  

 

 

We're gonna win on so many levels! We're gonna win, win, win. You're gonna get so tired of winning, you're gonna say: "Mr. President please, we don't wanna win anymore, it's too much!" And I'm gonna say: "I'm sorry, we're gonna keep winning because we're gonna make America great again!"
God Emperor Trump
Reply