Wow, those hearings were actually tough to listen I guess every country nowadays has their own highly visible media-sponsored martyrs of moronism, but those stakes are high AF.
Glad the circus starts to turn into reality.
Something you might want to watch while laying on a moneymattress
Thought it was pretty interesting, found it on Netflix. And it's about the political game around the persons, so not that forcefully focused on just smearing down the Trump image, which was nice..
how much did you wager?
OK, I'll post the tickets once Unibet has paid it out, it takes a little longer with those political bets. @Ray-Unibet could you take a look at what's holding up the payout? Mr Kavanaugh has already been sworn in, the bet is "completed".
Also, @Ray-Unibet, could you ask the sportsbook guys whether you could offer the o/u on the voting participation percentage in Bavaria?
Man, the Kavanaugh money hasn't been credited yet, I hope Unibet doesn't make me wait till the end of the month. However I have now shifted my attention to German politics and already placed two bets for the election in Bavaria next weekend after spending a few hours looking at my data. I'm going to write a lengthy analysis over the next few days (all for you, my dear readers ) and post it at the end of the week, but before Sunday, of course. I think that's also good for me, otherwise I might be inclined to bet a tad more than I really wanted. Stay tuned...
Finally some odds movement here at Unibet for the Bavarian election and to me, all 4 parties are now in play as my data suggest different results than some of the polls want to make the public believe. Really tough to not place another bet for me...
Two days left until the election and here are my picks.
To get an introduction into the data I'm using, check out this topic from last year:
If you have questions, feel free to ask.
There are a few things that separate the election in Bavaria (LTW) from the federal election in Germany (BTW). In Bavaria, voters have two votes that count equally. So when I write a party is going to receive 100.000 votes, it actually means they receive twice as many votes. However in order to compare LTW and BTW with each other, I divided all votes in Bavaria by two. %-wise, the results will almost be the same, except for the CSU who profits from that system to the extent of 1 %.
Now let’s introduce the 7 most important parties:
The CSU is the sister party of Ms Merkel’s CDU. The CSU only operates in Bavaria while the CDU operates in the rest of Germany, but stays out of Bavaria. The CSU is traditionally a little to the right of the CDU. The refugees welcome lunacy will cost them.
The SPD are the social democrats and they’re basically a dying party now. They will lose big league.
The AFD is the only hope Germany has left and they’re practically the last remaining true conservative party out there. Won massively due to Merkel’s mistakes. Of course, according to the socialists in the Fake News Media, that makes them Nazis, racists, homophobes, transphobes, xenophobes, islamophobes and so on…
The Greens are basically far left social justice warriors on crack. Depending how you look at it, they are either naïve fanatics or belong in a mental institution. Pro women, pro islam, pro migrants, pro Antifa, against borders, against nuclear power, against coal, against (white) men, used to be pro pedos, against Trump (of course), believe in the wage gap hoax, believe in the man made climate change hoax and so on…Basically what you can see every day on CNN.
The FDP are liberals in the sense of individual freedom and free flowing markets. Used to be branded as the “party of the high income earners”, then branded themselves as the “fun party”, had huge success in 09 and were doing so poorly in the government, that they were kicked out of the Bundestag 4 years later. Now, thanks to the migrant crisis, they’re back in.
Frei Wähler (FW) is a local party in Bavaria. Mainly disgruntled former CSU politicians and amateurs that want to help in their local community. Mainly conservative.
The Left are just filthy communists.
The first thing you have to look at during the upcoming election in Bavaria is the voting participation. How many people are actually showing up to cast their ballot? As I’ve shown before, the % is higher for the BTW than for the LTW. On the other hand however, the LTW18 will be the first LTW in Bavaria after Ms Merkel made her foolish mistake in 2015 to open up our borders to over a million 3rd world people. As I’ve also shown before, this mistake lead to a conservative increase in the voting %. People like me, decided to not stay at home and vote for the AFD or the FDP instead.
That means, we’ll see an increase in the voting % in comparison to the LTW13 but a reduction in comparison to the BTW17. In 2013 the LTW took place one week ahead of the BTW. The LTW13 had 88,7 % of the participation of the BTW13. With 7.393.210 Bavarians voting during the BTW17, this leads us to an estimation of 6,558,000 voters in the LTW18 or 69,5 %.
The second way to estimate is to see how many non-voters decided to vote again during the 8 LTWs in 2016 and 2017 and during the BTW17. Both of these numbers are around 18 %. If we assume that 18 % of the non-voters from LTW13 show up to vote this weekend, we reach a projection of 6.512.000 voters.
The third way is to look at how many non-voters voted during the BTW17 in Bavaria alone. Here the number skyrockets to almost 27 %. If the people of Bavaria show up at that rate, the projection climbs to 6.846.000 voters (over 72 % participation).
None of the three projections is more likely than the others, however I’m very confident that the true numbers fall somewhere near or between my projections. To conclude, let’s take a look at the numbers:
LTW13: 5.910.896 voters
LTW18 Projection1: 6.512.000
LTW18 Projection2: 6.558.000
LTW18 Projection3: 6.846.000