Betting on the election in Germany

[WuDu]

Hi guys,

Here I want to share my picks for the German election next Sunday. But first I want to introduce myself:

https://www.unibetcommunity.com/t5/Betting-and-Sports/US-elections/m-p/25142#M7283

Over the last eight months, I've analyzed the political situation in Germany, set up an Excel database and wrote over 3.000 words in Microsoft Word. When sharing my picks my goals were always to profit myself, help other members get some extra cash and to make fun of liberals. :Laugh: Unfortunately for you, the Unibet traders are far from stupid, meaning one bet is not being offered right now and another lost part of its value.

However, since I already wrote my analysis, I might as well share it with you, so you can decide whether or not to place a bet for yourself. I'm going to check my Word file for typos and post everything later today. If you have questions about certain picks or Germany, go ahead and ask.       

 

[WuDu]

When it comes to betting on the federal election in Germany, the first thing I want to focus on is the voter turnout. Unibet started with an o/u of 71,5 % in August. This is an interesting number as it represents the turnout for the last federal election back in 2013. The question now is, are more people going to vote this year than they did 4 years ago? At first glance, especially if you have no real knowledge about politics in Germany, setting the o/u at 71,5 seems plausible. The last time an election exceeded this number was back in 2005 when 77 % of Germans voted during the federal election. However things look much differently with a better knowledge of Germany and German politics.

If you want to analyze the current climate in Germany, you only have to look back two years: Since Angela Merkel’s stupid and unlawful decision to open our borders to over 1,4 million economic migrants posing as refugees, the political landscape has turned upside down. Parties that were dead in the water (FDP, AFD) are now locks to reach the next Bundestag. Media outlets that were trusted before have been exposed as Fake News. The public’s confidence in the state to uphold law and order has taken a massive hit. All this lead to a higher voter turnout in the last state elections. Let’s take a closer look at the state elections since Ms Merkel opened the borders in September 2015:

 Since opening the borders, there have been 8 state elections: In Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and NRW. To make things easier, I’ll refer to these 8 elections as the “Sample 8”. The total number of potential voters in those states is a tad more than 32,6 million people, compared to around 62 million potential voters in all of Germany. The Sample 8 makes up a little bit more than half of our potential voters. Now let’s compare the results post 2015 to the previous state election in those states from 2011/12 by looking at the valid votes:

Before Ms Merkel opened our borders, the Sample 8 states generated 19.591.709 valid votes, resulting in a percentage of 59,65%. During the elections in 2016/17, the Sample 8 generated 21.547.110 valid votes, resulting in a percentage of 65,90%. In 2016/17 2.099.587 people went to vote that didn’t back in 2011/12. If you add the decline in potential voters in those states (144.186) to the equation, we arrive at a total number of 2.243.773.

That means, with 2.243.773 additional votes, almost 17 % of former non-valid voters turned into valid voters! Out of those 8 states, each and every one saw a spike in valid votes percentage with the least increase being 4,3 % in Schleswig-Holstein and the highest one being over 11 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Now you might argue that this has nothing to do with the migrant crisis, maybe it’s just people being more interested in state politics. Alright, let’s take a look at the state elections since Ms Merkel was voted back into office in 2013 up until September 2015:

During that time-frame we had elections in 5 states: Sachsen, Brandenburg, Thüringen, Hamburg and Bremen. All in all 4.483.949 valid votes were generated in 2014/15. During the previous state elections however we had 5.169.769 valid votes total. That’s a loss of 685.820 votes!

As you can see, something happened in 2015 that increased the voter turnout in the states and this something is the migrant crisis. If you not only look at it from a numbers position, but also focus on the reasoning of the voters, it totally makes sense:

It’s tough to comprehend the madness of our government blowing dozens of billions of Euros into the rotten Greek economy so a topic like that doesn’t lead to higher turnout. Tax reforms, healthcare reforms are important aspects, but let’s be honest most people either don’t care that much or are too stupid to understand. However when you open the borders and all of a sudden you have people coming in that have no business staying in Germany, when you witness an explosion of crimes committed by foreigners, rape, molestation cases and terrorism never seen before, people start to care. Especially if that goes along with the public Fake News media in Germany trying its best to downplay/not report anything that makes the decision to open the borders look bad.

Another aspect that supports this assumption is the fact that the two parties with the biggest gains in voters among the Sample 8 states are the AFD and the FDP. Both of them were walking dead in the summer of 2015 with polling numbers below 5 percent. Both of them are currently not in the Bundestag. Both of them are tougher than the rest on immigration. The AFD gained 2,5 million new voters, the FDP gained 800.000 new voters. Not only did we see an increase of 2,24 million voters in the Sample 8, we also saw almost 3,3 million additional voters in favor of parties promoting a stricter approach to the migrant crisis.  

Now you might argue that this sounds all fine and dandy, however the percentage of valid votes in the Sample 8 were 65,90%, however we need more than 71,5 % for the over. That’s absolutely correct, however in Germany there’s a certain interest level attached to each election. Traditionally, federal elections have the highest turnout, round about 10 %-points higher than state elections. However this depends a little on the respective state, left-wing dumpster fires like Bremen usually have a worse turnout than rock-solid states like Baden-Württemberg. In addition to that, city hall-, county parliament-, or EU-elections even attract less voters.  

So how do I know that the 6.25 %-point gain in the Sample 8 is not just federal election voters deciding to vote in the states as well?

Short answer: I don’t, that’s why this activity is called betting.

Long answer:  It’s highly unlikely that we see such an increase in the states without seeing an increase during the federal elections as well. Germany is not like the US where maybe only half of the population votes, we have a much higher interest in politics. However Ms Merkel did her very best to push the voter turnout to all-time lows. In the Sample 8 states, we saw a clear shift to the right (3,6 million additional votes) and these guys will vote again this September.

Back in 2013, there were not many options available for conservative voters: The CDU is only conservative on paper. Since Ms Merkel took on the lead, the party more and more moved to the left. Yes, in 2013 the CDU/CSU gained 7,7 %-points, however the reason for that was the incredible weakness of the FDP which lost 9,8 %-points. In addition to that, the AFD wasn’t felt needed by a large chunk of conservative voters. I voted CDU in 2002 and 2005 and stopped voting in 2009 and 2013 for the very reason I just explained. Thanks to having an “alternative” this year, I already voted during the state elections and I will do so again during the federal elections and I’m sure I’m not the only one with that voting history.

Now the question is how high do I project the voter turnout to be this year? Let’s assume the tendency from the Sample 8 states continues, meaning we’ll see 17 % of non-voters and non-valid-voters in 2013 voting valid in 2017. In 2013 we had 18,22 million people not casting a valid vote. If this number decreases by 17 %, we’ll reach a projection of 15,12 million non- and non-valid votes in 2017. With round about 62 million voters in Germany, that would result in 75,6 % valid votes. Voter turnout equals all the valid votes plus all the non-valid votes. Non-valid votes are when people show up at the voting booth and tick more than one box or write in another candidate. Non-valid votes usually make up a tad more than 1 % of all votes which would lead us to a voter turnout of almost 77 %.

In 2005 we had a turnout of 77,7 % with 14,6 million non- and non-valid-votes, so 77 % is nothing astronomical. The last o/u where I would take the over would be 73,5 or 74 %. So anything below that is value!

I placed bets on the over at 71,5 % and 73,5 %. In my mind, the 71,5 % was a gift from the bookies, however only time will tell.

Right now, Unibet doesn’t offer this bet anymore, but maybe that changes again this week.

[WuDu]

Now let’s analyze the different parties. As you could see, I place a high value on the previous state elections. The advantage here is clear: Polls can easily be manipulated, which I recognized during the US presidential election and willingly exploited. My first idea was to look at the AFD numbers and basically hope to catch some nice odds with the help of Unibet’s left wing bias. However when I analyzed the numbers from the sample 8, I found something much better: The SPD is in deep, deep trouble and no one in the German media has published what I found out.

If you take a look at the absolute number of SPD voters in the states as well as in the republic you can see that regardless of the type of election, be it state or federal, the SPD always mobilizes their hardcore base and no one else.

During the federal election in 2013, the SPD gained 6.294.482 votes in the sample 8. During the state elections in 2011/12 leading up to our last federal election, the SPD gained 6.289.806 votes. Now if you might remember when I talked about the voter turnout, Germans are more motivated to vote in the federal election than in state elections. During the 2013 federal elections, 23.379.802 people voted in the sample 8, during the 2011/12 sample 8 state elections 19.591.709 people voted.

If we compare the numbers we can see something extremely mind-boggling: The SPD doesn’t profit at all from the higher turnout during federal elections. From 2011/12 to 2013 the number of voters increased by 3.788.093, however the number of SPD voters just increased by 4676. That means the SPD generated 1 additional vote for every 810 new voters. That’s a marginal percentage of just 0,12 %.

To give you one last example, let’s take a look at the SPD in NRW, which is the utmost important state for them. In 2009 during the federal election they received 2.678.956 votes with a turnout of 9.389.412 people. A few months later in early 2010 we had state elections in NRW and the SPD got 2.675.818 votes with 7.760.546 people voting. With the elections just being a few months apart, the SPD only had 3138 more votes during the federal election, despite 1.628.866 more total voters. In this case that’s a marginal percentage of 0,19 %.

I could give you a lot more of these examples, however I guess you get my point: The base of voters for the SPD is steady, SPD voters vote all the time and don’t distinguish between state and federal elections. There are even 3 states (Rheinland-Pfalz, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Hamburg) where the SPD gets more total votes in the state elections than in the federal elections. That’s what I call a “beloved prime minister” –situation.

So by looking at the past state elections, we’re getting a pretty good idea of the state of the SPD and their potential turnout during the federal elections. We also have a projection for the voter turnout, so if we bring these two figures together, we’ll get a solid starting point of what the SPD result may look like.

If we take a look at the sample 8 results for the SPD, the numbers are incredibly bad: Despite the fact that 2,24 million additional voters turned out, the SPD lost 912.241 voters in comparison to the state elections in 2011/12. During the state elections in 2011/12 the SPD came up with 32,104% of all the votes, during the state elections in 2016/17 this number fell to 24,957 %.

In contrast to the federal election in 2013, the SPD lost 14,56% of their voters. If we use this result to extrapolate the potential number of voters for the remaining eight states as well, we get the following estimation: In 2013, 11.252.215 people voted SPD. If we reduce this number by 14,56 %, we’ll end up at 9.613.105 potential votes. Heck, in my excel calculation I gave them an additional 10 K for the LOLs as well due to the higher voter turnout.

Let’s assume we get 75 % valid votes out of the 62 million potential voters in Germany, that would lead to 46.5 million in absolute numbers and an estimated projection of 20,69 % for the SPD. Since the SPD doesn’t profit from a higher turnout, the more people show up to vote, the lower the percentage for the SPD.

At 74 % valid votes, the SPD rate would jump to 20,95 %, at 73 % valid votes the SPD would get 21,24 %.

Those numbers are not insane if you take a look at the past federal elections: The SPD had their worst result of all time back in 2009. That year they were also coming out as the junior partner of a “grand coalition” with the CDU similar to this year. In 2009 we saw an all-time low in voter turnout with just 43.371.190 people showing up. The SPD managed an all-time low of just 9.990.488 votes which led to just 23,03 %.

In 2009, the number of voters in the sample 8 were 5.520.886. In 2016/17 they received 5.377.565 votes in the sample 8, meaning they are 143.321 votes behind the pace of their all time low. But what really kills them is the projected higher turnout. If we really see 46,5 million people showing up to vote, that’s more than 3,1 million more than in 2009.

Those estimations are educated guesses, however they clearly show a specific direction. Gun to my head, the absolute last o/u where I’d bet the under would be 22 %.

After checking out the data of the SPD, let’s take a look at the qualitative side of things and boy oh boy, it looks even worse for this party. The SPD faces at least three major problems: The overall political climate, the lack of message and probably the worst candidate of all time.

If you look at the political climate, the SPD has the problem that for the last four years they were the junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU. That’s never a good place to be in as grand coalitions have the tendency to strengthen the political extremes on the right and on the left. If you are a leftie torn between The Left and the SPD, why would you choose the SPD if it also enables a more conservative party as well? This will be even more magnified due to the fact that this government made a bunch of lunatic decisions. If you as a voter are happy with Germany opening up its borders, then you support Ms Merkel and the CDU. If you are unhappy with that decision, you either vote AFD or FDP. If you want even more migrants and stop deportations you can pick the two parties straight out of the looney bin, the Greens or the Left. But there’s no real reason to vote SPD.

So what is the SPD’s message? Germans right now are most concerned with immigration, islam, crime and terror; topics that are very well connected. In addition to that the level of pensions, employment/wages and rents play an important role. The problem is, those are all topics where (center)-left-wing parties are not trusted at all. CDU and SPD do all in their power to avoid the immigration topic because this is a problem where they cannot win. So what is the SPD doing? They’re centering their campaign around social fairness/social justice. But there’s one major flaw, out of the last 19 years, the SPD has been a part of the federal government for 15 years! If the system is so flawed, why didn’t they do anything about it during the past two decades?  In fact it was the SPD who started the huge welfare reforms back in 2004/05 which are seen extremely critical within their core supporters.

So basically in order to avoid a topic where they are considered borderline incompetent by the majority of the voters, they set up another one where they are not trusted by their base. What could go wrong?

The final flaw is the candidate to become Bundeskanzler, Martin Schulz. Let’s take a look at the past SPD-candidates starting in 1990:

Lafontaine (1990), PM of Saarland; Scharping (1994) PM of Rheinland-Pfalz; Schröder ( 1998 ) PM of Niedersachsen; Schröder ( 2002 ) Bundeskanzler; Schröder ( 2005 ) Bundeskanzler; Steinmeier (2009) Foreign Minister; Steinbrück (2013) former PM of NRW.

Do you see a pattern here? Except Steinmeier, who had the worst result of all time, all former candidates have won state elections in the past. Schulz however worked in Brussels for the EU.  Most people in Germany either don’t care about or don’t like the EU.

Ms Merkel is running for the fourth time. She lost all of the previous TV debates against her three opponents. She’s a black hole of charisma with zero vision and is known for changing her position on the fly if the tide turns. Back in 2013 her closing remarks during said TV debate were: “Ladies and gentlemen, you know me, yada yada yada, and now I’m wishing you a nice evening.” 

Guess what, this year she managed to win her first debate! That’s all you need to know about the personality of Mr Schulz.

All in all, in this political climate I believe it’s extremely tough for the social democrats to compete. If they are pro-immigration, they basically sell out their base. People want growth and jobs and they answer with regulations. Every few weeks we witness terror attacks all over Europe and they’re weak on security.

And this problem is not just limited to Germany: In the US, Donald Trump wiped the floor with Hillary due to wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In the UK, Labour celebrated their result of 40 % despite losing the election. In the Netherlands, Labour fell from 25% to just 6 %. In France, Hollande didn’t even bother to run during the presidential election and the candidate for the socialists ended up with 6 % as well. In Austria, the SPÖ is going to be kicked out of the government, hovering around 25 %. Even in Sweden, a country that basically turned into a meme of lunatic left-wing politics, Unibet is projecting the social democrats around 25 % right now, down from 31 %.

I bet on under 25.5, 24 and 23.5. As of now, Unibet put the o/u at 22,5 with odds of 1,72 for the under, meaning betting on the under definitely lost value. According to my calculations the SPD should end up somewhere around 20,7 % with a strong possibility of even less. If they really have a poor last week of campaigning, they could even end up below 20 %. So it’s up to you if you think those odds are worth a bet.   

 

[WuDu]

Ok guys, that's been it for now, if you have questions let me know. If I have some time this week, I'll take a look at the o/u for the CDU, FDP and the Left. Unfortunately, it seems like the whole AFD is betting on themselves here at Unibet, so I don't see any value there. Coalitions look interesting, let's see if I find further value...😃 

[GotWhatItTakes]

🤣 🤣 🤣 

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@WuDu wrote:

Unfortunately, it seems like the whole AFD is betting on themselves here at Unibet, so I don't see any value there

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[BonusPater]

Great picks and analysis @WuDu!

 

[WuDu]

@GotWhatItTakes

Don't forget to vote on sunday. It's not so much about with whom Ms Merkel is governing us into the abyss for the next four years, there's much more at stake:

I need over 73.5 % turnout to win my bet!!!!!! :laugh: Every vote counts...

@testuser1

Cheeky meme! 😉 How good is your German? Have you done the wahl-o-mat yet?

www.wahl-o-mat.de

[BonusPater]

@WuDu, have to admit there were a couple of questions I didn't really understand. 

[Livertool]

I would love to do the query too but my german is restricted to lederhosen and i c h komme, i c h komme.... and those films i learned them wasn´t really about politics😏

[psrquack]

Hey @WuDu or other german members. I just watched a video about the compensation of Poland's losses during the WWII caused by Germany in where a journalist/humorist said that Poland should give back Stettin and the other former german cities if Germany will pay out the WWII losses what they caused to Poland. So is there any party in Germany who wants to bring that cities back? What is the parties opinion about the compensation pay for Poland?

[psrquack]

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@Livertool wrote:

I would love to do the query too but my german is restricted to lederhosen and i c h komme, i c h komme.... and those films i learned them wasn´t really about politics😏

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1, Yes, 2, no clue, 3, No,

1, Do you agree that the Army should operate within the state borders if a terrorist action happened?

2, Do you agree that owners of trucks with Diesel engine should pay more tax?

3, Do you agree that there should be a yearly maximum limit for asylium seekers?

4, Do you agree that the State should support the renewable enery sources with more money?

5, Do you agree that the State should build more social rented dwellings?

6,  Do you agree that the State should support with grants and loans the studies of the young people without the checking of their parents finacial situation?

7, Do you agree with more cameras in common spaces?

8, Do you agree that Germany should ease Greek's debt?

9, Do you agree with the speed limit in highways?

10, Do you agree with the raise of defense costs?

11, Do you agree that the providers should check their news and delete the fake ones?

12, Do you agree that that the State should give more funds to bio farms than the normal ones?

13, Do you agree that all families deserves the Child Benefit?

14, Do you agree that labour contracts should transfrom to fix-term end  without giving any reason?

15, Do you agree that all children should be vaccinate against infectious diseases?

16, Do you agree with the nationalisation of all banks?

17, Do you agree that massacre against the Judes during the WWII should be  still  the key point of the german history interpretation?

18, Do you agree that the surplus of the national budget should be turned to pay out the national debt?

19, Do you agree to limit the number of livestocks per farms?

20,  Do you want to prohibit the mining of brown-coal's in Germany?

21, Do you agree that firms should employ people via temporary employment agencies?

22, Do you agree that the children who were born and grew up in germany could keep their parents citizenship next to the german?

23, Do you agree that after 40 years in work people could retire without any other restriction?

24, This is about the form of the election (Do you agree that Germany should change the election system to National Währung)

25, Do you agree with the introduction of female quata in the stock market exits firm's supervisory board?

26, Do you agree with the more wealth more wealth tax concept?

27, Do you agree with the criminaliastion of children under 14?

28, Do you agree with the Obama-care?🤣(Ok, with the obligatory sickness insurance for all citizens)

29, Do you agree with more State projects against the right-extremists?

30, Do you agree that the inheritance of a house which

31, Do you agree with the prohibition of export of armaments products from Germany?

32, (Cannabis) Do you want to legalize it?

33, Do you agree that the tax called Solidaritätszuschlag (introduced in 1991 due to the costs of the german reunion) should be abolish in the end of 2019?

34, Do you agree if an asylium seeker is not cooperating with the authorities and refuses taking part in integrations courses could exclude from benefits?

35, Do you agree that primary schools should offer a day long nursery for their students?

36, Do you agree that the reference to God should stay in the constitution?

37, Do you agree with the introduction of basic income without any restriction?

38, Do you agree that the states of the EU should cooperate deeper?

 

[WuDu]

Wow, @psrquack is really putting the work in!  👍

The wahl-o-mat works this way. You get 38 questions and you answer "stimme z u" if you agree with the statement, "neutral" if you don't care about the question asked or have no idea about the topic or "stimme nicht z u" if you disagree with the statement.

So if the statement would be "Coke and hookers for everybody" and you agree, you'd vote "stimme z u". If you think "who's gonna pay for all that?" you'd vote "stimme nicht z u", and if you have no opinion you'd vote "neutral".

After you went through all 38 questions, you can then weigh for importance, choosing between 0 and 38 of those topics that are really important to you. You just tick the box with the question on the screen. If you're done weighting you click on "weiter".

Finally you have to choose the parties you want to compare your answers with. You can choose up to 8 parties. The ones reaching the parliament will be CDU/CSU, SPD, AFD, FDP, Die Grünen and Die Linke. Once you're done you click on "weiter". Finally you get your result.

OK, I went through the wahlomat and cleaned up @psrquack translation a little, you had a few mistakes in there which reversed the wording of the respective questions, however it's still impressive how much you got right as a non-native German speaker:

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1, Do you agree that the Army should operate within the state borders if a terrorist action happened?
2, Do you agree that Diesel fuel be taxed higher?
3, Do you agree that there should be a yearly maximum limit for asylum seekers?
4, Do you agree that the State should support renewable enery sources with more money?
5, Do you agree that the State should allocate more money to social housing?
6,  Do you agree that the State should support with grants and loans (called Bafög) the studies of the young people without the checking of their parents finacial situation?
7, Do you agree with more video surveillance in public?
8, Do you agree that Germany should ease Greek's debt?
9, Do you agree with the speed limit on highways?
10, Do you agree with the raise of defense costs?
11, Do you agree that internet providers should be forced to delete Fake News after being awared?
12, Do you agree that that the State should give more funds to bio farms than the normal ones?
13, Do you agree that child benefits should only go to German families.
14, Do you agree that labour contracts are still be allowed to be fixed-term/temporary without specific reason?
15, Do you agree that all children should be vaccinated against infectious diseases?
16, Do you agree with the nationalisation of all banks?
17, Do you agree that the holocaust during WWII should still be the key point of German history interpretation?
18, Do you agree that the surplus of the national budget should mostly be turned to pay off the national debt?
19, Do you agree to limit the number of livestocks per farms?
20,  Do you want to continue the mining of brown-coal in Germany?
21, Do you agree that firms should continue to employ temp workers?
22, Dual citizenship question. Do you agree that the children who were born and grew up in germany could keep their parents foreign citizenship next to the German?
23, Do you agree that after 40 years in work people could retire without any other restriction?
24, Currency question. Do you agree that Germany should ditch the Euro and go back back to the Deutsche Mark.
25, Do you agree with the elimination of female quota in stock market firm's supervisory board?
26, Do you agree with a wealth/property tax?
27, Do you agree that criminal kids under 14 should be punished in court?
28, Do you agree to make it MANDATORY for all citizens to HAVE TO sign up with a PUBLIC health insurance?
29, Do you agree with the continuation of state projects against right-extremists?
30, Do you agree that home ownership up until a certain value should be tax exempt?
31, Do you agree with the prohibition of export of armaments products from Germany?
32, Do you want to legalize the controlled sale of cannabis?
33, Do you agree that the tax called Solidaritätszuschlag (introduced in 1991 due to the costs of the german reunion) should be abolish in the end of 2019?
34, Do you agree that if an asylum seeker is not cooperating with the authorities and refuses taking part in integrations courses he could be excluded from benefits?
35, Do you agree that parents should have a legal right to all-day childcare up until age 10?
36, Do you agree that the reference to God should stay in the constitution?
37, Do you agree with the introduction of basic income without any restriction?
38, Do you agree that the states of the EU should cooperate deeper?

 

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[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

Hey @WuDu or other german members. I just watched a video about the compensation of Poland's losses during the WWII caused by Germany in where a journalist/humorist said that Poland should give back Stettin and the other former german cities if Germany will pay out the WWII losses what they caused to Poland. So is there any party in Germany who wants to bring that cities back? What is the parties opinion about the compensation pay for Poland?

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3 letters for that demand: L O L !

While I personally agree with some policies of the new Polish government, but this is a pipe dream that will never happen. But hey maybe the guys that came up with that plan could ask Mr Putin for compensation as well, let's see how that works...

I think Chancellor Brandt in the 70s made the O d e r-Neisse line the official border between Germany and Poland. I understand that the jouno you quoted wants to sell Polish cities for cash 🤣 but after pumping 2 trillion Euro into East Germany after the reunion in 1990, I'd say no thanks bro, we're good...

[Livertool]

I really did not want to do it but since @psrquack took time to translate it i had to.

Here is the results which i don´t understand but i think i´m quite right.... as in correct :d

[WuDu]

@Livertool

Check my post where I explained it step by step, you ended up one screen short! I guess the German "movies" you watched did not prepare you for that...😃

[psrquack]

@WuDu: thanks for the checking my translation, any correction are more than welcome.

The journalist didn't want any compensation from Putin, he wants the territories.:-)

Btw the lack of Schultz's education (no GCSE) is a mayor campaign subject or nobody cares about it?

[Livertool]

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@WuDu wrote:

@Livertool

Check my post where I explained it step by step, you ended up one screen short! I guess the German "movies" you watched did not prepare you for that...😃

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Ok, should have read your post more carefully :( 

No they didn´t, although there was this guy in one of them, who looked like a politician but i don´t think he was as he did so nasty things to his secretary :inlove: 

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

@WuDu: thanks for the checking my translation, any correction are more than welcome.

The journalist didn't want any compensation from Putin, he wants the territories.:-)

Btw the lack of Schultz's education (no GCSE) is a mayor campaign subject or nobody cares about it?

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No honestly, that's a tough topic to translate, especially if you do it from your 3rd language into your 2nd language. You did really well! What did you/do you study? 

Schulz has so many faults, this doesn't even come up anymore. I mean he didn't graduate school with the Abitur, meaning he wasn't allowed to study at university, to me that's pretty bad if you want to lead a country. However the SPD used to be the workers' party, so I guess the comrades over there don't care at all.

 

[KongHenrik]

I agree with you Mr Pater

[psrquack]

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@WuDu wrote:

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No honestly, that's a tough topic to translate, especially if you do it from your 3rd language into your 2nd language. You did really well! What did you/do you study? 

 

 

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Thanks again. I have learned german at primary school (another option was russian and it seems that would be a better choise because nowadays employers seeking for english speakers only and Russia is rising) and sociology at University.

Btw I read somewhere that Schultz wants another debatte because they were to many themes and a lack of time. What do you think the (possible) second debatte could help for him?

[WuDu]

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@psrquack wrote:

 

Thanks again. I have learned german at primary school (another option was russian and it seems that would be a better choise because nowadays employers seeking for english speakers only and Russia is rising) and sociology at University.

Btw I read somewhere that Schultz wants another debatte because they were to many themes and a lack of time. What do you think the (possible) second debatte could help for him?

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Schulz wants a lot of things, it's all show to appear strong! He knows Merkel won't do it, so he has nothing to lose. He also called out Lord Trump and Mr Erdogan before, they didn't care that much either. It's like Andrew Golota calling out prime Lennox Lewis...

I watched all three debates of Trump vs Hillary at night, I watched LePen vs Macron with German translation, I watched the small party leaders in Germany go at it, I didn't watch Merkel vs Schulz.  I played poker here at Unibet.

It went exactly like I thought and I only checked the highlights. My point is, there's no race between CDU/CSU and the SPD. Since 2005, the SPD is in a downward spiral and especially this year, no one wanted to become the candidate for chancellor. Next man up would have been Sigmar Gabriel as he was the SPD leader, but he didn't want to run and rather took on the job as foreign minister when they "promoted" 🤣 Steinmeier from foreign minister to President after calling God Emperor Trump a "hate preacher" during the summer of 2016. :laugh:

With Schulz they found an idiot to do the job and to save face while getting their butt kicked, similar to when the Republicans ran McCain in 08 against Barry Obama and similar to whoever the democrats will prop up to lose to Donald Trump in 2020.

 

[WuDu]

@testuser1

After suffering through S04-FCB, maybe you'd like to re-do the wahlomat with @psrquack 's and my translation. Seems to me you clicked a lot of neutral with those NPD freaks just 20 something %-points behind your top choice.

I did mine as well, seems accurate:

 

 

 

 

[WuDu]

Hi guys,

Let's give you a quick update:

After going through the odds I decided to not place another bet on the election. The SPD is currently at 22,5-o2,00-u1,72 and I still believe this represents some solid value betting on the under here. You won't get much profit and maybe you have to sweat it out a little but in the end, this should work. Most of the polls already have the SPD at 22 and under. I have them at 20,7% with a downward tendency.

The AFD stands at 10,5-o1,33-u3,00. So there is absolutely no value to be had. Yes, the AFD will be the party with the most gains and if everything goes optimal, I think they could approach 15 %, however even a result of 12 % would be great. It also depends on the strength of the FDP and the Left. If these two parties outperform expectations and voters are scared to vote AFD this time around, the AFD could be in trouble making the over here. Over the past 8 state elections they received 11,57 % of all the votes, so I don't see any value here.

CDU/CSU is at 36,5-o1,9-u1,8. Honestly, I have no clue how they will perform. They're going to lose voters, that's for sure but how many, I don't know. I can also imagine a lot of (old) people voting for Ms Merkel because they're scared of change. Heck it wouldn't be the first time in our history that we voted for someone we shouldn't have voted for...😛  :wow: :scared:

The Greens at 7,5-o2,10-u1,65 are a really special case. They're complete nutjobs and they won't get many votes outside their hardcore fanbase. That hardcore base hovers around 4-6 % but in addition to that they enjoy stronger support in the big cities (where most of the other loonies are living) like Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne and in Baden-Württemberg. Honestly, maybe the over represents value here, but I just don't see it, so there's no way in hell that I'm betting on or even recommending that.

The Left at 9,5-o1,90-u1,80 is really interesting but too tough for me to decide. Over the past 8 state elections, they increased the number of votes from 1 M to 1.3 M. They will take votes from the SPD as well. The INSA-poll currently has them at 11 %. The problem I see here is that the Left is getting most of its support in East Germany. In 2013 they received 22,7 % in East Germany, however East Germany is also AFD territory and I fully expect the AFD to finish with 20+ % over there. Since a lot of East Germans voted for the Left out of protest, I'm also expecting the Left to lose voters to the AFD!

Despite winning votes over the past 8 state elections, the Left lost votes in two of those state elections that took place in East Germany. In Sachsen-Anhalt they went from 235 K to 183 K and in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern they went from 125 K to 106 K, despite a higher voter turnout. The AFD had their best results in those two states with 24 and 20,8 %. All in all, I don't like those opposing tendencies, so I'd stay away.

The final party is the FDP standing at 9,5-o1,75-u1,95. No value here as well, The question is how many disappointed conservatives and former non-voters choose the FDP instead of the AFD. The FDP has a bad political reputation in Germany, there's a reason why they lost 9,8 %-points in 2013 and were kicked out of the parliament: They're bascially show-offs being most interested in themselves. I think the O/U is on point here, so nothing of value to be had.

 

 

 

[WuDu]

All the major German polling institutes are now starting to adjust their projections to keep an ounce of credibility, unlike fake news pollster 538 in the US. 🤣 What we're seeing now is that all of the 7 major institutes see the SPD between 20 and 22 %. Like I said before, Unibet still offers 1,72 for under 22.5.

If you're interested in politics, turn on the TV on Sunday at 18.00 CET and you'll see an earthquake: The AFD will gain the most votes and be the grand winner of the election and we'll finally have a political opposition again in Germany. The Fake News media will ask themselves: "How did we not see that coming?" 🤣 Well, I know why...

The SPD will be shattered, left in utter shock and disbelief either because they finish with the worst result ever or because they finish with the worst result ever and fall below 20 %, maybe leading the AFD by mere 5 or 6 %. Mr Schulz, in his concession speech, will try to appear tough and combatively, but no one, in his party, including himself, is going to care. Maybe he'll tear up a little...

The CDU will also lose a lot of support but the state media will try to prop up Ms Merkel as the winner of the election despite her coalition losing 10+ %. When asked with whom she will form the next government, SPD or Greens+FDP, she'll give her typical non-answer of taking a wait and see approach and needing to talk to all parties involved over the next few days and that all democrats should be able to work together, but on Sunday she wants to celebrate a little first after a tough campaign. Knowing very well, that she'll end up with the SPD again...

Win, lose or draw, I check back on Sunday to analyze the (betting)-results and I'm guessing the community response will either beanigif_enhanced-buzz-3959-1338313489-4

or

 

giphy

 

 

 

 

     

[WuDu]

1296870506_randymarshjizz

 SPD under is cashing in like expected, but I haven't heard anything about the voter turnout yet. However it was pretty busy when I voted.