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UFC 209 PICS:

Obviously not as anticipated as we expected with Khahib nurmagademov's last minute withdraw from action but still an ok PPV.  But I'm not here to lament on the matchups fans wanted to see.  I'm here to post the right betting pics to earn us some $.   Log on to Unibet and tail these winning pics and thank me later :)

 

Rashad Evans vs. Daniel Kelly-  Evans via Unaminous Decision at +275

This fight could hold some surprises as Rashad is dropping a weight class to 185 and had a long lay off due to injury and is past his prime/mid 30's.  All bodes poorly for him except that his opponent is a little older and unlike Rashad was never really successful in the past.  Kelly has near no atheletic ability and has won fights that he should have no business winning... even against lessor known adversaries.

I expect Rashad to play this safe and be content with the Decsion and not take many risks as he's a somewhat cautious fighter by nature.  Another aspect that I like is Kelly... like most fighters unblessed with no talent or atheletic prowless is blessed with a face that only a Mother can love and a chin of granite and a toughness that won't want to quit.  All held the UD bet at good odds.

 

Alistair Overreem vs. Mark Hunt-  Overreem vis Unaminous Decision +450

At this price this is the pic of the card.  Could Hunt get  KO win... sure he can and will likely do that a little over half the time.  Could Overeem KO Hunt... sure he could and would likely do it 1 in 4 fights.  But we betters who look for the best value on probability of outcome.  And this is the right bet and here's why.

Overeem since been caught for Juice and new PED testing has been forced to give up his I'm going to wreck you style of fighting.  Without the juice his chin has faded and most importantly his stamina is garbage.  Therefore he has adapted into what I refer to as "Econo-Reem".  This translates to a fighter who fights at a distance and tries to point fight his opponent and not use to much energy.  It works because he hits hard and many fighters don't want to engage with him.  3 rounds is all he has to run for to outpoint Hunt and at these odds it's a good pic. 

Notable reasons why this might be the outcome:

Hunt has a great chin and won't be KO'd easily.

Reem has no illusions that hsi chin will stand up to Hunt's so has no option other than to fight at a long distance.

Hunt might mentally accept losing a decision as he's older and wins and losses become less important as you age... provide you do your job in the cage.

 

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Well I came up a few minutes short on the Overeem vs. Hunt fight as Overeem was on a clear decision victory until he did the near unthinkable which was KOing Hunt with a horrific knee.  The bet was still good imo as fights don't often end in the final round and at those odds I'd take it any day.

The Evans vs. Kelly fight was close to what I expected as Kelly didn't fade... but unfortunately he was the one who got the well earned split decision victory.... obviously Rashad has faded more than expected... but I don't hate my bet at the odds posted.

 

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  • 7 months later...

Due to the huge card tonight I thought I'd add some pics that offer good value through Unibet.

Jorge "Gamebread" (love that name) Masvidal over Stephen "Wonderboy Thompson should be a beauty tonight.  The value is pretty thin... but I do like the prop on Unibet for Masvidal to beat Thompson at an astonishing +1800.  Due to their styles I can foresee Masvidal being able to break Thompson as Matt Brown once did a few years back.  At this price it's worth considering.

I like Joanna Jejeck..... (can't spell it lol) to absolutely destroy Rose Namajones via a a standup beating that will get worse and worse as the fight progresses.  The Unibet pick that stands out for me is JJ to win in either rd3-4 of this 5 round affair at the good odds of +700.  I expect Rose to be able to perhaps hold her own in the first round and lose the second and become frustrated in rd 3-4 which will lead to her downfall. 

In the Main Event I would either pick (or pick both) GSP to win via decision or Michael Bisping to with in rd 3-4 at great odds of +950.  GSP does get bruised and by this time in the fight a cut or eye swelling could cause a ref stoppage.  Bisping has the perfect style of "light punching" but steadily to accomplish this.  As a Canadian it pains me to make this bet.... but damn those odds baby. 

Enjoy the card and try live betting it as it's a lot of fun.

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Didn't win any of the pics but was happy with my Bisping beating GSP in rd3-4.  GSP was a bloody mess and was tired.  A few more shots could have opened his numerous cuts enough for a doctors stoppage... but as we saw GSP landed a bomb and went all out for the finish knowing that he was tired and had to get the job done.  Well done by him.

I said Rose was going to hold her own in r1 and she did just that but unfortunately did far more with a devastating KO of the longtime champ JJ.

Masvidal couldn't close the distance at all in the fight and didn't land enough damage to wear down Wonderboy and because of that Wonderboy drifted to a decision win.

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betting on mma is difficult even if you know the game for a long time...i mean i dont think i miss one ufc fight on any card last 10 years beside maybe the prelims yet im down a bunch betting on mma ! i try every tricks every path possible to make some profit,like solid single ,low odds multiple,high odd mutiple...all sort of high and low variance bet ...even betting live after seen a thousand fights you can kind of feel when the momentum is about to shift...but the booki do too and they have a certain amount of seconds on you...so they just close all the betting even before and any sign of momemtum shift ! yet im like 3 and 50 my last 50 bets...and betting on let's say's 2 top 10 fighters in the ufc ...even top 5 the edge is so slim ,as they say is't a inch game at the highest level!

one tricky thing is the sub and tko...if your winning fighter decide to finish the villain by RNC out when hes not fully conscious ,ist a sub ...sometimes they tap to strike and ist a ko tko dq

my best bet's so far was small multiple 2,3 winner plus a winning rounds or sub...

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@pittpitt lol so true what you say and it can make the sport really frustrating to bet on.  Live betting is sometimes best done in between rounds so the the odds stay relatively static.  Your other point for prop betting can be frustrating because if one fighter is nearly done it leaves the choice to the victor on how he wants to do the finish so a TKO could easily turn into a sub.  One thing I like about Unibet is they include DQ as part of TKO.  1 fight ended last week via DQ and another one almost did as well.  It doesn't occur often but it helps the betters.

 

 

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well personaly i like to squeeze much edge i can specialy when betting on sports,you have to beat the market..inssurance could be a must imo when live betting on mma they cut the betting quick!

i have profund respect for unibet products in general (beside the gargantuous fk up with my cashout,witch couldnt be ignored) is't not by mistake they are thriving under the radar...true genius

if you have any good read on some fights...please share :)

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A pretty lean card in terms of value for tonight FN but there are a couple spots that I really like.

Dustin Porier to beat Anthony Showtime Pettis in Rd 3,  Rd 4 and Rd 5 have tremendous value in terms of offering the best odds of any site.  The odds are ranging from +1400 for a Rd 3 finish all the way to +3300 for a Rd 5 finish.  These bets are quite live imo as Dustin is a slow starter and will have to be carefuly about Pettis in R1.

Pettis could get the early finish but if not I see him fading as his career has gone down the toilet since proper PED testing has been put in place and fatigue has set in on him a few times in the past.

 

Matt Brown wins in RD1 vs. Diego Sanchez has value at +175.  Matt "the immortal" Brown has been my favourite fighter of all time for his preseverance and his come forward mentallity.  Never a boring fight with him in it... The same can sort of be said for his opponent Diego Sanchez but the fact is his career is essentially done.  Brown has said that win or lose he's retiring and the UFC has obliged him by giving him a sendoff with Diego Sanchez as the proverbial lamb to be slaughtered.  Brown's chin is finally catching up to him but Diego hasn't had a finish in 9 years and don't think he has the pop to get the lucky punch nor the ground prowless to get the sub on Brown.  Brown without fearing a quick lucky shot should have no problems running through Diego and literally mauling him with knees and elbows up against the fence for dominant RD1 TKO due to a plethora of strikes.

Enjoy the fights all. 

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Well I obv. f'd up the Lauzon bet as Guida got his 1st KO in his 25 fight tenure... but lets move along to more happier pastures.

 

Matt "the immotal" Brown destroyed Diego Sanchez with a devastating elbow in Rd1 (just as I predicted :)) which received him the KO and undoubtedly the 50k performance of the night bonus.  At +175 on Unibet this was a great offering as Sanchez didn't want to scrap it out and went for the wrestling approach... but despite that he was doomed.  If you're a fight fan you should def. check out the finish.

 

Next on the betting card it was Dustin Porier vs. Anthony Showtime Pettis.  This fight went nearly as exactly as I expected except the bet of Pettis winning rd1 was a mistake... but the principle bet of Porier winning in R3,4,5 was spot on the money so to speak as he won via sub in r3 at +1450 odds.  Lets face it... u only have to be right once in 14.5 to make it worth it.   It was a freak injury but the fight would have ended within the distance regardless as Pettis looked like a Mack Truck hit him and it was only a matter of time.  Watching the fight I was actually hoping it continued as the odds on Unibet got even better for R4 and R5... but I'll take the nice prop win gladly.

 

With more time on my hands I will give pre fight analysis for each card so please tune in next Saturday for my value pics 5 hours pre card.

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nice read..right on Q brown & poirier...wonderfull

diego had is share of war and wasnt going to give brown an inch...he was driving for that takedown like lol unfortunatly 2 inch later it was over lol

i missed your pick last week end coze i dont gamble on here these days but  due to your very good pickin...i will keep an eye on it next cards :)

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Not going to watch this card as none of the matchups really stand out.

Think there's some value on betting Nick Lentz over Will Brooks (decision either way is the likely outcome). 

Could be some value on Daniel Kelly to win a toughly fought 3 rounds over Elias Theodoro.  Kelly will come back in this fight at some point after conceding the 1st round but 3 rounds might not be enough time.  Live betting this fight on Unibet is where the real value is imo.  After rd1 Theodoro's odds will make him an even bigger favourite... but if you see any sign of fatigue on his part then put a bet on Kelly as he's tough as nails and enjoys the wars.  Odds could go as high a +500.  If it gets over +425 after rd1 then it's a decent bet as Kelly should have the edge in r3.

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Nik Lentz proved won the fight vs. Will Brooks in r2 on a fortunate submission as he was losing... but at +300 and change it was a good bet indeed as Brooks seems to just find ways to lose in the UFC.  Amazingly he was an absolute beast in Bellator.

Kelly for Rd3 was a great bet at +2200 as he nearly got the submission win.  The fight was much closer than the scorecards.  A good bet imo as he was a 50/50 to finish that rear naked choke.

On the whole there wasn't too much value on the card and nearly all fights went to the decision without too much major shocks.

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  • 1 month later...

Been a while but would like to put forth a couple of predictions for UFC 219 this evening.

In the Main Event you have a born killer in Cyborg vs. an accomplished range fighter in Holly Holm.  Both ladies have a lot of experience and it looks to me like either Cyborg will destroy Holm in R1 or R2 with her blistering punches where Holm could land success in the latter part of the 5 round affair. 

Therefore I like the tremendous odds of +2000 offered by Unibet on Holly Holm winning in r3 or r4.  Cyborg could easily tire if she doesn't get the early finish and Holm could get the job done as she did against Ronda Rousey with a Head Kick for the KO over a tired Cyborg.  Of course she has to endure the early punishment... but at these odds I think it's good value.

I also like a straight up bet on Condit to beat Neil Magny.  This fight will either be a KO victory for Condit or either fighter will win the decision.  Condit has had a lot of time off and is starting to age... who knows whether his motivation will still be with him.  Magny fights the exact same everytime and that is to his career downfall/shortcomings.  I believe the odds are -150 on Condit and I think that's good value as Condit of just 2 years ago would be a -400 easily.  I have no idea if the time off has hurt his skills or not... time will tell.

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Ugh on Condit as Magny got the well earned decision.  (Magny has no KO power and no sub game) so a decision was his only path.  Condit looked ok in patches but his take down defense is still weak and in hindsight Magny was a very tough match up for him styalistically.

No luck with the Cyborg fight either as won via decision.  Holm had a few moments but the pace was set by Cyborg and she won 4 of the 5 rounds comfortably in this stand up affair.

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  • 3 weeks later...

UFC 220 is upon us tomorrow night and with the HW and LHW belts on the line it's sure to be an exciting card.

So far I have only a few pics but will add some after reviewing the weigh ins today and after monitoring where the sharps money has gone.

Dustin Ortiz to win at +110 over Alexandre Petajo looks to be a good pic.  Ortiz is a proven staple on the UFC roster with lots of dominant decision wins in his career.  His last outing netted him a R1 KO so that adds to his methods of victory.  Petajo is actually the favourite but in a close clinching style fight that Ortiz often creates the betting should be on the proven veteran.

Daniel Cormier (LHW Champion) vs a relativerly unheralded Volkan Oezdemir is a relatively easy match up to bet on.  Option A Oezdemir lands a good combo in Rd1 and KO's Cormier or option to Cormier utilizes his Olympic caliber wrestling to wet blanket Oezdemir and get the finish via Submission (it will be a rear naked choke) or pounds out the TKO is Oezdemir refuses to flip onto his back and elects to get pounded out. 

Imo these are the only outcomes to occur... the first one of Oezdemir getting the KO in R1 is a longshot but not as long as the great odds that Unibet provides of +1100.  Def. some value there as this outcome should occur about 1 in 8 imo.  But please hedge that bet with Cormier winning in R2-3-4 at odds of +350 going all the way up to +1000 for a round 4 stoppage.  The odds for these aren't as good as they were but these are much better than a 50-50 proposition combined so therefore it's got good value.

HW's Stipic Miocic (Champion) vs Francis Ngannou (a huge undefeated challenger and the favourite) is going to be fast... who wins I'm not quite sure but that's why we have odds to ensure profits regardless of whom wins.  If the fight were to end in r1 (it will be a KO) I'd say that Ngannou wins 7 out of 10 but if the fight were to go to round 2 and any subsequent rounds then the fight should lean towards the more experienced and better cardio of Miocic.  Therefore bet Miocic in Rd 2 at +900 and Miocic in Rd 3-4 at +850.  I'd hedge that bet with a bigger bet on Ngannou winning in Rd1 KO at about even odds and I'd take him winning via KO in R2 at +550 as Miocic may try to run in Rd1 in the hopes of tiring the bigger man out.  I would also consider taking a tiny bet on Miocic to win in rd3 or rd4 via submission at +6600 and +10000.  Long odds but if Miocic can tire the big man out he may elect to go for an easy late round takedown and sub an exhausted Ngannou.

More bets to come tommorow and enjoy the fights. 

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All 3 fights went just as expected.  Ortiz got the Unaminous decision in a hard fought battle.

Oezmedir had the punchers chance in Rd1 as expected but DC got the TKO finish in rd2.  Oezmedir elected to stay on his back and not flip over so the punches got the job done.

In the HW affair Nagannou had a punchers chance in RD1 but gassed and the prop bet for a sub in rd3/4 was excellent as Miocic could have gotten the finish at any time but I believe this is a case of a fix.  Miocic probably bet on himself winning a UD and when you have the fight in the bag against an exhausted opponent you can dictate how it will end.  But in a fair fight where most fighters go for the finish as they're instructed the bets were very solid and would have cashed.

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