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Keyser's NHL 16/17


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@Keyser wrote:


@9 units Goalscorer Sid Crosby @1.95 IN

@9 units wincast Pens+Crosby @2.55 IN

@5 units Goals Pens o3.5 @3.25 IN

7 units Playerpoints Crosby o1.5@1.95 OUT


@4 units Goalscorer Pacioretty @2.95 OUT

@2 units Goalscorer Byron @4.90 IN

A good opening. 4/6 bets in. 36 units bet, and 66.55 units returned for a profit of 30.55 units.

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Maple Leafs-Sharks

6 units Sharks @2.45


8 units Hurricanes @1.95

I noticed there was a typo in the opening post. Sorry about that, but the odds should've steered people on the right track. Should be Penso4.5@3.25, although I personally bet on both Pens o3.5 and Pens o4.5--among other things on that match.

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@Keyser wrote:

Maple Leafs-Sharks

@6 units Sharks @2.45 OUT


@8 units Hurricanes @1.95 IN

15.6 units back on 14 units bet for a profit of 1.6 units.


50 units bet on 8 picks

82.15 units collected from 5 correct ones

+32.15 units

Sharks won on Penalties, so should probably have stuck with ML on that one....

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@mirc wrote:

You are risking plenty of units.I am betting mostly on ML with 1 unit or 2.5g for a team but NHL is so unpredictable.What are your % for winnin overall or longterm?

I risk a lot more than these units, because I only post the bets that Unibet have competetive odds on (and I hate that bets on player points and goalscorers aren't including OT at unibet). I haven't long time % to show to, because I've been using the early season to gatter a feel for the teams this season and only been betting NHL hard the past two weeks--after I hadf established a base.

What I can tell you is that I've got my last 7 max-bets correct at FT or ML-bets--for an average odds of just above 2.00 (I usually bet FT rather than ML, because I feel most teams lose too much value if you pick em ML--but there are a handful of exceptions...). I also have my 5 last max-bets at player-point correct--for an average of around 1.95. @(In other words; I'm running hot, so it might be worth your while to take a stab at Monahan-point @1.85 tonight....)

For the smaller staked units (1 unit bets-7 unit bets) I only hope to average a 5% ROI or something like that, but they hopefully adds to even out variance, and keep me on the toes for finding those max-bets. I make no guarantees, but keep an eye with this thread, and maybe you'll get an answer from my results before the end of the season.

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@Keyser wrote:


@9 units Sean Monahan point @1.85 IN

@2 units Wincast Monahan+Flames @6.00 OUT

@3 units Johnny Gaudreau o1.5 points @3.35 OUT

@2 units Goalscorer Dougie Hamilton @5.80 OUT

7 units Flames@2.30 OUT


@6 units Crosby goal @2.17 OUT


7 units Flyers@2.35 IN

2 units goalscorer Voracek@3.45 OUT


2 units goalscorer Couture@4 OUT

2 units goalscorer Burns@4 IN

5 units Sharks@2.45 OUT

Much like yesterday, Sharks settled for the ML-win. Anyhow. The big one with Monahan correct again, but a net loss for the night. 45 units bet and a 41.3 return for a slight loss of 3.7 units.


95 units bet on 19 picks

123.45 units collected from 8 correct ones

+28.45 units

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@psrquack wrote:

How do you make the predictions of the goalscorers? Compare the form, the status in the team (first line, PP member, frenchise player), the goals/games, the injuries, the team form or how?

Match-up, form, anticipation of number goals scored by team, general scorer/points-stats for player compared to their current form, changes in line-ups, anticipated numbers of PP-plays in comparison with opponents PK and tendencies and so on and so forth.

I watch quite a few games, so also consider my own estimation of how likely their are to get goal-scoring opportunities against this and that kind of defence, how well their stats reflect their play, and pay especially close attention to PP-efficiency in setting up in opponents zone, team ability to move around the puck, and whether or not they like to go big from blue line looking for deflection, or whether they like to make plays for their offensive players around the box... just to mention a few things.

At the end of the day I got a number in my head about where the odds should be in my estimation, and when offered better I consider how valuable it is to adjust my betting size according to value.

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@Keyser wrote:


@4 units Ducks @2.70 IN

8 units Perry point@1.72 OUT

6 units Marchand point@1.60 IN

4 units Goalscorer Pastrnak@2.85 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Marchand@3.40 OUT

7 units Goalscorer Rakell@3.35 IN

3 units Goalscorer Perry@3.15 OUT

2 units Goalscorer Kesler@4.10 OUT

2 units 2points Perry@3.85 OUT

2 units 2points Getzlaf@3.85 OUT


3 units Goalscorer Anisimov@3.90 IN

3 units Goalscorer Panarin@3.35 IN

2 units Goalscorer Hossa@4.25 IN


3 units Goalscorer Matthews@2.80 IN

3 units Goalscorer van Riemsdyk@3.00 OUT

Good Leafs-result and some great Blackhawks-return helpeds my more below average Ducks bets along. For a total of 55 units bet, I got a return of 82.5 units for a 27.5 units profit. Perry involvements had 3 shots in the post, denying him a point despite Ducks scoring four goals, including a couple of them that also would have handed Getzlaf his second point. Not a great day, and still a very healthy profit.


150 units bet on 34 picks

205.95 units collected from 15 correct ones

+55.95 units

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Flames-Blue Jackets

5 units Monahan point@1.85
4 units Atkinson point@1.67
3 units Goalscorer Atkinson@3.25
3 units Goalscorer Foligno@3.95
5 units Gaudreau point@1.65
2 units Gaudreau 2points@3.35
3 units Goalscorer Gaudreau@3.00
3 units Goalscorer Monahan@3.45
5 units Blue Jackets@2.33
2 units Goalscorer Werenski@6.10


3 units Goalscorer Sheary@3.55


2 units Eichel  2points@3.20
6 units Sabres@2.10
4 units o5.5 goals@2.10
2 units o7.5 goals@5.40

Added Goalscorer-bets @ Werenski and Gaudreau...

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@Keyser wrote:


8 units Pens@1.92 OUT

3 units Pens-1.5@2.60 OUT

1 unit Pens-2.5@4.35 OUT

7 units Goalscorer Crosby@2.15 OUT

2 units Wincast Crosby+Pens@3.35 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Schultz@8.00 OUT

4 units o5.5 goals@1.98 OUT

1 unit o7.5 goals@4.8 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Sheary@3.55 OUT


5 units MacKinnon point@1.80 IN

3 units Goalscorer MacKinnon@3.60 OUT

Flames-Blue Jackets

5 units Monahan point@1.85 IN

4 units Atkinson point@1.67 IN

3 units Goalscorer Atkinson@3.25 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Foligno@3.95 OUT

5 units Gaudreau point@1.65 IN

2 units Gaudreau 2points@3.35 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Gaudreau@3.00 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Monahan@3.45 IN

5 units Blue Jackets@2.33 IN

2 units Goalscorer Werenski@6.10 OUT


2 units Eichel  2points@3.20 OUT

6 units Sabres@2.10 OUT

4 units o5.5 goals@2.10 OUT

2 units o7.5 goals@5.40 OUT

An all around horrible night that bottomed out when Werenski's goal was taken away and ruled a Gagner one. CBJ continues their amazing run, and can still be trusted to deliver night in and night out--unlike the likes of Penguins... Pens with 39 shots on Budaj against Kings 28 shots on goal, but sadly they were exactly that; shots on Budaj rather than shots on goal, as Budaj shut them out for a 1-0 win in overtime. Very dissapointing performance by the Stanley Cup winners. 88 units bet and only 55.18 returned for a loss of 32.82 units.


238 units bet on 59 picks

261.13 units collected from 21 correct ones

+ 23.13 units

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Canucks-Blue Jackets

1 unit Blue Jackets@2.05 ( makes it a 10 unit maxbet in total--with the afforementioned 9 units @2.08.. )
3 units Goalscorer Gagner@4.00
3 units Goalscorer Foligno@3.85
5 units Foligno point@1.80

As usual, if anyone offer you an Atkinson Goalscorer bet @3.50 or better you should definitely be alert for that as well, and I think Werenski-point @2.10 or better also offer great value.

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@Keyser wrote:

Canucks-Blue Jackets

9 units Blue Jackets@2.08 OUT

1 unit Blue Jackets@2.05 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Gagner@4.00 OUT

3 units Goalscorer Foligno@3.85 OUT

5 units Foligno point@1.80 IN

As usual, if anyone offer you an @Atkinson Goalscorer bet @3.50 or better you should definitely be alert for that as well, and I think @Werenski-point @2.10 or better also offer great value.

Atkinson scored and Werenski collected point, but Blue Jackets gave away a 2-0 lead at 2nd intermission and a 3-2 lead with only 1.09 to go, only to win it in OT still.... Didn't do me much good, though... 21 units bet and only a measily 9 units returned gives a 12 unit loss. The worst thing is that both the 2-2 equalizer and the 3-3 equalizer are of the lucky variety, and the latter the kind Blue Jackets normally doesn't let in as they usually take out the middle. Murray on the ice rather than Werenski proved costly.


261 units bet on 63 picks

270.13 units collected from 22 correct ones

+9.13 units

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