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Keyser's NHL 16/17

Keyser

By Keyser
in Betting and Sports

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Keyser

Keyser

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@Keyser wrote:

Penguins-Coyotes

@9 units Goalscorer Sid Crosby @1.95 IN

@9 units wincast Pens+Crosby @2.55 IN

@5 units Goals Pens o3.5 @3.25 IN

7 units Playerpoints Crosby [email protected] OUT

Canadiens-Bruins

@4 units Goalscorer Pacioretty @2.95 OUT

@2 units Goalscorer Byron @4.90 IN

A good opening. 4/6 bets in. 36 units bet, and 66.55 units returned for a profit of 30.55 units.

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

Posted
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Maple Leafs-Sharks

6 units Sharks @2.45

Hurricanes-Canucks

8 units Hurricanes @1.95

I noticed there was a typo in the opening post. Sorry about that, but the odds should've steered people on the right track. Should be [email protected], although I personally bet on both Pens o3.5 and Pens o4.5--among other things on that match.

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

Posted
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@Keyser wrote:

Maple Leafs-Sharks

@6 units Sharks @2.45 OUT

Hurricanes-Canucks

@8 units Hurricanes @1.95 IN

15.6 units back on 14 units bet for a profit of 1.6 units.

Total:

50 units bet on 8 picks

82.15 units collected from 5 correct ones

+32.15 units

Sharks won on Penalties, so should probably have stuck with ML on that one....

British Open 2016 Champion
mirc

mirc

Posted
Posted

You are risking plenty of units.I am betting mostly on ML with 1 unit or 2.5g for a team but NHL is so unpredictable.What are your % for winnin overall or longterm?

Keyser

Keyser

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@mirc wrote:

You are risking plenty of units.I am betting mostly on ML with 1 unit or 2.5g for a team but NHL is so unpredictable.What are your % for winnin overall or longterm?

I risk a lot more than these units, because I only post the bets that Unibet have competetive odds on (and I hate that bets on player points and goalscorers aren't including OT at unibet). I haven't long time % to show to, because I've been using the early season to gatter a feel for the teams this season and only been betting NHL hard the past two weeks--after I hadf established a base.

What I can tell you is that I've got my last 7 max-bets correct at FT or ML-bets--for an average odds of just above 2.00 (I usually bet FT rather than ML, because I feel most teams lose too much value if you pick em ML--but there are a handful of exceptions...). I also have my 5 last max-bets at player-point correct--for an average of around 1.95. @(In other words; I'm running hot, so it might be worth your while to take a stab at Monahan-point @1.85 tonight....)

For the smaller staked units (1 unit bets-7 unit bets) I only hope to average a 5% ROI or something like that, but they hopefully adds to even out variance, and keep me on the toes for finding those max-bets. I make no guarantees, but keep an eye with this thread, and maybe you'll get an answer from my results before the end of the season.

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

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@Keyser wrote:

Flames-Lightning

@9 units Sean Monahan point @1.85 IN

@2 units Wincast Monahan+Flames @6.00 OUT

@3 units Johnny Gaudreau o1.5 points @3.35 OUT

@2 units Goalscorer Dougie Hamilton @5.80 OUT

7 units [email protected] OUT

Penguins-Bruins

@6 units Crosby goal @2.17 OUT

Avalanche-Flyers

7 units [email protected] IN

2 units goalscorer [email protected] OUT

Senators-Sharks

2 units goalscorer Couture@4 OUT

2 units goalscorer Burns@4 IN

5 units [email protected] OUT

Much like yesterday, Sharks settled for the ML-win. Anyhow. The big one with Monahan correct again, but a net loss for the night. 45 units bet and a 41.3 return for a slight loss of 3.7 units.

Total:

95 units bet on 19 picks

123.45 units collected from 8 correct ones

+28.45 units

British Open 2016 Champion
psrquack Rank 34

psrquack

Posted
Posted

How do you make the predictions of the goalscorers? Compare the form, the status in the team (first line, PP member, frenchise player), the goals/games, the injuries, the team form or how?

Keyser

Keyser

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@psrquack wrote:

How do you make the predictions of the goalscorers? Compare the form, the status in the team (first line, PP member, frenchise player), the goals/games, the injuries, the team form or how?

Match-up, form, anticipation of number goals scored by team, general scorer/points-stats for player compared to their current form, changes in line-ups, anticipated numbers of PP-plays in comparison with opponents PK and tendencies and so on and so forth.

I watch quite a few games, so also consider my own estimation of how likely their are to get goal-scoring opportunities against this and that kind of defence, how well their stats reflect their play, and pay especially close attention to PP-efficiency in setting up in opponents zone, team ability to move around the puck, and whether or not they like to go big from blue line looking for deflection, or whether they like to make plays for their offensive players around the box... just to mention a few things.

At the end of the day I got a number in my head about where the odds should be in my estimation, and when offered better I consider how valuable it is to adjust my betting size according to value.

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

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@Keyser wrote:

Bruins-Ducks

@4 units Ducks @2.70 IN

8 units Perry [email protected] OUT

6 units Marchand [email protected] IN

4 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

7 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

2 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

2 units 2points [email protected] OUT

2 units 2points [email protected] OUT

Islanders-Blackhawks

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

2 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

Leafs-Coyotes

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

3 units Goalscorer van [email protected] OUT

Good Leafs-result and some great Blackhawks-return helpeds my more below average Ducks bets along. For a total of 55 units bet, I got a return of 82.5 units for a 27.5 units profit. Perry involvements had 3 shots in the post, denying him a point despite Ducks scoring four goals, including a couple of them that also would have handed Getzlaf his second point. Not a great day, and still a very healthy profit.

Total:

150 units bet on 34 picks

205.95 units collected from 15 correct ones

+55.95 units

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

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Flames-Blue Jackets

5 units Monahan [email protected]
4 units Atkinson [email protected]
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
5 units Gaudreau [email protected]
2 units Gaudreau [email protected]
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
5 units Blue [email protected]
2 units Goalscorer [email protected]

Pens-Kings

3 units Goalscorer [email protected]

Sabres-Islanders

2 units Eichel  [email protected]
6 units [email protected]
4 units o5.5 [email protected]
2 units o7.5 [email protected]

Added Goalscorer-bets @ Werenski and Gaudreau...

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

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Posted
@Keyser wrote:

Pens-Kings

8 units [email protected] OUT

3 units [email protected] OUT

1 unit [email protected] OUT

7 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

2 units Wincast [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

4 units o5.5 [email protected] OUT

1 unit o7.5 [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

Avs-Panthers

5 units MacKinnon [email protected] IN

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

Flames-Blue Jackets

5 units Monahan [email protected] IN

4 units Atkinson [email protected] IN

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

5 units Gaudreau [email protected] IN

2 units Gaudreau [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] IN

5 units Blue [email protected] IN

2 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

Sabres-Islanders

2 units Eichel  [email protected] OUT

6 units [email protected] OUT

4 units o5.5 [email protected] OUT

2 units o7.5 [email protected] OUT

An all around horrible night that bottomed out when Werenski's goal was taken away and ruled a Gagner one. CBJ continues their amazing run, and can still be trusted to deliver night in and night out--unlike the likes of Penguins... Pens with 39 shots on Budaj against Kings 28 shots on goal, but sadly they were exactly that; shots on Budaj rather than shots on goal, as Budaj shut them out for a 1-0 win in overtime. Very dissapointing performance by the Stanley Cup winners. 88 units bet and only 55.18 returned for a loss of 32.82 units.

Total:

238 units bet on 59 picks

261.13 units collected from 21 correct ones

+ 23.13 units

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Canucks-Blue Jackets

1 unit Blue [email protected] ( makes it a 10 unit maxbet in total--with the afforementioned 9 units @2.08.. )
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
3 units Goalscorer [email protected]
5 units Foligno [email protected]

As usual, if anyone offer you an Atkinson Goalscorer bet @3.50 or better you should definitely be alert for that as well, and I think Werenski-point @2.10 or better also offer great value.

British Open 2016 Champion
Keyser

Keyser

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  • Author
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@Keyser wrote:

Canucks-Blue Jackets

9 units Blue [email protected] OUT

1 unit Blue [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

3 units Goalscorer [email protected] OUT

5 units Foligno [email protected] IN

As usual, if anyone offer you an @Atkinson Goalscorer bet @3.50 or better you should definitely be alert for that as well, and I think @Werenski-point @2.10 or better also offer great value.

Atkinson scored and Werenski collected point, but Blue Jackets gave away a 2-0 lead at 2nd intermission and a 3-2 lead with only 1.09 to go, only to win it in OT still.... Didn't do me much good, though... 21 units bet and only a measily 9 units returned gives a 12 unit loss. The worst thing is that both the 2-2 equalizer and the 3-3 equalizer are of the lucky variety, and the latter the kind Blue Jackets normally doesn't let in as they usually take out the middle. Murray on the ice rather than Werenski proved costly.

Total:

261 units bet on 63 picks

270.13 units collected from 22 correct ones

+9.13 units

British Open 2016 Champion
Magicadil

Magicadil

Posted
Posted

Blackhawks regular time @2.80

I debate
Should I smile like everything's good and pretend that life is great
Or should I let the world see the real me and not hide this pain
I tried to be like the rest of y'all, sorry I just can't
I'ma probably die this way

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