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I'll update this thread as each event draws nearer and will offer my pics and reasoning prior and my results after each event.

I've been betting the UFC for a few years now with up and down swings and have recently started Live betting fights on Unibet which add a lot of fun to the fights. 

If anyone has any pics that they want to share or discuss betting lines please do so. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Big UFC weekend coming up so I'll lay my pics by the date starting with Thursday July 7th UFC FN 90.


Not a ton of value for this card imo. 

RDA VS. Alvarez (5 round title fight, prop pick)

Rafael Dos Santos the LW Champ should handedly beat the challenger Eddie Alvarez.  But at odds around -350 (American format) there's not a lot of value.  Where a bet might be good is picking RDA to win in Rounds 3-4 combo and this unique bet can be made at Unibet at a good price of +450.  RDA is undoubtedly the most improved fighter in UFC history.  When he first broke into the organization he went an uneventful 3-3 losing to many non ranked opponents.  But something happened and he's won his last 10 while only suffering one defeat in that time to arguably the uncrowned champ Khahib Nugademov who is an absolute beast.  The reason for RDA's rise to prominance could be a switch of camps or great undetected steroids... but his demolishing of Benson Henderson, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone isn't a coincidence.  He will win this fight.  Alvarez has a big name based on his performances in a smaller organization (with less talent) and since arriving in the UFC he hasn't done much with a few mediocre wins and a tough loss against Cerrone.  He is a tough guy and that's why I think he will last until the 3rd or 4th.  But I don't see him going the distance and a win is nearly to proposterous to even consider.

Nelson vs. Lewis (HW 3rd fight)

This battle of the titans is going to deliver a fast and brutal knockout and with the perfect punch both guys could get the KO my position is that the winner will be the guy who can get the KO with the less than perfect punch.

And that is Roy Nelson.  Both hit hard but Nelson can take a punch while Lewis can't.  Therefore any reasonable punch will KO Lewis, only the perfect punch can KO Nelson.  With that in mind I like Nelson to win because if the fight hits the ground Nelson has good top control whereas Lewis has looked confused and not sure what to do on the mat even when he's been in dominant positions.  I'll be booking Nelson at -137 on Unibet while also taking a small postion on Nelson via Decision at +800.  It is unlikely but HW's are lazy by nature and often just strive to just get the nod if the early KO doesn't materialize.


Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Miina  (WW prop pics)

Age vs youth will be the story here.  Either Miina will get the quick KO finish on Pyle's faded chin or Pyle will survive the early onslaught and use his experience to out MMA his younger opponent and win in the 3rd round.  He has several finishes in the final stanza and doesn't look for decision wins. 

Therefore my pics are Miina via Rd1 at +350 and Pyle Rd3 at +1000.  A decent play is anyone to win via TKO at +150.


I'll update the results post UFC and try to come up with Pics for Friday's Tuff Finale. 





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