3K in a month at the micros personal challenge

[ArtyMcFly]

To use a real world analogy...

If Usain Bolt gets off the blocks slightly slower than Justin Gatlin and Gatlin is in first place after 10 metres, Bolt will still be the favourite. He's not ahead though. He just needs some rungood. ;)

[taft]

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@ArtyMcFly wrote:

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@taft wrote:

Okay @ArtyMcFly, I just feel that since we're ahead of say a one pair hand on flop it's not a bluff (on the flop). I understand that I don't have a winning hand in my hand yet but if I'm 57% to draw into a winning hand versus that likely pair then technically I am doing better than that pair, how am I bluffing? Turn changes that because now he's less likely to have a king and is more likely to have a stronger fd for example, so now it's an 8 high and bluff, also because there's only one more card to come.

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This is mostly semantics, but I'm pedantic about this kind of thing.

If the hand finished on the flop, 8-high would not beat one pair. It is not "ahead", since it needs to come from behind (suck out) to win. In the same way, 22 is technically ahead of JTs pre-flop, even though the latter is a slight favourite. The JTs still has to improve post-flop, ergo it's not ahead pre-flop.

 

 

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No, this is only true in a world where the hand ends on the flop or preflop as in your 22 and JT example. When does this happen with a showdown? If we are getting a showdown we are getting a flop, a turn and a river, there is no way around it. Of course we are mostly not getting a showdown anyway, but when discussing who is ahead = who has what showdown equity at any given point, you have to take into account the probabilities of each of those streets yet to come. You can not be mathematically ahead and mathematically behind at the same point in time.

If we're going to nitpick. 

And because hascorel has laughed at me for about 5 pages straight for holding this belief that I am ahead of a pair there on the flop and want to make a bet and get a little bit of money in, I guess we want to nitpick.

[ArtyMcFly]

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taft wrote:

 

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You can not be mathematically ahead and mathematically behind at the same point in time.

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This is true. But you don't seem to understand what most people mean by the term "ahead".

8-high might be a favourite to win by the river, but it is literally not ahead on the flop. It can't be "ahead", because it still needs to improve. At that point in time, it is losing to 9-high, let alone a pair, two pairs, or a set.

 

You could certainly argue that you "got it in good" if stacks went in on the flop with a combo draw vs a pair, and you might say "I'm a favourite vs a pair" or "I'm ahead in equity", (so it's not a bad idea to push that equity), but you're not literally beating anything at that instant.

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[FeelsBadMan]

 This is the most pointless discussion ever, but lets see your arguments, you said it yourself that "ahead in equity" is fine and favorite is the same thing, it's obvious that's what she means, you understand what she means, so whats the problem... You don't need to say every single time that it's "mathmatically ahead", that it's "ahead in equity", you understand the meaning, sure a novice might be confused, but you are not a novice.

Your hand stops at the flop example is only valid in a flop only poker variant where there are no more outs, this was not the case, you might as well be comparing a holdem hand in a razz game and say a Royal flush is behind. Your Usain Bolt example is an incomplete information example where you can't know all the factors that will contribute to the final result (you can estimate/speculate tho), while the all-in on the flop poker hand is a complete information example where you can know exactly what the chances of winning are, you can accurately say which hand is ahead in the race to win the hand which is what matters.

Your 3bet examples make no sense, you don't 3bet against a hand but against a range that has both better and worse hands, of course you could calculate the ranges to see if your hand is ahead or behind that range, even though your hand will not be ahead of every hand in that range, well unless you have aces :) , and how do you determine if it is ahead or behind the range (and how much)? You see how often is wins after the flop turn and river are dealt.

As for value bet vs bluff, lets say you have a 70% hand that needs to improve lets say an omaha hand AhKhQc8c vs KsKd3d2d on a QhJh9c flop, you are betting to get some value out of your 70% equity right, not out of your currently made hand but your equity, right? 70% of the time you are getting the money that goes in on the flop, you are betting to get that money 70% of the time. It's basically the same as betting KK vs Ax in holdem preflop, in both cases you are ahead in equity and you want to turn that equity into money. You're not semi bluffing, where lets say a 30-40% equity offers you a discount on how often the bluff needs to work to make money, you want all the money to go in right there because you're ahead in equity, so it's a value bet. Of course the closer your higher equity gets to 51% the more valuable it is to make your opponent fold his equity, regardless if his hand would win or not in a hypotetical no turn no river showdown, but ultimately you're still getting value(making money) if the money goes in, you're just getting more money if he folds. 

 

 

[taft]

Okay, NMPfan explained everything far better than I have been able to (thanks btw, I have reconsidered some of my reasons and plays in situations, very good posts) but I just want to ask Arty, how is your definition of ahead (meaning who has high hand flop, or pre or whatever) relevant in the context of a poker hand with 5 community cards necessary to see a showdown? It seems like you are getting worked up over me not paying enough attention to the fact that if we both show our hands on the flop and no more cards come, they likely have me beat because I only have an 8 high. Since who has high hand flop never actually determines who wins the pot in the variant I'm playing, I don't see how I need to take that into account at all. If I'm 57%, I'm 57% and am ahead, although by a small margin.

As far as considering everything a bluff where you want them to fold ... I personally mostly always want folds, I want the fold if I'm 5betting KK all in pre, because it's just safer. It's still not a bluff though.

[ArtyMcFly]

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@taft wrote:

 

As far as considering everything a bluff where you want them to fold ... I personally mostly always want folds

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[x] Mostly wants folds, even when 5-bet jamming KK.

[x[ Tries to make 3k in a month at the micros.

 

I'm out. /unsubs

[taft]

lol  couldn't handle the other argument so piced this to bang the door and leave?

I can explain the wanting a fold when 5bb jamming KK pre. There are 5 cards to come. There is plenty of money in the pot already since there has been a 4 bet. I am looking to take that money and run, I am willing to give up the equity I have vs their range for the certain money in my pocket right now if they fold. You can disagree with this, but I don't get why you're leaving. Especially with the whole "who's ahead" discussion unanswered by you. (See previous page)

[ArtyMcFly]

It's not that I "can't handle" the argument. I'm just bored of picking the low-hanging fruit. Most of my forum time (in the 2+2 poker theory section, for example) is spent discussing fairly high level stuff. If you want to learn the basics of poker theory, I'd advise you to get Sklansky's 'Theory of Poker' or something, because I don't have time to rewrite it here.

I honestly wish you luck with your challenge.

[taft]

I also feel a bit let down  and  (and ) because I have been trying to be nothing but civil here and you have basically laughed at me up and and down for not caring about who has high hand flop while I am ahead in equity, mathematically, telling me I know nothing about poker and am generally not that smart, all I have done is disagree with you about that specific "who is ahead" thing where you know, I am right - you are wrong, in case you haven't figured that out yet, and share some general plays I make which could be bad idk, but I don't deserve being laughed at and insulted for them. You can disagree, that's fine. If you give reasons for disagreeing that's even better, because I'm not posting standard hands anyway, I am posting hands I feel iffy about, but I am not going to take every uneducated opinion to heart, sorry, no reason to get offended if I don't go oooh thank you so much great lord of poker when you tell me, no don't do this, are you stupid. 

Thank you  for raising the level of this thread, that was very refreshing. Unfortunately it's on another page now and we're back to insults and door slamming. Idk what it is about me that attracts that sort of behaviour. 

I'm kinda sad.

[hascorel]

Is not worth to explain something to this guy ... ps ..like your thread on 2+2 ... watch him for severl months .GL

[hascorel]

And .gl with your goal  and waiting   you on nl 50 to play around   in your journy back to nl 400

[taft]

I haven't posted anything on 2+2, what are you talking about? I mean I have exchanged some tickets in the Unibet thread, and talked a bit about pancakes in oot :D But I don't have a thread there. I also have a different username on 2+2.

[hascorel]

I haven't posted anything on 2+2, what are you talking about? I mean I have exchanged some tickets in the Unibet thread, and talked a bit about pancakes in oot /html/images/emoticons/Asset8.png But I don't have a thread there. I also have a different username on 2+2.

 

Not you ...i talking about 

[Magicadil]

No hard feelings ? You can look back at alk my previous posts and see I didn't say anything negative.

I may have come off a little mad in one if the posts but I was half asleep and it was 5AM

 

[taft]

 I see you have liked Arty's recent post where he suggests I should read up on basic poker theory though, because he can't be bothered with explaining to me (any more I guess) how I am behind while I'm 57% ahead . I find that interesting. What did you like about that post? I think he was trying to insult me, idk.

[taft]

No hard feelings  :)

[taft]

Okay, decided I do feel insulted by Arty, so I'm just going to put that low hanging fruit out here for anyone else to try and defend him since he has said he's above it because it's so obvious to him, being so good at poker theory like he is (read this in another topic, good at theory bad at tables. I don't even ... Ok.)

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@taft wrote:

 but I just want to ask Arty, how is your definition of ahead (meaning who has high hand flop, or pre or whatever) relevant in the context of a poker hand with 5 community cards necessary to see a showdown? It seems like you are getting worked up over me not paying enough attention to the fact that if we both show our hands on the flop and no more cards come, they likely have me beat because I only have an 8 high. Since who has high hand flop never actually determines who wins the pot in the variant I'm playing, I don't see how I need to take that into account at all. If I'm 57%, I'm 57% and am ahead, although by a small margin.

 

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Sorry for picking a fight, but you started it @ArtyMcFly. I undestand you don't play omaha at all and in holdem the openender+flushdraw vs pair on flop is a sort of special situation, because most holdem hands who has high hand presently tends to be also who has more showdown equity at present, so I can understand how this gets confusing, but you said you're really good at poker theory, how can you not get this. Showdown equity directly  equals "ahead", high hand flop does not.

[MoreTBC]

This thread is not GTO anymore. Damn you PokerSnowie.. DAMN YOU!!

 

How's the challenge going ? [/threadsteering]

[taft]

Haha, not going well, went bust, even have a double trouble ticket to show for it this week. 

Not sure if I'll still try though, I should be getting a 20 in my account from last month's rake race by my affiliate any day now, so there's that, also who knows, maybe I'll get 40 from the double trouble. Basically feel I picked too low a starting roll and tried to play too high with it too soon. Have been running like crap as well though, the weekend crowds always want big pots and I swear I have been getting it in good all the time :D

[kingngod]

This is what everyone tried to explain here, well u can watch TheFan83 on twitch with goal to reach from 30k to 3M(offcourse it s possibly not main goal, it s just to advertise channel) but still fun, entertaining and to learn something from that. Uhlenpoker best to learn from, he play mostly cash games on Unibet, some tourneys aswell on PS and PP :peace:

[taft]

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What? What was "everyone" trying to explain here? I get the feeling you agree with Arty, care to explain? :D

Thank you for the suggestions though, Uhlen is defs good, I haven't heard about the other guy. :)

Idk, I kind of want to repost NMPfans whole post versus Arty here (page 8 towards the end), because I feel like most people are not understanding this whole thing at all and are somehow disagreeing with me because of personal reasons or something and they still somehow get the feeling that Arty is right here since he has boasted to be good at this and has said I am bad at this so many times. Read the actual arguments, people, please. 

[hascorel]

If you take this discution on 2+2  strategy  forum , no one will agree with you ...make a try ..post it on small stakes nl ...if you played nl 400 before i think you have an account , and a bunch of hands , analys post , etc

[taft]

Omg @hascorel seriously?

If you don't believe me, do you believe NMPfan at least, because he's clearly good. Wtf. Can you people read at all? Sorry, I am getting a bit tired of this. Here it is again then, by @FeelsBadMan

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@FeelsBadMan wrote:

@ArtyMcFly This is the most pointless discussion ever, but lets see your arguments, you said it yourself that "ahead in equity" is fine and favorite is the same thing, it's obvious that's what she means, you understand what she means, so whats the problem... You don't need to say every single time that it's "mathmatically ahead", that it's "ahead in equity", you understand the meaning, sure a novice might be confused, but you are not a novice.

Your hand stops at the flop example is only valid in a flop only poker variant where there are no more outs, this was not the case, you might as well be comparing a holdem hand in a razz game and say a Royal flush is behind. Your Usain Bolt example is an incomplete information example where you can't know all the factors that will contribute to the final result (you can estimate/speculate tho), while the all-in on the flop poker hand is a complete information example where you can know exactly what the chances of winning are, you can accurately say which hand is ahead in the race to win the hand which is what matters.

Your 3bet examples make no sense, you don't 3bet against a hand but against a range that has both better and worse hands, of course you could calculate the ranges to see if your hand is ahead or behind that range, even though your hand will not be ahead of every hand in that range, well unless you have aces :) , and how do you determine if it is ahead or behind the range (and how much)? You see how often is wins after the flop turn and river are dealt.

As for value bet vs bluff, lets say you have a 70% hand that needs to improve lets say an omaha hand AhKhQc8c vs KsKd3d2d on a QhJh9c flop, you are betting to get some value out of your 70% equity right, not out of your currently made hand but your equity, right? 70% of the time you are getting the money that goes in on the flop, you are betting to get that money 70% of the time. It's basically the same as betting KK vs Ax in holdem preflop, in both cases you are ahead in equity and you want to turn that equity into money. You're not semi bluffing, where lets say a 30-40% equity offers you a discount on how often the bluff needs to work to make money, you want all the money to go in right there because you're ahead in equity, so it's a value bet. Of course the closer your higher equity gets to 51% the more valuable it is to make your opponent fold his equity, regardless if his hand would win or not in a hypotetical no turn no river showdown, but ultimately you're still getting value(making money) if the money goes in, you're just getting more money if he folds. 

 

 

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[taft]

Okay, thank you  for bringing up snowie :D I was thinking some of you, if you cannot understand words at all, maybe you can understand pictures. Here's what pokersnowie thinks. (we are limping and checking the flop here pre by both because we just want to see who is ahead on that flop, not suggesting to actually play like this, I hope this is understandable.) 

The AA goes all in on the flop, here's where snowie says we stand and the advice it gives to us with our "8 high":

We take this advice and make the call, snowie says this call was:

Any other questions? No one would agree with me with who is ahead? Any chance I get an "yea, sorry, my bad, you were right" out of a couple of you here?

[taft]

I notice I made a wording error in the prev post, too late to edit. :D Let's see if anyone picks that up and wants to go on for about 5 pages now about how I can not tell the difference between pre and flop. Gl and ty everyone, it's been fun.