Worst downswing

[Xerka23]

This is not a rant or rigged post, i just can't explain it anymore. I dealt with downswings +10 years and i know how it works. But this one...is a sick one. And what i noticed is that they are worse and worse. I know i make more mistakes and some tilt and etc. etc. , but still man...it is just unbelieveble. And i put in so much volume, but still can't see the light. Also i can admit when someone is more skilled, but it is soul crushing to get owned so bad by the cards. I am that point that when i finally win a flip i feel like that i got so lucky, like when i hit a two outer. Also i am not expecting to win 67% or 62% a 10 10 type hand vs. Q8, or a AK vs. QJ hand, but it would be nice to win to from time to time. And there are hours when am not getting good cards...i just can't do anything. But as long as i manage to put in the money good, there isn't a lot i can do. I am just tired of this poker sc-fi. Some poker blogger said that the more poker u play in your life, u will eventually will have the worst downswing imaginable. Players who played many years, have u noticed something like this?

[LCW]

I have two distinctly rememberable long-lasting periods in 15ish years of playing, where I wish I would have recorded calling out river cards, as well as opponents' hole cards based on what river card hit, to convince people I had psychic abilities. The previous one hit when I decided to play through the whole loyalty system in December a couple of years ago, as I was pretty well situated to do so after the first two months. Horrid days, where I think my pulse was 30% higher than normal all day before starting to play, as I was massively burnt out and expecting to be down 4 figs withing the first 30 minutes after opening up the client (only to be proven right 6 out of 7 days of the week). Meanwhile the incentives just grew bigger and bigger, making quitting ever more unacceptable. The only good rule-of-thumb I have for myself in such a phase (yeah, intellectually I know it's an illusion, and variance has no memory, but I still treat such a downswing as a cyclical phase because it feels supernaturally real and persuasive), is to play the nittiest and most straight-forward game pre-flop that I can accept, i.e if on the fence, choose fold. And to try to commit chips in pre-flop if both call/raise seem acceptable and post-flop could get tricky, because I know I'm not gonna be able to handle post-flop stuff totally objectively if the wrong stuff happens.

Edited September 28, 2024 by LCW

[marlini2]

https://www.philgalfond.com/articles/variance-beyond-the-surface

I highly recommend this read. He knows what he's talking about. I think it's better to take a break, even an extended one, rather than playing suboptimally. I tend to agree with him that playing tighter doesn't actually reduce downswings. I've also noticed that 'downswings' often hit me when I'm chasing some kind of bonus or loyalty level. But is it really a downswing? Or am I just tired and noticing lost all-ins more? Maybe because I feel unlucky, I start playing worse, and the cycle continues. Or I play my A-game for 200 Hexapro games with a 10% ROI, but because I'm chasing bonuses, I need to play 350 games, and in the last 150, instead of maintaining a 10% ROI, I end up playing break-even.

We all know this feeling. One day, you can lose 10 all-ins in a row without it affecting your mindset, but the next day, you lose a flip and start losing your mind. Break is usually an answer. Poker will be there next day/week.