Seb-Unibet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Gooood afternoon community,☀️☀️☀️ It's me Seb, the poker marketing manager at Unibet. The poker members know me already, but what they didn't know - I am also a passionate sports-bettor and I wanted to share my weekly top picks with the community. I am a supporter of Borussia Dortmund, but when it comes to Amateur football, I support my two teams SSV Ulm 1846 and Carl-Zeiss Jena. You can expect some picks from the German Regionalliga! 😄 I will focus on German football (Bundesliga - Oberliga) and I will start with 1000 Units (stakes will be 1-10 Units). As soon as I go broke, this project will be over. My main betting markets are "draw-no-bet" and "corner bets". 💸 1st pick: ZFC Meuselwitz - Carl Zeiss Jena @ DRAW-NO-Bet 2 @ odds 1,47 - Stake 5/10 Units Matchday: 21st August at 13:30 CEST Carl-Zeiss Jena with a bad start into the current Regionalliga season. They are on 11th place with 7 points after 5 matches. However, they managed to win their last match vs Germania Halberstadt 2:1. The offense looked promising, but the team did some unnecessary mistakes in the defense - I am sure the defense will stabilize over the next few matches (as soon as the team will have some success). The atmosphere inside the team has been pretty good during this week and players are motivated to face ZFC Meuselwitz tomorrow (1:30 CEST). Meuselwitz with just 3 points from their last 3 matches at home. Last week, they lost their last match to Optik Rathenow 2:1 in which they had been the worse team. The team needs to find back in track but it will be quite a challenge vs Jena. They will face Jena as underdog and most likely the coach will start with a very defensive formation. I expect a long 0-0 score and that Meuselwitz tries to go for counter attacks (maybe some kick-n-rush style). The current shape speaks for Jena and with the great atmosphere inside the team during this week, I think they will go for their second win in a row - but placing the bet as (H2H). Meuselwitz lost 5 games in a row. Last H2H: Meuselwitz - Jena 0:5 (https://www.kicker.de/meuselwitz-gegen-jena-2021-landespokal-thueringen-4711598/direktvergleich) But it was a cup game back in June when both teams had been in the mid of the season preparation. IMPORTANT: Meuselwitz signed some players from Jena last month (including Rene Eckardt who had been the captain for Jena for several years). I wouldnt have placed the bet if all of these players would have played tomorrow - but Rene Eckardt and Dominik Bock are still injured and they wont be able to face their old club. On the other site, players from Carl-Zeiss will be even more motivated to play this derby knowing that 4 previous team members play for the other club now! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreedoM Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Good Luck! ⚽ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 2nd pick: Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld @ X/2 @ odds 1,49 - Stake 5/10 Units Matchday: 21st August at 15:30 CEST 2nd pick of the day - and this time, I have chosen a match from the German Bundesliga. It is quite early in the season but having watched the matches last week, I don't think that Greuther Fürth has a big chance to remain in the Bundesliga. This team is just not competitive enough. They lost to VFB Stuttgart 5:1. The defense had been just bad and it was way too easy to score for Stuttgart - especially after crosses - which can be seen below. I expect Fabian Klos to score at least one Header tomorrow 🙂 And then there is Arminia Bielefeld - a team which did quite well vs equipollent teams during the previous season. I also liked their performance vs Freiburg on the first match day - I just don't expect Greuther Fürth to win at home. Arminia Bielefeld has a good defense and with Fabian Klos a striker which is good at headers 🙂 I got this double chance for an odd of 1,49 which seems to be good value - but the odd has already started to drop. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Seb-Unibet said: Gooood afternoon community,☀️☀️☀️ 1st pick: ZFC Meuselwitz - Carl Zeiss Jena @ DRAW-NO-Bet 2 @ odds 1,47 - Stake 5/10 Units 57 minutes ago, Seb-Unibet said: 2nd pick: Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld @ X/2 @ odds 1,49 - Stake 5/10 Units @Seb-Unibet Are your bets 5 or 10 units? 🤔 "As soon as I go broke, this project will be over." I sense you need a bit more confidence. 🥴 Best of luck though. 🍀 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, GR1ZZL3R said: @Seb-Unibet Are your bets 5 or 10 units? 🤔 "As soon as I go broke, this project will be over." I sense you need a bit more confidence. 🥴 Best of luck though. 🍀 5 units (should be 5 out of 10) I am very conservative with the BRM - and this statement should meant to be sarcastic!!! 🙂 Pretty sure that I will achieve a ROI of 5-10% 💪💪💪 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparrow473 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, GR1ZZL3R said: Are your bets 5 or 10 units? 5 hours ago, Seb-Unibet said: I will start with 1000 Units (stakes will be 1-10 Units). ? EDIT: I mean it is clear af I think... Edited August 20, 2021 by Sparrow473 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pionrj Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18 hours ago, Seb-Unibet said: 5 units (should be 5 out of 10) I am very conservative with the BRM - and this statement should meant to be sarcastic!!! 🙂 Pretty sure that I will achieve a ROI of 5-10% 💪💪💪 GL. You need to have a huge hit rate to achieve that 10% with those odds. Even 5% seems hard but I assume those odds are in the very low end of your bets? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Pionrj said: GL. You need to have a huge hit rate to achieve that 10% with those odds. Even 5% seems hard but I assume those odds are in the very low end of your bets? Average odd should be at around 1.7-1.8 as my odds vary from 1.4 - 2.7. Usually, I put more Units on the lower odd if I see value. I have some great knowledge about the Regionalliga and friends who are connected to the league and attend all games. Therefore, I expect a decent hitting rate there 🙂 But lets see - it is all about fun. In the past, I made some good profit with selected top picks, but I tended to spew the winnings by gambling from time to time 😄 My target is to reach 1150 Units until the end of this year - setting up a big target here, I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 3:29 PM, Seb-Unibet said: Gooood afternoon community,☀️☀️☀️ It's me Seb, the poker marketing manager at Unibet. The poker members know me already, but what they didn't know - I am also a passionate sports-bettor and I wanted to share my weekly top picks with the community. I am a supporter of Borussia Dortmund, but when it comes to Amateur football, I support my two teams SSV Ulm 1846 and Carl-Zeiss Jena. You can expect some picks from the German Regionalliga! 😄 I will focus on German football (Bundesliga - Oberliga) and I will start with 1000 Units (stakes will be 1-10 Units). As soon as I go broke, this project will be over. My main betting markets are "draw-no-bet" and "corner bets". 💸 1st pick: ZFC Meuselwitz - Carl Zeiss Jena @ DRAW-NO-Bet 2 @ odds 1,47 - Stake 5/10 Units Matchday: 21st August at 13:30 CEST Carl-Zeiss Jena with a bad start into the current Regionalliga season. They are on 11th place with 7 points after 5 matches. However, they managed to win their last match vs Germania Halberstadt 2:1. The offense looked promising, but the team did some unnecessary mistakes in the defense - I am sure the defense will stabilize over the next few matches (as soon as the team will have some success). The atmosphere inside the team has been pretty good during this week and players are motivated to face ZFC Meuselwitz tomorrow (1:30 CEST). Meuselwitz with just 3 points from their last 3 matches at home. Last week, they lost their last match to Optik Rathenow 2:1 in which they had been the worse team. The team needs to find back in track but it will be quite a challenge vs Jena. They will face Jena as underdog and most likely the coach will start with a very defensive formation. I expect a long 0-0 score and that Meuselwitz tries to go for counter attacks (maybe some kick-n-rush style). The current shape speaks for Jena and with the great atmosphere inside the team during this week, I think they will go for their second win in a row - but placing the bet as (H2H). Meuselwitz lost 5 games in a row. Last H2H: Meuselwitz - Jena 0:5 (https://www.kicker.de/meuselwitz-gegen-jena-2021-landespokal-thueringen-4711598/direktvergleich) But it was a cup game back in June when both teams had been in the mid of the season preparation. IMPORTANT: Meuselwitz signed some players from Jena last month (including Rene Eckardt who had been the captain for Jena for several years). I wouldnt have placed the bet if all of these players would have played tomorrow - but Rene Eckardt and Dominik Bock are still injured and they wont be able to face their old club. On the other site, players from Carl-Zeiss will be even more motivated to play this derby knowing that 4 previous team members play for the other club now! 100% as expected. Jena was dominating the full first half, but unfortunately it was the team of Meuselwitz which managed to score the first goal after a counter attack. It was a corner for Jena which they cleared and suddenly, they had a 2-1 situation and managed to score. But Jena was unimpressed and scored the equalizer just before half-time (psychologically a great moment to score). The second half was also dominated by Jena - with the difference that they scored two goals. They could have even scored more as they had lots of great chances. End result: 1:3 Carl Zeiss Jena 1st pick: ZFC Meuselwitz - Carl Zeiss Jena @ DRAW-NO-Bet 2 @ odds 1,47 - Stake 5 Units Winnings: 1.47 x 5 Units = 7.35 Units + 2.35 Units 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karmasuper Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Today in Germany BIG game Leverkusen-Gladbach(likely draw). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Karmasuper said: Today in Germany BIG game Leverkusen-Gladbach(likely draw). Ha 😄 that will be a great one and I have no clue who will win it. At a kicktipp group with my friends I picked the result 2-2. It will be a great game for sure, but I think everything can happen here 🙂 I will just enjoy watching the game later on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pionrj Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, Seb-Unibet said: Average odd should be at around 1.7-1.8 as my odds vary from 1.4 - 2.7. Usually, I put more Units on the lower odd if I see value. I have some great knowledge about the Regionalliga and friends who are connected to the league and attend all games. Therefore, I expect a decent hitting rate there 🙂 But lets see - it is all about fun. In the past, I made some good profit with selected top picks, but I tended to spew the winnings by gambling from time to time 😄 My target is to reach 1150 Units until the end of this year - setting up a big target here, I know. That is. It basically means 600 bets untill the end of year, if you average 5 units and 5% ROI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 3:49 PM, Seb-Unibet said: 2nd pick: Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld @ X/2 @ odds 1,49 - Stake 5/10 Units Matchday: 21st August at 15:30 CEST 2nd pick of the day - and this time, I have chosen a match from the German Bundesliga. It is quite early in the season but having watched the matches last week, I don't think that Greuther Fürth has a big chance to remain in the Bundesliga. This team is just not competitive enough. They lost to VFB Stuttgart 5:1. The defense had been just bad and it was way too easy to score for Stuttgart - especially after crosses - which can be seen below. I expect Fabian Klos to score at least one Header tomorrow 🙂 And then there is Arminia Bielefeld - a team which did quite well vs equipollent teams during the previous season. I also liked their performance vs Freiburg on the first match day - I just don't expect Greuther Fürth to win at home. Arminia Bielefeld has a good defense and with Fabian Klos a striker which is good at headers 🙂 I got this double chance for an odd of 1,49 which seems to be good value - but the odd has already started to drop. Fabian Klos (Arminia Bielefeld) leaps to meet a brilliant cross and plants a header beyond the goalkeeper into the roof of the net. I hope someone followed my analysis and made a bet on Fabian Klos to score a goal (by header) 😄 😄 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 On 8/20/2021 at 3:49 PM, Seb-Unibet said: 2nd pick: Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld @ X/2 @ odds 1,49 - Stake 5/10 Units Matchday: 21st August at 15:30 CEST 2nd pick of the day - and this time, I have chosen a match from the German Bundesliga. It is quite early in the season but having watched the matches last week, I don't think that Greuther Fürth has a big chance to remain in the Bundesliga. This team is just not competitive enough. They lost to VFB Stuttgart 5:1. The defense had been just bad and it was way too easy to score for Stuttgart - especially after crosses - which can be seen below. I expect Fabian Klos to score at least one Header tomorrow 🙂 And then there is Arminia Bielefeld - a team which did quite well vs equipollent teams during the previous season. I also liked their performance vs Freiburg on the first match day - I just don't expect Greuther Fürth to win at home. Arminia Bielefeld has a good defense and with Fabian Klos a striker which is good at headers 🙂 I got this double chance for an odd of 1,49 which seems to be good value - but the odd has already started to drop. 2nd pick: Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld @ X/2 @ odds 1,49 - Stake 5 Units Winnings: 5 x 1,49 = 7.45 --> + 2.45 Units This was a close game. Bielefeld had some difficulties in the beginning and got lucky by scoring the first goal (like I have highlighted - the weakness at crosses can be a problem for Fürth. After Greuther Fürth scored the equalizer (well-deserved), Bielefeld had another 100% chance where they had to score... And just a few minutes later Alexander Schoepf was sent off the field with a yellow-red card. In the end, you can say, that it was a lucky win, as I expected the match to be a bit different. I should have better palced a bet on Klos to score (with a header) for one Unit 🙂 Nevertheless, it was a good start for the blog. Balance 1004,8 Units Bet statistics: 2W 0L 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 I wanted to share my third pick - and it is for the German Bundesliga: 1. FC Union Berlin - Mönchengladbach - Head-to-Head (Draw no bet) 2 - Odd 2.1 There is not much explanation on this pick just that I see the odd distribution to be wrong. It reflects the current form of both teams which might be misleading. The quality of the squads speak for Gladbach, the current form speaks for Union. However, when I checked the odds, I expected a 1.8 on h2h Gladbach and told myself, I will go for a bet if the odd is higher than that. Double chance for 1.55 could also be considered - but knowing that the oddskeys are much higher on the double chance markets, I prefer to go for H2H here. Let‘s hope that Plea and Stindl will be back on fire and that Union lost some energy due to the European game during the week (also Union spared some of their main players vs the Finns). Placed this bet with 5 Units. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seb-Unibet Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 First bet lost - disappointed of Gladbachs performance and at some point I have to give Union some credit... it was almost a void as Gladbach had the chance to score the equalizer. I haven’t watched the match but will read some match reports later on. - 5 Units Balance 999,8 Units Bet statistics: 2W 1L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now