Euro 2020

[Stubbe-Unibet]

Oh how I love reading Twitter these days. The English are mostly just talking about whether they'll be facing Spain or Italy in the final 😂 and there's an abundance of "it's coming home".

England huge favorites against Denmark, if we look at the odds: 1.73 on England and 5.55 on Denmark (average on the bookmakers I use).

I won't argue against the fact that England are favorites, especially when they're at home and have forbidden any Danish fans to enter the country to watch the game (bit odd when the only championship England have a chance of winning is the one of worst COVID handling and highest number of cases - if anyone should fear Danes going to UK to watch the game, it's Denmark, not the other way around😅).

Anyway, Denmark faced England twice last year. 0-0 and a 0-1 win for Denmark. Denmark did win on a penalty and Maguire was sent off in the first half, but at the same time the Danish team has improved immensely since then and especially the introduction of Mæhle (who's currently in top 10 for "Player of the tournament") has made a big difference (Skov isn't bad, but he's so far from the current level of Mæhle).

If we look at the games this Euro, I also don't get the odds. Sure, England haven't conceded a goal yet - which is indeed very impressive - but they've been far from great when attacking, creating relatively few chances. Sure, they did score 4 goals against Ukraine, a team which played their best game in a 2-1 win against North Macedonia...

Denmark have their weaknesses as well - as evident from the last game - but if we forget about the game where Eriksen was technically dead next to his team mates and players forced to resume the game hours later, they've been doing pretty damn well. 2-1 loss against Belgium with huge win on expected goals, 1-4 against a weak Russia, 4-0 against Wales and 1-2 against Czech Rep. (which England beat 1-0).

I'm incapable of being objective here 😄 but I do think it's closer than the odds currently indicates.

[Stubbe-Unibet]

4 minutes ago, Pionrj said:

@Stubbe-UnibetDid you travel to London? I just read that everyone without UK residence travelling to UK needs to take a mandatory 10 day quarantine. So not many Danish fans at Wembley. 

I didn't, but I'm going for the final! 😄

There's no quarantine when travelling from Malta to the UK. It will indeed by quite odd with none of the hardcore supporters there - as there's quarantine when travelling from Denmark - but there should be around 5000 Danes living in the UK, that will go to Wembley (think it's 6000 tickets the Danish football federation got)

[Pionrj]

I feel like those odds are based more on the fact that England has basically had no troubles on their defence. Germany had two good scoring chances. That's about it. And now when Kane has got the ball in the net in last two games there's nothing to really be worried about in England. Getting the home ground boost and being the only team who haven't lost a single match on xG makes those odds reasonable to me.

[cris1285]

England always fails to deliver, however even with this low-key performance its their trophy to loose. Its an extra pressure i guess. We will see, but i feel this is the perfect time for the inevitable (?) upset. I told you guys, England passed the german exam to loose against Denmark in the semis, would be so traditional. Cant stand that arrogance "we beat Germany and we are in the final", when couldnt even beat Denmark in the qualies... 

[GR1ZZL3R]

1 hour ago, Stubbe-Unibet said:

I'm incapable of being objective here 😄 but I do think it's closer than the odds currently indicates.

    I totally agree with this sentiment. 😄

[Livertool]

1 hour ago, Stubbe-Unibet said:

2-1 loss against Belgium with huge win on expected goals, 1-4 against a weak Russia, 4-0 against Wales and 1-2 against Czech Rep. (which England beat 1-0).

Forgetting something? 😜 Something to Southgate to watch how professionals open Denmark defence 😄

 

But yeah, while England is pretty much like starburst, win often but big wins nowhere to be seen, this time they should do it. I can't figure out single aspect that Denmark has supeority over them. 

If Denmark could manage first goal like in every match they have won, then they might have tiny chance to push at least xtra time or penalties where everything is possible. But it is very likely that England gets first one and then they would be in position where they haven't managed to turn it around single time this tournament so i wouldn't expect it to happen against best defending team either. More likely they just have to open their game and then fast forwards of England say "thanks for all the space" and make couple goals more.

 

 

[Pionrj]

Should we talk about Italy-Spain? They've faced each others 22 times. Only once has the team marked as a away team won. It was Spain in Olympic Games and the year was 1920. 

[BillyR23]

1 hour ago, Livertool said:

But yeah, while England is pretty much like starburst, win often but big wins nowhere to be seen, this time they should do it. I can't figure out single aspect that Denmark has supeority over them. 

On paper(nowadays this translates at transfermarkt, where England 'leads' 1.3 billion to 'just' 300 millions) yes it's tough to find any aspect where Denmark has superiority but as someone that watched all the games played by the two teams I can objectively say that this should be a toss coin and if the match wasn't  played on Wembley- I would even say Denmark would be favorite: they looked great in the offense(even against Finland- a match that was poorly handled by UEFA), the midfield was really strong, while the defense was quite good too... the defense is actually the only aspect where I see England superior and not just because they haven't conceded a goal yet...

PS. I actually hope the Final will be Spain vs England so we won't be that many people for the 10.000 exclusive Team Collector tournament(I guess everyone completed group A and for Denmark you just needed to play 3x 1 euro mtts, while for England and Spain you had to put some effort 😅 ), but if we are objective and we look only on what happened on the field this tournament than we might see Italy vs Denmark playing for the trophy (Spain has been mediocre the entire Euro- especially their defense and this should be quite easy for Italy; actually Spain's midfield was ok if you wanted to go to sleep as in most games you could see countless passes with no plan in mind...)

[Livertool]

Hopefully Denmark gets lucky again like against Czech with corner that should not be and makes first goal, that would be good for match 😄

2 hours ago, BillyR23 said:

actually Spain's midfield was ok if you wanted to go to sleep as in most games you could see countless passes with no plan in mind...)

Spain is top team with xG so it ain't just "no plan in mind" more like plan has been good but struggling to finish most of time. But i wouldn't expect that Italy gives up possession as easily as others have, going to be interesting to see how it turns out.

[Stubbe-Unibet]

5 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Hopefully Denmark gets lucky again like against Czech with corner that should not be and makes first goal, that would be good for match 😄

Spain is top team with xG so it ain't just "no plan in mind" more like plan has been good but struggling to finish most of time. But i wouldn't expect that Italy gives up possession as easily as others have, going to be interesting to see how it turns out.

There was obvious hand on so if it wasn't a corner, it's a penalty, but nice trolling 😉

 

[Livertool]

52 minutes ago, Stubbe-Unibet said:

There was obvious hand on so if it wasn't a corner, it's a penalty, but nice trolling 😉

 

Penalty from handfault outside box?

Anyways, idk what ass ref saw but certainly not that as he was behind dane player.

Not that it matters anymore, water under the bridge.

 

[Stubbe-Unibet]

42 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Penalty from handfault outside box?

Anyways, idk what ass ref saw but certainly not that as he was behind dane player.

Not that it matters anymore, water under the bridge.

 

I don't remember the situation (too many beers and rum before and during the game(s)) just been following the conversations on Twitter 😄 

[Livertool]

1 hour ago, Stubbe-Unibet said:

I don't remember the situation (too many beers and rum before and during the game(s)) just been following the conversations on Twitter 😄 

You do realize that fakenews in twitter didn't end there when they kicked Trump out 🤐

[Steel_Hungary]

 

Damsgaard invite to @Stubbe-Unibet to Wembley. 😃 What a GOOOALLL! 

[Rushbie]

1-1 and a great show coming up 😎

[Livertool]

[cris1285]

I dont see Denmark scoring again. Underperforming since the freekick goal. 

[Livertool]

Fking harsh 🤬

 

[Rushbie]

Disgraceful bs 🤢

 

[Livertool]

On 6/30/2021 at 12:39 AM, Rushbie said:

Now that you may have grandma 2.0, sell it and all money to Italy. Trust me (again:p )

[FreedoM]

[Stubbe-Unibet]

Own goal and diving. Great job England.... Home of football 🤣

[Livertool]

VAR, so we get right decision everytime...

Not in any situation VAR would have called penalty unless ref would have called it. Not that Denmark created anything and probly would have lost anyhow but still. Sad effort from England, only when they were behind they were eager to make goal. I'll buy spaghetti, red wine, place bets for Italy and hope that justice comes through 😄

[Steel_Hungary]

Two balls were on pitch on Sterling's side before the penalty, imo. I think must to stop the game. 

[psrquack]

I agree with Livertool, Denmark couldn't keep the ball, their ball possession especially in the second half was very poor, so England theoretically would win the game, but still, bad taste in mouth.