silvert Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I ask knowledgeable people to explain how flips with Santa Claus go? Let's say I won the first 3 flips in a row and lost 4, the result is reset to 0 or remains in the same position. And do you need to somehow fix your winnings or is it automatically credited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laifstaile Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 u go back to 0.... u can also collect prize u like and start again from 0 If u want a chop u do not get it....If u do not want chop u get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EatMoreNaga Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 When you win a flip you have option to cashout the shown prize or flip again for a chance at the higher prize. If you lose a flip you get nothing. You do not win the previous prizes. You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EatMoreNaga Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 u type faster than i ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahahaha Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @EatMoreNaga wrote: You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize.It has been stated in previous years that the chance is not 50/50 but decreases with each step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @Omahahaha wrote: @EatMoreNaga wrote: You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize.It has been stated in previous years that the chance is not 50/50 but decreases with each step.I believe that's an example of gambler's fallacy @Omahahaha If you win 3, 4 or 5 50/50 flips in a row then your chances of winning another 50/50 flip stay the same, neither increasing or decreasing. It's the same in roulette, just because 10 blacks have appeared in a row doesn't make it more likely that red is due next. "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunckyFish Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I am sure that the chances are lower than 50% after 4-5 steps. Of course in coin flip or roulette it's the same 50/50, but here you have steps for bigger prizes. Let's say you reach 5th step here 100 times. If it's 50/50 for 6th step, that means you win the flip and go to 6th step 50 times. It will never will happen this :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @FunckyFish The chances being lower or higher than 50/50 on any step that is set as a 50/50 chance is not possible, no matter how many have been won or lost in a row, the size of the prize is irrelevant. The odds could only be changed beforehand if the game is set up to not be fair, not 50/50, I'm certainly not going down that particular rabbit hole. "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P0kerM0nk Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 50/50 doesnt mean that you win 5 and lose 5 every time you play 10 games. I'm not the best to explain theoretical stuff but the closest you will get to 50/50 is when you run the games infinitely. It's like poker variance in general, you can go all in with AA vs KK and your equity is about 82% but that does not mean you are going to win every 4 out of 5 runs. You can lose 10 in a row and you can win 10 in a row but if you would run games infinitely it will be close to 82%.Also chances don't decrease after each win with the santa flips, it stays 50/50 chance of you winning the next flip. The chance of you on keeping winning flips in a row on the other hand will decrease the longer you go ahead. If that makes sense. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunckyFish Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 It's only one 1100 ticket and for sure bigger prizes are only few. If it was 50/50, a lot of people were winning 1100 euro tickets and other big prizes. Each category has a certain number of prizes set by Unibet. On gold you have to win 8 flips to win the biggest prize. If you are at 50/50, odds 2 to win a flip, the odds to win the big prize are 255:1. Since there is only one prize, this will never happen with 50/50. If it was set with 50/50, statistic you will have a top prize winner for every 256 games that are not stopping earlier than the top prize. And I am sure that also top prize 2,3,4 have also very low number of prizes set.It's strange how you can believe they are giving so many top prizes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EatMoreNaga Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @Omahahaha wrote: @EatMoreNaga wrote: You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize.It has been stated in previous years that the chance is not 50/50 but decreases with each step.I missed that info. Any chance you have link for that. It would mean the game is not run on top of the same RNG and game mechanics as poker, but would be a slot with no simulated 52 card deck. I'm just going by the assumption each deal is the same as in the poker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahahaha Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 https://www.unibetcommunity.com/t5/General-Poker/Santa-s-Challenge/m-p/288580#M44201 Re: Santa's ChallengeDon't have the actual specs for this promo, but the probabilities usually change according to the step you're at, and I'd assume that's the case here as well. So no, you won't score on 5 of 6 shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EatMoreNaga Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @FunckyFish wrote: It's only one 1100 ticket and for sure bigger prizes are only few. If it was 50/50, a lot of people were winning 1100 euro tickets and other big prizes. Each category has a certain number of prizes set by Unibet. On gold you have to win 8 flips to win the biggest prize. If you are at 50/50, odds 2 to win a flip, the odds to win the big prize are 255:1. Since there is only one prize, this will never happen with 50/50. If it was set with 50/50, statistic you will have a top prize winner for every 256 games that are not stopping earlier than the top prize. And I am sure that also top prize 2,3,4 have also very low number of prizes set.It's strange how you can believe they are giving so many top prizes...Can you point out who made the claim that there is one out of two chance to win the big ticket when at the first flip? It is such an absurd statement that you might need to think about your own logic before positing it into others mouth.There are several posts explaining that each stage of flip has 50% chance of winning, assuming normal 52 card deck. Omahahaha made a claim that it is not so. I do not know for sure. I'm just going by the same graphics as in the poker.I cannot understand how you can genuinly make such a mix up even after it has been explained and probabilities of a flip should be common knowledge among poker players. I hope you are trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 @FunckyFish Where have you read there is only one top prize, I think you may be mistaken.:wonder: "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stubbe-Unibet Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The Santa penalty promo isn't the same as santa flips :) A flip is a flip, also in the context of this promo. And there's no such limit as mentioned above :) 1 Check the latest poker release notes. Have a look at our poker promotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunckyFish Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Sorry, my mistake with only one top prize. @Stubbe-Unibet can you offer us some real stats after promo will finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marco182 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 No way that the Santa Filps are 50:50 or maybe i run insanly bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P0kerM0nk Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just out of curiosity, what do people aim for when doing these flips? Do you guys just keep flipping trying to win the top prize or aim for anything else?I just flip till I get to the 3rd one and cash in the (40/400) bonus points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marco182 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I cant win in the first step but only flipped like 15 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GR1ZZL3R Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I haven't played any of this series yet, I tend to save them and then have a binge session. Normally I'll go for three flips in a row to start with and then depending on how many left try to better it and save the fourth, increasing my bravery, or foolhardiness, as I go on. The last time I played Santa said to me " Did you win six flips or five? Being this is the most annoying deck in the world and will blow your stack clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?" 2 "It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stubbe-Unibet Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 @Marco182 wrote:I cant win in the first step but only flipped like 15 timesYou've won the first flip 5 times, and it doesn't really make sense to comment on the probability with such a small sample size :) 1 Check the latest poker release notes. Have a look at our poker promotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickleman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 If it were true that the prize was always double what you started with, you should be indifferent to flipping - it would be just a 50:50 gamble on doubling your prize.However, some stages give you more than double: so when you've got 40 bonus points for example, the next flip is for 1e hexapro. That's more than double your money so it's rational to flip.The prizes increment like this - more than doubling every now and then - all the way to the top. In other words, if you assume you had infinite flips, it would always be rational to gamble - the highest prize is the highest ROI.BUT, you don't have infinite flips, so it's a risk of ruin problem. These problems are pretty complicated mathematically (I had to google the formula because I couldn't work it out myself )*. So instead of working out the optimum stage to aim for given how many flips you have, it's best just to pick a "more than double" prize target stage you're comfortable with (based on the number of flips you have and how gambly you're feeling) and keep flipping till you reach it, then cash out.* if anyone is interested in the maths, knock yourself out https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/364038/expected-number-of-coin-tosses-to-get-five-consecutive-heads 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickleman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The cliff's notes from that link I posted is that you should expect to win five flips in a row once every 62 trials.and also:wins in a row. expected no. of flips to hit1 22 63 145 6210 2046 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardGain Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 hi!I was running bad in those flips until today when I managed to bag 440 bonus points with 1x golden token + 3x bronze tokens Its not a million, but at least something to play with :) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marco182 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 I have to take the first step and that is mostly not happen because of the rng of the SantaFlips ;) This Promotion makes me angry and i dont know why i take part of it, no way someone can get above 4-5 steps impossible. Bit i am happy that the rng of the santa flips is not like the rng of the cashgame :) :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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