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Flips with santa claus


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I ask knowledgeable people to explain how flips with Santa Claus go? Let's say I won the first 3 flips in a row and lost 4, the result is reset to 0 or remains in the same position. And do you need to somehow fix your winnings or is it automatically credited?
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@Omahahaha wrote:


@EatMoreNaga wrote:

You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize.


It has been stated in previous years that the chance is not 50/50 but decreases with each step.


I believe that's an example of gambler's fallacy @Omahahaha  If you win 3, 4 or 5 50/50 flips in a row then your chances of winning another 50/50 flip stay the same, neither increasing or decreasing. It's the same in roulette, just because 10 blacks have appeared in a row doesn't make it more likely that red is due next. 😃

"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

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I am sure that the chances are lower than 50% after 4-5 steps. Of course in coin flip or roulette it's the same 50/50, but here you have steps for bigger prizes. Let's say you reach 5th step here 100 times. If it's 50/50 for 6th step,  that means you win the flip and go to 6th step 50 times. It will never will happen this :)

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@FunckyFish  The chances being lower or higher than 50/50 on any step that is set as a 50/50 chance is not possible, no matter how many have been won or lost in a row, the size of the prize is irrelevant. The odds could only be changed beforehand if the game is set up to not be fair, not 50/50, I'm certainly not going down that particular rabbit hole. 😃

"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

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50/50 doesnt mean that you win 5 and lose 5 every time you play 10 games. I'm not the best to explain theoretical stuff but the closest you will get to 50/50 is when you run the games infinitely. It's like poker variance in general, you can go all in with AA vs KK and your equity is about 82% but that does not mean you are going to win every 4 out of 5 runs. You can lose 10 in a row and you can win 10 in a row but if you would run games infinitely it will be close to 82%.

Also chances don't decrease after each win with the santa flips, it stays 50/50 chance of you winning the next flip. The chance of you on keeping winning flips in a row on the other hand will decrease the longer you go ahead. If that makes sense.

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It's only  one 1100 ticket and for sure bigger prizes are only few. If it was 50/50, a lot of people were winning 1100  euro tickets and other big prizes. Each category has a certain number of prizes set by Unibet. 

On gold you have to win 8 flips to win the biggest prize. If you are at 50/50, odds 2 to win a  flip, the odds to win the big prize are 255:1.  Since there is only one prize, this will never happen with 50/50. If it was set with 50/50, statistic you will have a top prize winner for every 256 games that are not stopping earlier than the top prize. And I am sure that also top prize 2,3,4 have also very low number of prizes set.

It's strange how you can believe they are giving so many top prizes...

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@Omahahaha wrote:


@EatMoreNaga wrote:

You exchange a win for a 50% chance to win a higher prize.


It has been stated in previous years that the chance is not 50/50 but decreases with each step.


I missed that info. Any chance you have link for that. It would mean the game is not run on top of the same RNG and game mechanics as poker, but would be a slot with no simulated 52 card deck. I'm just going by the assumption each deal is the same as in the poker.

 

 

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@FunckyFish wrote:

It's only  one 1100 ticket and for sure bigger prizes are only few. If it was 50/50, a lot of people were winning 1100  euro tickets and other big prizes. Each category has a certain number of prizes set by Unibet. 

On gold you have to win 8 flips to win the biggest prize. If you are at 50/50, odds 2 to win a  flip, the odds to win the big prize are 255:1.  Since there is only one prize, this will never happen with 50/50. If it was set with 50/50, statistic you will have a top prize winner for every 256 games that are not stopping earlier than the top prize. And I am sure that also top prize 2,3,4 have also very low number of prizes set.

It's strange how you can believe they are giving so many top prizes...


Can you point out who made the claim that there is one out of two chance to win the big ticket when at the first flip? It is such an absurd statement that you might need to think about your own logic before positing it into others mouth.

There are several posts explaining that each stage of flip has 50% chance of winning, assuming normal 52 card deck. Omahahaha made a claim that it is not so. I do not know for sure. I'm just going by the same graphics as in the poker.

I cannot understand how you can genuinly make such a mix up even after it has been explained and probabilities of a flip should be common knowledge among poker players. I hope you are trolling.

 

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I haven't played any of this series yet, I tend to save them and then have a binge session. Normally I'll go for three flips in a row to start with and then depending on how many left try to better it and save the fourth, increasing my bravery, or foolhardiness, as I go on. 

The last time I played Santa said to me " Did you win six flips or five? Being this is the most annoying deck in the world and will blow your stack clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?"

clint eastwood punk GIF

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"How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

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If it were true that the prize was always double what you started with, you should be indifferent to flipping - it would be just a 50:50 gamble on doubling your prize.

However, some stages give you more than double: so when you've got 40 bonus points for example, the next flip is for 1e hexapro. That's more than double your money so it's rational to flip.

The prizes increment like this - more than doubling every now and then - all the way to the top. In other words, if you assume you had infinite flips, it would always be rational to gamble - the highest prize is the highest ROI.

BUT, you don't have infinite flips, so it's a risk of ruin problem. These problems are pretty complicated mathematically (I had to google the formula because I couldn't work it out myself 😃)*. So instead of working out the optimum stage to aim for given how many flips you have, it's best just to pick a "more than double" prize target stage you're comfortable with (based on the number of flips you have and how gambly you're feeling) and keep flipping till you reach it, then cash out.

* if anyone is interested in the maths, knock yourself out 🤣 https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/364038/expected-number-of-coin-tosses-to-get-five-consecutive-heads

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The cliff's notes from that link I posted is that you should expect to win five flips in a row once every 62 trials.

and also:

wins in a row.                  expected no. of flips to hit

1                                       2

2                                       6

3                                       14

5                                       62

10                                     2046 

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I have to take the first step and that is mostly not happen because of the rng of the SantaFlips ;)

This Promotion makes me angry and i dont know why i take part of it, no way someone can get above 4-5 steps impossible.

 

Bit i am happy that the rng of the santa flips is not like the rng of the cashgame :) :)

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