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GR1ZZL3R'S Diary Of A Fun Punter


GR1ZZL3R

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POKER

Very little to report on the poker front except to say that I've virtually stopped playing. It got so bad that I even missed updating my ticket haul.

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I'm basically only playing the UK and UO tour satties, as and when ticket dates become a little shorter. If I do win any finals they will be kept for the live events only, playing them online is not the reason I started on the satellite trail. The cash ticket I had from the points rewards is being played at a snails pace, virtually just keeping it alive, and I'm wondering about the world record for keeping a ticket, actually playing at least one circuit a day, actually seeing at least one flop a day.:Wonder:

179803147_Screenshot(2743).thumb.png.84a6ff578399033dcacfaac6407fc34c.pngAbout three weeks so far. :Thumbsup: 

BETTING

It looks like we may see a bit more action now, horseracing starting tomorrow and Premier League in a couple of weeks to add to the Bundesliga and other events.

I won't be diving in too quickly to start, preferring to see how things start off, quite a few draws and away wins in Germany, and the fitness levels of players and horses alike will have to be assessed for a while.

ROULETTE

This month has been nothing short of amazing as far as results are concerned. I cleared the bonus by playing one session a day, till a win, then running for cover. I had one particularly bad day when I went off on a flight of fancy, thinking I'd spotted something worthwhile pursuing but commonsense luckily kicked in before I destroyed all the good work. I accepted a loss and got back to business the following day.

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Roughly half an hour a day playing, about fifteen hours in total, £1,250 wagered, £522 profit, 41.76%, but 2-3 hours daily researching and checking. That's becoming a little bit too much like an obsession for my current unhealthy lifestyle, so I've slowed down on that front.

I withdrew a good chunk from the other casino a couple of weeks ago (my birthday treat) and have used that account for some more speculative attempts, swinging from £200 down to £10 and clawing back to hover around £100, and I'll probably continue to play around there with various efforts. I'll withdraw some from here as a safety net then plan to push on, maybe going for two wins a day if I manage to build again. At least if it all comes crashing down I've had a good run and been able to lock in some good profits. :Thumbsup:

ROCKY and ROCKY 2

No real progress as the sourcing of suitable material continues to be a problem. I've planted the two small trees just so there's actually something to look at, but otherwise nothing else to report. 

OTHER NEWS

Ten or eleven weeks of lockdown now, I've lost count. Too much Y-Tube and television (bad) but more reading (good) and the excellent weather means more contact and chats with the neighbours (good and bad.) The lockdown restrictions being eased is good but I won't be rushing out to crowded places anytime soon, and have taken up magic again, especially with cards, just for something different to do. Rather than "close up magic" I'm practising "social distancing magic," it lets you get away with a little bit more. :Rofl:

Enough for now, Run Good. :Thumbsup:

 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Guess which was my alias!

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Two and a half hours of solid play, over an hour nine handed on the FT, from 18 starters, the perfect example of why I love poker so much.:waterfall:

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Hello @GR1ZZL3R . I don't know the exact situation (stack sizes) and the player tendencies. But it is the stone cold bubble. Foldmehearty covers you and he is in middle position. I tried to quickly find this particular scenario in Dara's book, because I know you've read it. On page 34, second table ("Middle Position Shoving Ranges (Satellite with Six Seats)") it is a similar situation. It is not the stone cold bubble, so I actually believe that at the stone cold bubble your calling range should be even tighter. You are the button and in the table it is written, that you should only call with TT+. It is specifically written, that even the small blind cannot call with AKs, and you are calling with AKo here. I am just trying to help here! Maybe Foldmehearty was a maniac and shoving light, I don't know that. Good luck next time!

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Thanks for that @LeVsKaRa 

Yes I have read the book and find it very useful, but still there are a lot of scenarios to cover, and it's not easy to remember every specific situation, except to know you can't be messing about too much. It was the absolute bubble, five left and four tickets, and had been that way for some time, very tight and close, a few times one of the shorter stacks at risk and surviving. We were all fairly tight but the player on my right had been raising far more often than anyone else, being lucky once when short stacked and all in.  I'd been getting no hands to defend or attack with, having to shove lighter a few times as I'm sure everyone had to. It was just one of those situations where I felt these raises were coming far too often to be credible so fought back and found the bad news, this time he did have it. If I'd had JJ or QQ the result would have been the same. I was a bit upset but only for 5 minutes, I felt I'd done OK for an hours worth of final table play and my big hand was hit by a bigger one. I think we all played that hour quite OK so it wasn't like I was coolered by 74o or anything stupid, and will take some confidence going forward. The UK and UO satties are virtually the only poker I'm playing at the moment so Dara's book is going to be reread again, hopefully some more situations or specific hands will stick in the memory, I have to make them count. :scared:

Good Luck to us both, see you on the felt. 👍

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's been a pretty good week for a change, so time for an update.

POKER.

   I've virtually come to a halt on the poker front but just the odd highlight is keeping me freshened up, starting with a win in the (un)official community championship on Monday night. ( €35 😃) Totally unexpected but welcome nevertheless, a big morale booster, followed by a win on Thursday night in the UK €5 qualifier. This was after being down to last place, 3 x €50 tickets with 9 left, me lagging way behind. Two loose calls on my shoves and I was back in contention. These qualifiers seem to be  playing much tighter than they did over a year ago, maybe down to Dara's strategy book, but there are still plenty of players shoving or calling quite wide, definitely some when not necessary. 

   This is more or less the only poker I'm playing, not even going near the cash tables yet. I'm keeping my UK stock about level, and I've broken down the UO event tickets, all are now dated January or later for next year, simply because I want to play a live event, the original idea, rather than online.

   I've been gathering a few bonus points together, and looking at the schedule I may even buy some tickets and play some evening freeze out tourneys, certainly a bit later this year as the nights grow longer.

BETTING.

Out first round in the Hot bets community comp. Nothing new there. :teardrop:

   Both the horseracing and football betting has gone through an overhaul, and I've gone back to going for the non favourite value. I haven't intentionally backed an odds on horse for many years now, and getting fed up of backing losing favourite after losing favourite I've now sworn off those, (till the next time.) A slow start to the week but picked up the first winner on wednesday, followed by a 20/1 shot on thursday. This had been backed at 11/1 but Unibets best price offer does make a difference.😃 This also helped me take top spot in the ongoing racing comp, €20 of prizes. A winner on Saturday and profit ensured for the week, what's going on? :wow:

   I haven't been betting on the football recently, only making selections in another excellent community comp, the Supertoto. Osasuna was the latest shock result at 16/1, good enough for me to grab 3rd place and €35 of booty.  Seven out of the 8 prizewinners picked this, and nobody else.  It maybe a high risk strategy, but when it happens it's worth it. I'm going to start backing them when a new season starts.

ROULETTE

   I've not played much on Unibet except for a few testing sessions on the 10p automatic airball machine. I'm not sure if this does any good, because I've a feeling that these play differently from live wheels but haven't done enough tests or gathered enough data to come to any conclusions. There's reams and reams of debate out there about rng, prng, rng live wheels, live casino wheels, studio live dealers, algorithms, etc,etc,etc, some of it here, but the fact is I'm still making steady profits with my main strategy on another site. This is all done with observation only, searching for those elusive patterns that we seem hard wired to think are out there but mostly remain tantalisingly out of reach. I'm waiting for the crash to happen, but so far so good.

ROCKERY

   There may be something to report in a week or two, plans are afoot.

OTHER NEWS

   Huddersfield Town virtually ensured their survival in the championship with a win over promotion chasing W.B.A. :happy::happy:

   Happy days for a nice change hope it lasts. :wonder:

Good luck all and run good. 👍

 

 

 

 

 

 

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@Merenitsu  I think I understand what your saying but I only ever play 1 table at a time, and I only play single numbers. It's the same philosophy as betting short priced favourites on the horses, it's very difficult to make a profit. There are thousands of systems out there for betting the even money chances, as far as I can see none of them work, maybe in the short term but not consistently enough, and eventually the bankroll comes under serious threat. Straight up (single numbers) are the only way to go imo. One small step at a time.😃

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  • 3 weeks later...

IRREGULAR UPDATE

POKER

There's not much to report really as I'm playing very little. I'm still enjoying the (un)official community poker championship and took a second one in a row for €40 but the number of entries were going down every week. Now there's a bit more of an official feel to it and the possibility of a leader board I hope it starts to grow a bit, I like the chat on stream so it feels more like a fun occasion.

I've been building up the roll of UK €1 tickets to 100 in the flips and freerolls so intend to play many more of those this month, see if I can get more played and some sort of strike rate to look at. I haven't added them to the mountain which is still staying reasonably stable.The UO is still on hold.

1003387775_Screenshot(3415).png.cb3de16644f1824aeb34f0a43e7d8344.png 

The bonus points are building up so it's still the plan to play some evening tourneys, but not just yet.

BETTING

The horse racing is progressing steadily, a great start in week 1 then two small losses, so holding well. I've used a couple of freebets on the football but no joy, still some longer term ones outstanding.

ROULETTE

A bit of a trauma last week on UB with a disconnection making me click the rebet button, the bets came up and they must have been doubling eachtime. Frantic smashing of the cancel button did no good and I virtually lost my profits in one hit, but I'm still going strong on other sites if a bit more carefully.

ROCKERY

More or less completd, though not quite as I intended. Larger rocks and pebbles are either too expensive or difficult to come by, so I settled for some smaller gravel. I'm quite happy with it though as it's more fluid and I can rearrange it as and when it suits.

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That's it for the time being, good luck and run well in all your challenges. :Smile:

 

 

 

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Thanks @MetalWolf Still locked down here, there's a local outbreak, so not much going on outside the computer or garden. Hoping to make a break for the coast over the weekend with locked down familly members. I don't see you much on the site these days, a couple of UK qualifiers last week, are the tiny terrors keeping you busy? 😃

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@GR1ZZL3R 

Yeah mate between them and work there is very little time to do anything else at the moment. Also house hunting but I'm really missing poker at the moment. Got a few city breaks coming up over the next month taking advantage of low prices. We keep getting threatened with a local lockdown too it's on the rise round here. I'm optimistic that by the time the next UOS comes round I may have more time for poker. This year seems a bit of a write off for the majority of people but I can't wait to get back on the tables and back to some Unibet live events when that becomes possible. 

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I was 6th out of 8 when my neighbour called to go shopping.

709386569_Screenshot(3473).thumb.png.487545f363823e4217d62564a62819c9.png

Just imagine what I could have done if I'd been playing. 😀

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe 7th. 🤣

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  • 3 weeks later...

A steady month for me so let's get some perspective on it.

POKER

The UK ticket stack is back growing steadily though I'm still not playing a huge amount. From 22 x UK €1 played  I've made 10 x €5, 3 x €1 tickets and a marvellous €0.50 cash, a pretty consistent strike rate, and still having 103 x €1 tickets left. These keep coming from the UK centroll and freerolls, with some €5 tickets as well, so the base is being maintained and the upwards trend is continuing. 😃 

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I bought 3 x €12 cash tickets for the UB slot promo but haven't really played much. Every session seems to go the same way, I get in front a bit then an all in comes up, and wether I'm ahead or behind it always seems to go the same way, badly. :Teardrop:  My QQ is just as happy losing to KK as it is to 99, there's nothing I can do about it except play on. I've also tried the sng's as well, bought 30 x €1 tickets, but the same story seems to happen, 1 win and 5 seconds so far from 13 played, 4 out of 5 heads up losing when ahead. :Teardrop:

ROULETTE

This maintains an astonishing consistency. I'm experimenting on the 10p airball machine, and though from my figures it doesn't come up with quite the same sorts of sequences as the live studio or live casino feed tables it's near enough. I occasionally have a session where I try to break my method, but with only using 10p bets and not progressing over 50p it's holding up very well. I'm still playing on the other site and have just over £500 to withdraw this month. :Thumbsup:😃

HORSERACING AND BETTING

The horseracing is my first love so now that I've settled into a bit of consistency on that front I'm more than pleased. The fact I'm going for higher odds means of course longer losing runs, but again using a small progression when a bit down can pull it round, and an odd winner here and there is more than helpful. I'm going to have a go on the Premier League as soon as that starts, maintaining an Against The Crowd approach and go for the draws. I think that's where the value lies as most punters seem to back their "own" team regardless of odds, so I'll see if I can spot some value.

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That's it for now, steady progress on all fronts and a continual plodding forward. Good luck all. :Thumbsup:

 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Another Quarter about to start so time for some serious reviewing.

POKER

I've played quite a bit more this last month and intend to put much more volume in over the winter months. The main focus as usual will be the UK and UO tours, but as there's no news of live tours starting up any time soon I'm thinking of going for the next online versions, probably just the UK for now and keeping the UO tickets for next year. I've played about 60 of the €1 UK qualifiers, not a great amount, and kept my ticket stack rising steadily. I'm winning a €5 ticket around 1 in 3 attempts, plus the odd €1 back and some tiny cashes, still having about 80 of the €1 left, so no need for any restocking. I'm only playing the €5 as tickets expire, occasionally using one to top up the €1, playing all the UK specials, which keeps adding to the pile, and am registered in this Saturday's €50 version, so fairly comfortable progress.

I played all 30 of the €1 sng tickets and pretty much broke even, paying cash I would have lost a couple of euros while letting 3 of them expire.:teardrop: Bad management. I don't know why, but I just don't seem to run as well in these as the qualifiers, I know it's only very small samples and I'm reading of others struggles, so I'm leaving them alone for a while.

I lost one of the €12 cash tickets but have kept the other 2 going, though very slowly. No rush at all. 

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I've enjoyed the community tourneys on a monday nights, especially the chat, and managed to hang onto a place on the leaderboard for a few bonus points, but still haven't bagged that elusive bounty.:teardrop:

I'm definitely going to play more tournaments, starting with freezeouts as low as possible and just see how they go.

BETTING

The horseracing came to an abrupt halt, it's one of those things that seems to happen from time to time that just messes with your mind, wondering wether it's worth bothering with.

I'd had a good start and built up profits steadily, but then hit the losing run, an occupational hazard that we all have to deal with, especially so due to the prices I was betting at. I did the usual, picked the three for the day, then got interrupted by a fairly important phone call. Ultimately this took some dealing with and as a result I didn't post my picks. Of course the inevitable happened, and going through the results that night, well guess what. A 28/1 winner, unbacked. Disappointed. Shattered. Fuming. 😠 The next morning I went through the process but with a heavy heart and my head not fully focussed. After 15 minutes, with 2 picks made I gave up, couldn't be bothered. Why torture myself, that was the big chance of recouping losses gone. Why me? Of course one of them won, 18/1. :waterfall:  And then I made it to day 3 of the Hot Picks, my bet won, posted day four's pick, was informed I hadn't posted day 3, out of the comp, day 4 pick won. What can you do? Grin and bear it. Really. Maybe it wasn't #0lucky, just carelessness on my part. Whatever. Que sera, sera. C'est la vie. It is what it is. S❤️❤️t happens.

The quest will continue..............................when I get round to it.

Luckily? I didn't start betting the draws in the PL, 2 out of 28 so far wouldn't have been a great start, and I've been reading a couple of books on betting strategy. Just when you think you know a bit about betting something comes along that makes you have a rethink.

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"More usually punters stay away from draws being as they are largely random in nature. Quite how one might go about looking for solid reasons to forecast a draw in a league match is to my mind a complete mystery"

That's telling me then!

However..........................

"Loss chasing is mathematically flawed and there is no getting around that fact.........................if you are good enough to beat the bookie with level stakes, you will never need to chase losses, and if you aren't, it will never work."

....................I'm not wholly on board with that one.  Time will tell.

ROULETTE

A bad run on the UB airball table has been overcome by maintaining profits on the live dealer table on the other site. The more I go through the stats the more I know that all the different types of tables have their own figures, and playing the same way on each type can bring very different results. I'm spending too much time trying to look at all the stats so will stick to the ones I know.

 

SCARBOROUGH LILLIES ROCK

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My neighbour ( not the borrowing one ) decided he didn't like the ivy growing all over his fence so cut it all down, making my little plot look bare and neglected, so some work will have to be done next year to upgrade.

OTHER NEWS

A holiday in Malta has been booked but I'm still waiting for my passport :Wonder: and the clock is ticking. :Scared:

 

 

Run Good. :Thumbsup:

 

  • Like 11

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@Merenitsu I think what he's trying to say is that most punters expect one team or another to win and tend to bet that way, and trying to pick matches that end up as a draw is quite random and therefore not a profitable proposition. My point of view was that for that very reason draws tend to be overpriced and therefore there might be value in them, but as yet I've not done enough research.

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@Merenitsu wrote:

@GR1ZZL3R 

yesterday I analyzed the last 2 seasons. The number of draws is less than the number of wins or losses. Even if we take into account that 2 teams get a draw, everything turns out exactly less. Therefore, the guys correctly bet on one of the teams to win 😃


@Merenitsu wow and analysis was needed for that?  I will tell you the secret: win/3points , draw/1point. Without analysis, I can say that in the time of 2points/win there was much more draws🆒 

 

"Small opportunities are often the beginning of great enterprises."
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@Merenitsu wrote:

@GR1ZZL3R 

yesterday I analyzed the last 2 seasons. The number of draws is less than the number of wins or losses. Even if we take into account that 2 teams get a draw, everything turns out exactly less. Therefore, the guys correctly bet on one of the teams to win 😃


@Merenitsu  That is a very basic analysis but it simply doesn't go anywhere deep enough.

What % of draws were there? What prices were the matches that were draws? Were these "shocks" at big prices or normal odds? Did the lowere tor higher teams draw more against each other? What was the longest run of matches without a draw? Was a specific price or higher profitable? Do one or more teams consistently draw more matches over the long term? 

These and maybe more questions need asking before any conclusions can be made, I'm afraid betting by statistics can't simply be done just by looking at the overall picture, a lot of digging has to be done. Last season Manchester City appeared to be the team to follow for shock results, and this season seems to have started off in similar fashion, but will the trend continue or is it a blip? 

The guy that beat the Hong Kong Tote in horseracing eventually had over 200 variables in his algorithms. I don't think football needs that many but you never know! 😃

 

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Ups and Downs.

First up, €1 UK qualifier.

1689499361_Screenshot(179).thumb.png.2512dd289d0d5b0ac7f5e07ad1df50f5.pngYou can't really ask for a better start.

1759758772_Screenshot(180).thumb.png.3e00ee8edc7e7008481370062836e0bb.pngNo offers on the house.

668355100_Screenshot(181).thumb.png.7bcdb011463d9ac55eeb3d46f4c71224.pngNo takers.

1384925856_Screenshot(182).thumb.png.68250010a36ebb466aad7aed7760c9b4.png Villain had just lost a decent pot when his bluff didn't work, the default is to shove any 2 in anger, so I reckoned he didn't have much. I would never have been surprised to see another heart but the turn was good.

562611622_Screenshot(183).thumb.png.76468557f6c1213ef2c76db7a2abcaf5.pngAvoided the curse.

988404983_Screenshot(184).thumb.png.e99f6488a31fe606beab4645f0ce5545.pngTrips again but no takers.

1687155093_Screenshot(185).thumb.png.56b2540fed2201f030e854cc58c5c0b3.pngTwo pairs is my bogey hand, a standard result here, win a small pot or go broke.

1420055300_Screenshot(191).thumb.png.87f6aa81adfb0e035881c57da7a5b8bf.pngTwo sleepers, one of them our friend ElronSimpson, so three playing for two tickets. A slightly bigger raise usually means they don't want calling, so I do.

297146344_Screenshot(192).thumb.png.aabc98f8c785f4f9a1f67025e3ca407b.pngIs it a good or bad flop?  Should I bet? My default is try not to go bust when there are sleepers.

1698308709_Screenshot(193).thumb.png.4a6bf13e08e77c66ff80d7a8765a6f91.pngI didn't really think about this, if it's a terrible river I can fold and still be in a good position. 

1601216801_Screenshot(194).thumb.png.7e69d195bdea2e4b805c72ad6100c5c7.pngAnd there it is, about a 0.000035 second delay before I call, just enough time to think if he's got 6 of diamonds it will be the first time I've ever seen straight flush over straight flush, something to write about anyway.

554381961_Screenshot(195).thumb.png.3194cac153c9e9031fe2c59f8d956954.png

1609971210_Screenshot(188).thumb.png.adade36d455ac4abb85df5c649a6f1ec.pngElron beat me in a hand!

877666544_Screenshot(189).thumb.png.51924b07f7806ffe62171baeb0959bb3.pngAnd a very carefully played hand.

25850432_Screenshot(190).thumb.png.eec64317fd0a037e2c9f88a76c760cce.pngAnd it's all over, but not for the day!

 

 

995394783_Screenshot(201).thumb.png.d9b07b6c9c9eb5526ac4e9d570364ad3.pngThis had gone raise and 3bet, I folded pre and thought what a story that would have been, 2 straight flushes in a day..................................................

.............................................................................however the day was not done.

 

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Sadly I didn't get paid on this one and ultimately bust on the bubble, the usual all ins with better hands being beaten. :Teardrop:

An interesting day though.

As a side note I won 3/4 football bets, guess which team let me down, and hit two 14/1 winners on the horses, test running a new idea, so not a bad day overall. :atisfied:

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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@Dennis__  It's amazing to think that no matter what we've got how rarely we know we have the nuts. I've of course won and lost house over house and house to quads but never lost with quads or straight flush* though seen examples of them. There is a st fl over st fl in the sick hands section here.

 

*Now I've said that it's just a matter of time. 🤣

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"It turns out that 75% of all poker players think they play better than the other 75%."     image.png.99a4e82708d54abfc527324e8836768e.png

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