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Daliy Picks - 26/07/16


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Hey community,

it's a new day, it's time to make another mistake. I'm sure most of you like the song of Roxette: Listen to your heart. But only few number of people know the uncesored lyrics ... and lost your money.

FK Partizani Tirana - FC Red Bull Salzburg (UEFA Champions League Qualifier)

Well, it seems like an easy bet. I've never heard about the home team and Salzburg's name sounds very familiar.  I will pick the away team and be happy with the 1.44 odds.

Nobody likes a draw heavy board against him! A fixture above should rings a bell, because:

  1. You don't know anything about one of the teams or only've heard the name of the favourite but don't know anything about the current form/team/injuries/suspended players etc.  Salzburg is not such a big team like Real/Chelsea/PSG/Bayern so don't use them like a "surebet" (ok I know what surebet means I use it like a "bet-what-simply-gives-a-greater-odds-to-my-betting-slip here)
  2. You can underestimate the weather conditions: It will be a sunny day with around 33° degree. That's what I call heat and players are people too. They know this is only a first part of the duell and the season is very long. They aren't in top from in July.
  3. You can underestimate the fatigue. Salzburg played 3 games in the last 11 days (Cup, CL, Bundesliga) and they were the away team in all matches. So maybe they hadn't enough time for recovery.
  4. You can underestimate the team building phase. New players need time to due their best (Wanderson will miss the match). Don't forget it was a fancy summer with EURO2016 (Hinteregger) and there is an injury list (Yabo, Prevljak, Miranda, Leitgeb, Sörensen, Lainer(?), Rzatkowski(?)) too.
  5. Don't be cracked with interviews. If you read "all teams who qualified to this stage are strong and a though opponent and we respect the result of the previous round" like this you should know it's a bvllsh*t. That means either We don't have many information about the opponent so we will try to play a basic game and we will see what happens, or The opponent is weak but we don't want to hurt them.
  6. Don't forget the lucky seat effect. Partizani (albanian vice master) has started their European Throphy hunting in the European League but after the first match against Slovan (0:0) the UEFA committee has transferred them to the UEFA CL due to the betting fraud of  the champion Skënderbeu. In the previous round they played with Ferencváros (1:1 in booth matches) and qualified with penalites to the next round. They have a massive defensive team with a good italian coach (Adolfo Sormani, who was the assistant coach of Watford). I think safety first won't be a pure phrase this time.

What to do?

My pick is the under 2,5 goals for 1,72. Michael Oliver will be the referee (36 games 131yellow 9 red cards) so if you are brave enough you can choose the over 4 yellow cards and the Will there be a red card?-yes option too. Cheers.


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Partizani played against Ferencvaros in the first round. They do what Albania known for, they are very defensive, and they do it well. Actually they beat the hungarian team (as an underdog) in penalties. but you know how? The first penalty was taken by the goalkeeper (!), who is the only known player in their squad, and score with panenka-style. Full of selfcomfident, and this gave them the power to manage the shootout. 

So because they are at home and very defensive, very comfident team, i dont suggest any bet against them. And look at Salzburg`s terrible form... The under seems the best option. 

Wish you luck today!

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