Daily Picks-25/07/16

[psrquack]

Hey all,

I picked a very interesting game for today:

Daria Gavrilova-Annika Beck (WTA Monteal, First round):

This game is a great sample of the nobody knows who will win it games. You can win a lot of money of this type of games, but be careful if you don't have good instincts that gametypes could be your archenemy too.

Tell me why?

1. Odds are equal (1.72 vs 2.00) that means even the oddsmakers have no clue what will happen during the game.
2. Booth players are good but not the best (WTA ranking 45. vs. 39.)
3. H2H history contains only one previous meeting and that was at 2012 (WTA, Moscow, Daria Gavrilova-Annika Beck 2:6, 1:6)
4. It's RIO time and lot of players are preparing for the Olympics and dropping other WTA events (expect the Grand Slams) or focusing for the Olympics and only play the major tours because they don't want to lose too much ranking points. That means more surprises or one sided games are in the are.
5. Montral is a hardcourt turney and noone of the players played on this surface in the last months. Gavrilova got a long break (last match a month ago) and Beck tried to find her glory on clay (last match 3 days ago).
6. Gavrilova have a better service game but she is focusing for RIO and due to the lack of recent matches she need some time to show her best performance. Beck played a lot of claycourt games but her last match in Gastad, Sweden was an easy defeat and there is still a jetlag after flying from Sweden to Canada. Gavrilova is in Montreal since 20th of July.

My tip: I think it will be a one sided match and the number of games will be under 21,5 for 1,86. If you have some time you I stongly offer you to use livebet for this game. Cheers.

[gillvs77]

 you suggest livebet. what do you have in mind to play on it then?

To see begin of match and then place bet on winner (becos you expect a one sided match) or under on games after match has started or something else ?

after reading a little bit about it; remember Beck has better matchrythm and is playing well lately, but change clay->hardcourt danger, Gavrilova should normally be the better one on hardcourt

[psrquack]

Livebet: I try to predict a result of a short period. Fe: I a watched a weather forecast it will be around 27°C and maybe some rain. 27°C is not an extreme heat so I shouldn't count with it during the match. Rain: hardcourt and water aren't the best friends, if rains play will be stopped. Who of booth players can handle the short/long break better? Want a player finish the set/period before the rain starts (if she see the clouds would she change her playing style or not) or she believes in her abilities and keep playing her game? Coach: What is the rules of the coaches? If it is allowed to coach a player during the game will she follow the tactics of the coach or not? If they speaking in english each other what can you understand about it? A couple of years ago was the so-called Wozniacki-affair in which Caroline's father told to his daugther that the current match is not so important the next week's one is more important. Wozniacki have had a medical injury. A couple of minutes later Caroline decided to give up the match. Precision: if a player operates with long balls and her playing style is based on strong returns ans shots around the base line you have to watch what procent of her shots going in/out. In that case if Gavrilova's shots are good in 80-85% she will be able to "push-out" Beck from the court and win points easily. If not she may collapse and lost. But that you can't predict without watching a game.

About Beck's performance: She lost of her last 2 claycourt tourneys against Masarova (WTA-rank: 313.) and Larsson (WTA-rank: 70.). That's why I wrote that's a hard to predict match.

[cris1285]

If something is hard to predict, why dont you just leave it? 

About live bet: if you see that is a closer game, but somebody has a 3-0 lead with only one brek, it is always better to bet on over. The line should move from 20,5 to 19,5 or most probably 18,5 what is way better value for over. Thats what i use to do, and love to do at WTA events. Payout is really good on it :smileytongue:

[psrquack]

Because I really want to improve my prematch predicting skill and I think per aspera ad astra is the best way to do it. My second task it to find an example for all types of hard matches too. And third I want to improve my how many points/goals/tries etc can be in 1 unit of time skill with the combination of under/over games too.

[Magicadil]

You can also bet on a player if they're up a break in a set, even if you don't think they'll win the match. Then if they do win the set, you can cashout and make a decent profit. (This works best with massive underdogs)

[psrquack]

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@Magicadil wrote:

You can also bet on a player if they're up a break in a set, even if you don't think they'll win the match. Then if they do win the set, you can cashout and make a decent profit. (This works best with massive underdogs)

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I like the over/under if there is a break and it seems that it will be another one. Fe: if there is 3:0 and a breaker is a big server it can be easily 5:0 and that odds is much greater than 4:1.

[Magicadil]

Here comes the rain Only thing I find annoying with betting on Tennis is all the delays.

[psrquack]

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@Magicadil wrote:

Here comes the rain Only thing I find annoying with betting on Tennis is all the delays.

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The French Open liked your comment.:catlol:

[psrquack]

Gavrilova won to 6-4, 6-3 over Beck after a couple of rain delays. It was a close game but my thought, who win the first set will win the second, occurred.