Let's gambooool on politics

[WuDu]

On 11/9/2021 at 6:26 PM, Livertool said:

Trump will be close if he is running but other than that, if you exclude him for low odds and obvious ones that will not be next president like Biden, Kamala, Dwayne, Clooney, Kanye etc, there could be good value for cash out bet if nothing else.

Problem is that i have no clue about possible underdogs. @WuDu i demand answers!!!!

 

On 11/9/2021 at 7:51 PM, WuDu said:

Out of your list and gambling on a potential cash-out without Trump: DeSantis at 15.00 or Ted Cruz at 51.00.

@Livertool

That should eliminate all other Republicans from the field (mainly DeSantis), so if you want to bet on an underdog, you'd have to pick one from the Democrats, but I don't see that happening as well.

[Livertool]

4 hours ago, WuDu said:

but I don't see that happening

I don't see Trump to be rep candidate. And if they want to win he shouldn't be. DeSantis could be one that gets votes from people who are middle, Trump lost last time lacking those votes and would lose again, even when he has now start kissing bottoms of latino voters 😄

Democrats are lacking good candidate and sleepy won't save them so good chance that reps win as long as Trump won't be their horse to create votes against him to democrats.

[WuDu]

4 hours ago, Livertool said:

I don't see Trump to be rep candidate. And if they want to win he shouldn't be. DeSantis could be one that gets votes from people who are middle, Trump lost last time lacking those votes and would lose again, even when he has now start kissing bottoms of latino voters 😄

 

Obama in 2008: 69.5 M total votes. Obama in 2012: 66 M total votes. A loss of 3,5 M votes.

Trump in 2016: 63 M total votes. Trump in 2020: 74 M votes. An increase of 11 M votes.

For the latino numbers, just look at Miami-Dade in Florida for instance:

Romney in 2012: 333 K.

Trump in 2016: 333K.

Trump in 2020: 533 K.

 

[Livertool]

48 minutes ago, WuDu said:

An increase of 11 M votes.

This just proves my point, despite increase he lost. Because sleepy was so popular? No but peeps voting against Trump.

53 minutes ago, WuDu said:

Romney in 2012: 333 K.

Trump in 2016: 333K.

Trump in 2020: 533 K

Don't know how well these are comparable due high rise of latino community in states (hence the butt kissing too)

[GR1ZZL3R]

Really looking forward to these fascinating 🥱🥱🥱 updates for the next two years!

[WuDu]

2 hours ago, Livertool said:

This just proves my point, despite increase he lost. Because sleepy was so popular? No but peeps voting against Trump.

 

Basically, you want to find your own version of a sleepy candidate, bore the general public to death to then somehow win the election? Basically parking the bus and play for the 0-0 and hope for a lucky bounce in the 89th minute? 😄

Again, if you look at the Miami-Dade numbers, Hillary Clinton in 2016 even received 7.000 votes more than Sleepy Joe. The problem is the massive voter fraud via mail in ballots and what Trump is going to do about it this time around. 

2 hours ago, Livertool said:

Don't know how well these are comparable due high rise of latino community in states (hence the butt kissing too)

 

Again, the question is who you count as "Hispanic" and where these people come from. A Mexican grandmother means you're 1/4 Hispanic, thus the high numbers. Next to open border immigration, of course.

Mexico and central America usually leans Democrat, Cuban and South American usually Republican.

Fresh out of the Rio Grande, likely Democrat, more established, maybe Republican?

2 hours ago, GR1ZZL3R said:

Really looking forward to these fascinating 🥱🥱🥱 updates for the next two years!

Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find.

 

[Livertool]

10 hours ago, WuDu said:

you want to find your own version of a sleepy candidate

Just telling my opinion of how do i see things will go, what i want is another thing. But sure when i vote, i don't vote for person or personality but things they run and how capable they would be on that position.

10 hours ago, WuDu said:

the question is who you count as "Hispanic" and where these people come from

For sure. Just pointed out that when hispanic numbers rise, whether just on paper or they actually are hispanic, then candidates will get more of their votes. Some more some less, haven't seen numbers but i'm pretty sure dems get their own share of them too, probly even more than reps.

 

10 hours ago, WuDu said:

The problem is the massive voter fraud via mail in ballots

Water under the bridge, happened or not, important to change voting laws that is can't be done and Trump ain't only one who can make it happen but dems won't do it so reps got to have winning horses to make difference.

[WuDu]

13 hours ago, Livertool said:

Just telling my opinion of how do i see things will go, what i want is another thing. But sure when i vote, i don't vote for person or personality but things they run and how capable they would be on that position.

You mean like this?

13 hours ago, Livertool said:

For sure. Just pointed out that when hispanic numbers rise, whether just on paper or they actually are hispanic, then candidates will get more of their votes. Some more some less, haven't seen numbers but i'm pretty sure dems get their own share of them too, probly even more than reps.

Like I mentioned in my Miami-Dade example: Trump gained 200 K and Sleepy even lost a few. That has nothing to do with a general increase in the Latino population.

13 hours ago, Livertool said:

Water under the bridge, happened or not, important to change voting laws that is can't be done and Trump ain't only one who can make it happen but dems won't do it so reps got to have winning horses to make difference.

A winning horse like the most popular sitting president in history (measured by the amount of votes received), you mean? The point is to come up with solutions to combat the blatant fraud, not playing a rigged game.

From a bettor's perspective, this could also be a source of value. Nobody sane thinks that Sleepy is doing a good job, meaning the Republicans are slighly favoured right now. If you gamble on Sleepy getting dragged along for two more years and then winning by fraud again, you could look at a nice payday. 

Currently Unibet has DeSantis at 3,00, Trump at 5,00 and Sleepy Joe at 5,5. The odds for DeSantis are false, I doubt he's even running. 

[Farseer]

I doubt Sleepy Joe will run, even more that he would be selected. I would bet against his win for office, but with high interest rates 12,5% winning settled in 2 years is not tempting.

He was a good politician (much better than Obama) during his VP era, but time has caught on him big time. Let him have nice pensioner days after 2024. He is turning 80 next month - many people like him have Alzheimer and it is nothing to be ashamed of.

[Livertool]

2 hours ago, WuDu said:

You mean like this

Yawn. Like said imo how things will roll, i was right last time and nothing tells that i would be wrong this time either. Will i place any money depends on many factors as still long time to go for elections. Might be wrong with my predictions but as i understood this thread it is about gambling politics hence gave my opinion.

[WuDu]

1 hour ago, Farseer said:

He was a good politician (much better than Obama) during his VP era, but time has caught on him big time. 

What specifically did you like about his VP days? Like when he was point man for the Ukraine in 2014? When ISIS formed? Letting Hunter fly on Air Force 2 to China and come back with 1,5 billions in investments?

43 minutes ago, Livertool said:

Yawn. Like said imo how things will roll, i was right last time and nothing tells that i would be wrong this time either. Will i place any money depends on many factors as still long time to go for elections. Might be wrong with my predictions but as i understood this thread it is about gambling politics hence gave my opinion.

Just mentioning that some Republicans already are running the @Livertool/Park the Bus strategy now. Pence showing up on CNN is one example.

With the way the odds are right now, I'd see value in betting on Trump 5,00 and hedging for voter fraud with Sleepy at 5,5. That would give you 2,5 in return (if you bet both options with the same amount) if you can wait 2 years for it. 

[Farseer]

@WuDuFor first, I hated how much glory which was not earned Obama got. He was completely no-one, who just got his positions without any credibility. Obama was a balloon which had 0 real earnings included. Obama was one of worst presidents USA had in my lifetime (I would have voted McCain without Sarah-fucking-Palin if entitled to).

Biden in my opinion is a honest man, with honesty and credibility. He has always been quite middle-positioned man, with reasonable political goals and better acumen than most politicians. If his worst crime to win his presidential position at a ripe age, I wouldn't count it against him.

As a centrist, I fucking hate US two-party system. I would vote for Buttigieg, and if opponent would be full-fledged idiot with possibility of nuclear war I would vote his opponent, no matter the party. Trump wasn't such idiot, though I would have voted Clinton in 2016 mostly due to his vice-presidential choice... Pence was a pile of rubbish religious shit I would never want to see become most powerful human on Earth.

[Livertool]

18 minutes ago, WuDu said:

I'd see value in betting on Trump 5,00 and hedging for voter fraud with Sleepy at 5,5. That would give you 2,5 in return (if you bet both options with the same amount) if you can wait 2 years for it. 

Wouldn't go either of them, sleepy will be in grave by 24 and if not, no way in hell even dems are so stupid that he is running. Trump? No. Just no. So i see value outside of them, but who is another question...

[Farseer]

While Biden is like "1%" to reach presidency Trump isn't far away either. He's too old, and too weak. DeSantis is better, but hopefully US can choose more centrist president this time.

And I really hope that democrats can find a new president. #Buttigieg24

 

[Livertool]

33 minutes ago, Farseer said:

hopefully US can choose more centrist president this time.

That is my hope and belief. Why? All that retard confrontation in there is spreading here too with whether it is kneeling in the name of blm or hillbilly vote deniers and none of them is what world needs. How about we speak things as they are?

Lastly i would hope that none use frase" still 2022" usually heard from lefties. Fking arrogant to think that we are better peeps than lets say 100 yers ago and there is legit proof of it. Sure education is better and more wide spread but as modern world shows same mistakes are made cosntanly.

[Farseer]

I really hope that that Buttigieg will be president.

At least he won't be making such a mess with some dress like Bill Clinton (which I consider best president of USA in my lifetime) did.

Though it didn't matter with Clinton. Neither should Buttigieg's personal preferences. We are past that.

[WuDu]

4 hours ago, Farseer said:

Biden in my opinion is a honest man, with honesty and credibility.

 

4 hours ago, Livertool said:

Wouldn't go either of them, sleepy will be in grave by 24 and if not, no way in hell even dems are so stupid that he is running. Trump? No. Just no. So i see value outside of them, but who is another question...

He might be a vegetable inside, but even despite all the plastic surgery, his body doesn't look like it's breaking down. Case in point:

Also, it's not like his mental retardation started all of a sudden while being in office. Calling it a day at 10:30 AM, eating dinner at 4:00 PM and going to bed at 5:30 with a cup of hot chocolate? Sure, but as long as they can, the Dems will ride him...

 

[Livertool]

23 minutes ago, WuDu said:

 

He might be a vegetable inside, but even despite all the plastic surgery, his body doesn't look like it's breaking down. Case in point:

Also, it's not like his mental retardation started all of a sudden while being in office. Calling it a day at 10:30 AM, eating dinner at 4:00 PM and going to bed at 5:30 with a cup of hot chocolate? Sure, but as long as they can, the Dems will ride him...

 

I'm not even sure what you are trying to do here but i said how it will go, imo, dont't care about your videos but do i have to go here at 2024 to say i told you so?

[Stubbe-Unibet]

Some people refuse to learn 😅 the thread is good entertainment 

[WuDu]

Now, will he come back or stay at Truth Social?