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Obviously supercup turned out as highscoring one(yet again) so that leaves with bankroll of 495€ but most importantly it looks like technical difficulties which i experienced in foreign country on friday ahead of first leaguegame of the season(where defending champions lost 0:2 at home to Paide therefore it probably was good thing that i couldn't bet on that match) are over so it's time to look forward to next game i guess.

 

Sunday in Meistriliiga: 

Tammeka - Maardu

12:00 CET

5€ bet: Tammeka -1 AH @2.21

Tammeka is quite solid at home but still even if they do get the positive result against weaker team then usually they have to work hard to get it cause for them it's better to be that team who is parking the bus against stronger team and doing it decently with their organized defense instead of actually controlling the game etc while trying to figure out how to break down opponents very tight defense ... After dominating in Esiliiga for the last 2 seasons Maardu have finally decided to try out that topflight football ... So it's probably intresting to see how they can cope with it... Teams have met twice in the competive games so far when back in 2013 & 2015 Tammeka won both cup games 5:1 - i doubt that we'll see similar score this time aswell but i 

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Well last weekend Tammeka definitely showed why they are usually struggling against weaker teams as 95+ min penalty saved them from losing first match of the season as it finished 2:2. So let's watch today's Esiliiga game is offering. :)

Flora II - Levadia II

18:00 CET

5€ on under 4 goals @1.83

Both teams started the new season with a defeat so now they are trying to get first win of the season(or atleast avoid second consecutive defeat) - clearly both sides are capable of scoring goals here but still basically story is the same like last year - whenever under 4 is available with decent odds you pretty much have to hope that for once both teams are better in defending than they are in attacking. I know that this match starts like in 45 minutes or so but i just waited until lineups are revealed to see whether they get any help from the first team... Answer to that is no and yeah sorry for getting this up so late. Anyway we'd see intresting game here so let's see how this goes ;)

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@Whoever wrote:

Well last weekend Tammeka definitely showed why they are usually struggling against weaker teams as 95+ min penalty saved them from losing first match of the season as it finished 2:2. So let's watch today's Esiliiga game is offering. :)

Flora II - Levadia II

18:00 CET

5€ on under 4 goals @1.83


Although there were 3 goals in the last 30 minutes this bet still won as Flora went on to win 3:0 :)

So now bankroll ahead of this weekend Meistriliiga games is 494.15€ 

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@Whoever wrote:

LIVEBET:

Kuressaare - Levadia

10€ on first half over 0.5 goals @1.53


Well that was obvious one... Kure hoped to get penalty when their striker was pushed to the ground by Levadia defender but referee didn't do anything and basically 60 seconds later we have same situation in other side of the pitch as after slight touch Levadia striker falls and earns penalty and ofcourse they convert it so Levadia goes to half time with  1:0 lead :)

Current bankroll: 499.45€

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Today in Meistriliiga: 

Paide - Flora

E: 12:00 CET

4.45€ on Flora -1 AH @2.01

Both teams started the season with 2:0 wins last weekend so they are trying to get another positive result this time aswell. Paide showed in the opening game of the season that they can play well against stronger teams and i assume that now at home they're trying to make another decent perfomance. Flora is definitely going to dominate the game and they'll get another difficult match i guess(otherwise could it be like walk in the park of them then my AH bet should win quite comfortably) - still teams have met 40 times in the league with Flora losing just once and winning 35 games. Usually in estonian league you don't see that eventual favourite' -1AH odds are so good in awaygame against weaker team.. I believe last season there were just 1 similar situation which i saw soon enough before odds dropped dramatically. Anyway i expect Flora to get 3p from this game.

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So european qualifiers start on thursday and in the same day there's this game(which is probably most intresting one): 

Northern Ireland - Estonia

Northern Ireland starts these qualifiers with 2 homegames against Estonia and Belarus so unless they screw something up then they'd have 6p in the bag before visiting Tallinn in june. It's the first official game between these teams since EURO2012 qualifiers where we won both matches (4:1 at home and 2:1 on the road) but i guess it's (sadly) safe to say that neither team isn't the same like 8 years ago ...

However since our last h2h game Northern Ireland have played 18 official games at home(W8D4L6) - they scored in 15 of them but managed to keep just 7 clean sheets. I'd say that luckily for them we are still quite bad away from home cause since our 2:1 win in Belfast we've played 19 competive awaygames(W3D4L12) - apart from these wins which were to nil we've managed to keep just 3 more clean sheets - all in games which ended goalless and during these 19 games we actually failed to score in 13 so no surprise there and what's even worse is that in EURO16 qualifiers we didn't score single goal in awaygames(even against San Marino) so definitely it can't get any worse ...

Like in our typical (away)game i expect that we are going to play in formation 5-4-1, have basically 9 men behind the ball while playing for goalless draw and once that plan has backfired we suddenly forgot that we'd actually take more risks while trying to get something from the game..

 

* right now i'm waiting whether one of our local bookies comes out with their usual offer during Estonia NT (away)game where you can put 3€ on Estonia to score over 0.5 goals with special odds @5  

If they dont do it for whatever reason then i'm probably going to bet against us while taking N. Ireland -1 AH @1.93 

So let's see. Perhaps i'm actually going with both these bets ... :)

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Well as N. Ireland AH odds have started to drop i guess i don't wait anymore whether my local bookie comea out their special offer or not ... Therefore here 2 bets for this game(i guess there's no chance at all that they both lose):

5€: Northern Ireland -1 AH @1.80

4.45€: Estonia to score over 0.5 goals @2.38

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Swedish cruise is over and now i can finally say that our team is still quite **** but at least Northern Ireland did their job so current BR is 499€ and considering our tuesday's opponent Gibraltar probably gets even worse result tonight then let's see on what i'm betting on that game. Hopefully odds for Gibraltar - Estonia come out today/tomorrow so i'd have chance for a closer look ;) 

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International friendly: 

Gibraltar - Estonia

20:45 CET

4€ on Estonia over 2.0 goals @2.08

Both teams lost their first qualifier to nil so it's quite obvious to suggest both teams are trying to get positive result from this match.. I guess we'll see atleast some rotation by either team here but this shouldn't change too much cause we're anyway going to dominate the game etc and clearly we're not good in it so we probably struggle against weaker team yet again.. In previous qualifying campaign we won both h2h games 4:0 and 6:0 - it'd be nice to see another freescoring game but should we manage to score just once then even this isn't too big surprise. Anyway we've scored in all 4 h2h games so far so i expect us to find the net this time aswell and hopefully we don't settle for 1 goal here and try to score more than Ireland ... 

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As for tuesday's game then i don't blame myself for being (way) too optimistic. Anyway let's move on as we'll have plenty of games in the next teams cause Meistriliiga teams are fortunate to play 3 matches in 7-day period.

Therefore on saturday in Meistriliiga:

Trans - Kalju

15:00 CET

5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.90

I'd say that neither team is particularly too happy with how they started the new season - Trans may be one of the 2 teams yet to concede after 2 games but just like their opponents then they have also dropped already points at home against weaker team.. And it don't get any easier for them - after hosting defending champions on saturday then they'll have another difficult homegame on wednesday when they're hosting Levadia.. Kalju meanwhile have lost more games this season than they managed last year but i guess defending the title is usually difficult in any domestic league.. Still after opening week's disappointment they won 5:0 in the second game just before international break. Despite the fact that for our usual topclubs Kalju-Flora-Levadia trips to east-estonia have always been difficult i expect Kalju to be fully focused here specially as they haven't won first h2h awaygame of the season in Narva since 2014... So unlike in the past few years i expect them this time to actually win first h2h awaygame of the season against Trans..

 

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Well on saturday Kalju showed exactly why our top clubs usually struggle in Narva as they dropped points yet again. So let's see what they can(or can't) do tomorrow.. Surely they aren't going to let me down for the second time in less than 5 days or ... 

On tuesday in Meistriliiga: 

Kalju - Flora

18:30 CET

5€ on over 2.5 goals @2

I'm pretty sure that defending champions probably even didn't expect that start to the season will be this hard - they've won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 of the first 3 leaguegames.. And what's more intresting is that they seem to score in every second game cause so far they've scored 0,5,0 goals so tomorrow they'd find the net yet again.. At the same time Flora have won all 3 leaguegames so far but unlike Kalju then they've yet to play against stronger teams.. However for Flora recent h2h games haven't been succesful as they're winless in 5 h2h leaguegames despite scoring in most recent 3.. Obviously both teams have enough firepower to turn this match into highscoring one so hopefully we'll see open game here from one end to another where both teams actually try to attack instead of keeping it clear at the back... I'm probably going to watch this game aswell so hopefully it'll be good match actually..

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On wednesday in Meistriliiga:

Trans - Levadia

18:30 CET

5€ on under 3.0 goals @2.21

Trans is the only team after 3 matches who have yet to concede but they have also failed to score in both homegames.. Levadia meanwhile have won all 3 games so far while conceding just once but they've only played with weaker teams as they now face first real test of the season.. As both teams have been quite good in defense so far this season then i assume that we don't see open game here cause both teams are probably trying to avoid making stupid mistakes etc and therefore focus on keeping it clear at the back and then trying to figure out how to score 1-2 decisive goals...
* obviously for the sake of the game i don't mind seeing highscoring match here but considering how hard it's playing in Narva for our top clubs then perhaps Trans can actually defend well enough here to make sure that their third homegame this season will be lowscoring one yet again.

 

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Today in Meistriliiga: 

Tammeka - Levadia

12:00 CET

5€ on Levadia -1.5 @1.80

Tammeka scored 2+ goals in first 2 leaguegames but have gone backwards since then cause they lost previous 2 leaguegames 1:4 and 0:3 ... At the same time Levadia have won all 4 leaguegames this season while scoring 16 and conceding just 2 goals - although they've scored 5 and 8 goals in both homegames then on the road they haven't destroyed hosts yet as they won 1:0 in Kuressaare and 2:1 in Narva.. Tammeka can usually cause serious problems to top teams(specially at home) so i expect them to make it hard for the visitors this time aswell. Considering this game starts 13:00 local time and it basically takes 3h to get there then i assume it might affect Levadia in someway if they started their bus trip this morning rather than in previous day and therefore spending the night in hotel like they usually do ahead of some early awaygames(like any true top club). However i still expect them to get another win here and unlike wins in Narva and Kuressaare then hopefully today they can win by 2 or more goals

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@Whoever wrote:

Today in Meistriliiga: 

Tammeka - Levadia

12:00 CET

5€ on Levadia -1.5 @1.80


Well obviously they won 2:1 in the second consecutive awaygame so not mad at all. I believe that there are 3 Esiliiga games on monday and 1 of them is televised so i might bet on something tomorrow aswell ...

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Today in Esiliiga: 

Kalev II - Legion

18:00 CET

5€ on under 4 goals @1.85

Both teams have been quite good so far this season cause Kalev have won 3 of the 4 games while Legion who were just promoted to Esiliiga this season. Also while none of the Kalev games went 4 goals then 2 of the Legion matches did and both these games were on the road for them as they scored 4 in both these awaygames... However i'm still using familiar line this time aswell: "whenever under 4 odds are that good you just have to hope that for once both teams are worldclass in defending and amateurs in attacking" so who knows how this goes. Luckily this game which will be played in extreme weather conditions(for april) is streamed live at soccernet.ee so i can actually see whether my bet works out/fails miserably :)

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Obviously with under 4 there's this thing that whether they are (absolutely) brilliant or way off the mark(specially when we see hockey score) - bankroll may have decreased to 485.- but that do not stop me from making new several bets this weekend. Therefore here are 2 tips for saturday:

Kalev - Maardu

12:00 CET

5€ on Maardu AH0 @2.01 in 1xbet

This is obviously perfect chance for either team to collect points. Kalev have lost all 5 leaguegames this season and they havent scored since first match of the season.. Still their last 3 defeats were just 0:2 so they weren't humiliated either. Meanwhile Maardu may have conceded 19 goals in games vs Levadia-Kalju-Flora which is clearly too much but in other games against Tammeka and Kuressaare they got 4p which is probably quite decent result. Despite conceding in each of the last 5 h2h games Maardu still won 4 during that time so i expect them to NOT lose this time aswell.

And 3 hours later ...

Trans - Flora

15:00 CET

5€ on Flora -1 AH @1.90 in 1xbet

Trans have lost just 1 of the 5 games so far this season but they have also won just 1 ... At the same time Flora have won all of the 5 games. Both teams have also been good defensively as they both have kept 4 clean sheets this season with Trans conceding just twice and Flora once ... Trans have already showed that in Narva they can make decent perfomance against our top clubs so although Flora probably faces another difficult game then they really should be capable of NOT dropping points here just like Kalju did and actually return to Tallinn with 3p like Levadia managed to do ...

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Well last weekend Flora did their job by giving another refund as they won 1:0 while Maardu showed that they are probably capable of taking points and scoring goals only against teams who aren't from Tallinn as they lost 0:2 to Kalev who had lost all 5 previous games ...  So for this weekend i'm trying different approach with going for 1 game and making 3 bets.

Sunday in Meistriliiga: 

Paide - Levadia

14:00 CET

10€ on J. Budnik to score @1.80 - Betsafe

10€ on Levadia -1 AH @1.85 - Marathonbet

10€ on both teams NOT to score @2.52 - 1xbet

Betsafe is the only bookie who is offering player to score and to be booked odds from this season so i'm probably using them even more during the season... Levadia's striker J. Budnik is the only player who have scored in all 6 leaguegames and so it's probably no surprise that he's current topscorer with 8 goals. Obviously even he can't score forever but still as he's also taking care of penalties this season perhaps he can actually score yet again before facing first 2 real opponents this season cause after this match Levadia is going to play against Flora and Kalju in the league... 

Levadia may have won all 6 games so far this season but they havent been that impressive defensively as they've kept just 2 clean sheets and have conceded in each of the last 3 games so as their next leaguegames are against Flora and Kalju then it's definitely about time to make solid defensive perfomance. 

Obviously Paide will be making it hard for the visitors cause they've actually shown that they can actually defend cause they've conceded just one goal so far this season and have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets. Therefore Levadia probably finds it difficult once again on the road specially as their previous 3 awaywins this season were by 1 goal but despite that i still expect them to get seventh win of the season.

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@Whoever wrote:

Sunday in Meistriliiga: 

Paide - Levadia

14:00 CET

10€ on J. Budnik to score @1.80 - Betsafe

10€ on Levadia -1 AH @1.85 - Marathonbet

10€ on both teams NOT to score @2.52 - 1xbet


Jevgeni Budnik is still the only player who've scored in every leaguegame and now he has scored 9 goals with 7 games. Also Levadia won 2:0 so all 3 bets won and BR is now 511.70€ :)

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Today in estonian cup QF: 

Kalju - Tammeka

18:00 CET

5€ on Tammeka over 0.5 goals @1.83 (1xbet)

5€ on Tammeka DC @4.33 (bet365)

I guess it's safe to say that neither team haven't found their rhythm yet as Tammeka have lost 5 consecutive matches since getting 4p from first 2 leaguegames.. However defending champions have been even worse(although they did score twice in each of the last 3 games) as after seven games they are already 10p behind the leaders ... Both teams also met just 9 days ago and then Kalju won 2:0 but still compared to that game eventhough Tammeka is going to play defensively yet again i (sadly) doubt that they can keep hosts away from scoring for 90(or 120) minutes so they probably need to score here if they want to get something from this game so they definitely need to be more clinical etc than in previous h2h game... Kalju have also conceded 2+ goals in 3 of the 4 homegames this season which is clearly too much.

Obviously Kalju might get an easy win here(with another clean sheet) but perhaps they struggle again and this match goes all the way to penalties ...

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@Whoever wrote:

Today in estonian cup QF: 

Kalju - Tammeka

18:00 CET

5€ on Tammeka over 0.5 goals @1.83 (1xbet)

5€ on Tammeka DC @4.33 (bet365)

 


Tammeka played well enough to force extra time as it was goalless after 90 minutes but they still lost 1:2 thanks to 119th min goal so as neutral it's quite shame that penalty shootout was so close yet so far ...  BR is now 528.35€

 

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