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Danish Superliga


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I am going to give it a try with my analysis. 

Danish Superliga

When: Sunday July 17th, 13:00 CET
Who: SønderjyskE - AGF Aarhus
What: SønderjyskE DNB 1.60
Stake: 1.5/5
Why: First match of the new season. Last season's second place SønderjyskE takes on 10th place (out of 12) AGF at home. AGF are without goal machine Morten Duncan Rasmussen who is out with a knee injury. Duncan has scored nine out of AGF's last ten goals so it is hard to see who is going to score AGF's goals here.

Unibet offered 1.67 for this pick but is now down to 1.60 which is closer to the other bookies in the market.

Bonus info: The Danish Superliga is from this season now expanded to fourteen teams.

Bonus info 2: If you are unsure what DNB it is an Asian handicap bet. DNB stands for draw no bet. It is the 0 line under Asian handicap.

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Thanks for the tips , I'm looking forward to read more about Superligaen .  Will follow you for sure here.  The only thing that worries me is that they played the Europa League qualification yesterday against Strømsgodset , they won 2-1 . Maybe they are a bit tired after that match , we'll see.






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  • 2 months later...

Friday 16/9-2016, 18.00

Danish Superliga: Esbjerg - Randers 

Tip: Both to score (1,70)


The Esbjerg defence hasn't been looking great so far this season, giving away 20 goals in 8 matches. To a comparison Randers gave away 5. But friday the two central defenders at Randers are suspended and that could be a problem. We are looking at goals in this match, tempting to make an over 3,5 goals bet if odds are found to 3,15 or 2,5 goals if 1,80.

If you want to play for the result, play 2-4 to odds 56 :peace:

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FC Nordsjælland – SønderjyskE
September 17th at 12:00 CET
Pick: FC Nordsjælland (draw-no-bet) at odds 2,06

Both teams are in desperate need of 3 points - last year’s runner-up SønderjyskE hasn’t won a single match yet (5 draws and 3 defeats) and with FC Nordsjælland having only 2 points more than their opponent tomorrow it sure seems like a close one tomorrow.

Since Kasper Hjulmand returned to Nordsjælland around Christmas last year (got sacked in Mainz 05 back in Feb 2015), they've been looking forward to get back on their feet and hopefully being able to challenge the bigger teams in the league. As assistant coach back in 2008 he had a major role in implementation of a whole new style of football in the Superliga we’ve never seen before.
In 2011 he was announced as head-coach and in the following season they knocked down everyone, ending at the top of the league for the first time in the history! Practicing the kind of football they showed back then in their best season is very unusual in Denmark – high pressure, high defending line and very entertaining football. Hjulmand has earlier revealed his passion for the style of football that Dortmund and Bayern play, but with the lack of quality we've got in the Danish league compared to rest of Europe, it takes time to teach a team to play like that, and the last season showed that they obviously weren’t on the level they want to be at.

SønderjyskE, on the other hand, impressed the whole country last season being being the title contender FC Copenhagen. They kind of pulled a Leicester as nobody expected them to finish in the top of the league, having an incredible organisation defensively. Like Leicester, they are the kind of team who doesn’t necessarily has to have the most possession in order to be in control of a game. In fact, to me they look more comfortable defending their own goal and then be in a position to create chances on counter-attacks while their opponent isn’t organized defensively.

But hey, this could actually seem like a decent fit for SønderjyskE, couldn’t it? Considering their football philosophy against a team like FC Nordsjælland who wants to be in possession, it sure looks like a good match-up for the guests, but looking at the odds development I’m gonna go with the home team. The opening odds (1X2) were at 2,25 on Unibet and over the past two days it’s increased from about 2,50 to 2,85.
One of the most important factors in this match-up has to be the artificial turf they’ll be playing on tomorrow. Nordsjælland has had this kind of turf since 2012, and in last week they got the whole pitch renewed with a new sort of artificial turf. Nordsjælland doesn’t have a terrifying home ground at all  (very low decibel from their fans), but the turf they’re using at home has an important role in the style they want to play - hopefully we’ll see that tomorrow!
In my opinion, SønderjyskE has showed in the first part of the new season that they don’t belong in the top of the league and they clearly over-performed last season with a very strong defence. They only conceded 1,09 goals per game last season, while they’ve conceded 1,75 goals per game so far this season and since don’t see the same attacking quality like I do in Nordsjælland, I've got the home team as a slight favourite in this match.

I estimate the chance of 1X2 outcomes to be at 36-29-35, which actually gives us a tiny betvalue of 102,6% on Nordsjælland to win the match. Looking closer at the odds I found a bit more value on the draw-no-bet version to the odds of 2,06 as you get a 103,16% betvalue on this outcome, considering the risk of a draw when betting 1X2.

FCN: Patrick Mtiliga, Marcondes, Emil Damgaard and Lasse Petry.
SønderjyskE: Tommy Bechmann and Casper Olsen.

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