KKorppu's Value Plays for UFC Fight Night 90

[KKorppu]

Here are some select special picks for tonight's UFC betting including their odds on Unibet at the time of writing and a short explanation. This time I'm especially making use of the possibility to bet on the favorites who I know to be strong finishers to win their matches likewise, in order to substantially raise their odds.

Vicente Luque vs. Alvaro Herrera:   Alvaro Herrera to win (4.50)
+Bonus play:   Alvaro Herrera to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISC etc.)  (5.50)
Herrera is coming off a 30-second knockout win in his UFC debut into this fight against inconsistent Luque who has won just eight of his 14 career bouts. This is going to be a battle for the knockout and with these odds I am more than willing to bet low-risk, high-reward on Herrera's punching power. Herrera also has some serious submission skills allowing him to finish if the match goes to the ground, too.

Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski:   Gilbert Burns to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISC etc.)  (2.62)
Burns is one of the best submission artists in this division and has finished his opponent 10 times out of his 11 wins. He is a strong favorite over Sajewski, and should be able to finish him quickly to bounce back from his first career loss.

Joseph Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke:   Joseph Duffy to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISC etc.)  (1.95)
Joe Duffy is probably the single biggest favorite on this card. Duffy is a strong striker and has excellent submissions, so it is no coincidence that 13 of his 14 wins have come by stoppage. Clarke simply does not have the same skillset that Duffy does, so I expect Joe to score a big finish here.

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto M.na:    Alberto M.na to win (2.00)
There is no reason for unbeaten Alberto M.na to be an underdog against Mike Pyle, who is nearing the end of his career. M.na has been impressive in his previous bouts in the UFC, and I could see him picking up another victory over a veteran to move up the ranks. He has what it takes to finish the match both on his feet and on the ground, so I would expect a solid finish from him.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez:   Eddie Alvarez to win (3.75)
Dont get me wrong, Rafael dos Anjos is an absolute beast and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world right now. But still, Alvarez has just two losses in the last eight years and if the fight goes the distance, it will give him more chances to score points.  Dos Anjos is coming off an injury and who knows what he will look like in the "new era" of UFC. Alvarez is a risky play, but I still see some value in him.


Apparently Alberto's last name is not permitted in the community, so I replaced his name with M.na instead. :)

[KKorppu]

Vicente Luque vs. Alvaro Herrera:   Alvaro Herrera to win (4.50) LOST

Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski:   Gilbert Burns to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISC etc.)  (2.62) WON

Joseph Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke:   Joseph Duffy to win by finishing (incl. KO/TKO/SUB/DISC etc.)  (1.95) WON

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto M.na:   Alberto M. na to win (2.00) WON

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez:   Eddie Alvarez to win (3.75) WON

Congratulations to everyone who won, more to come later on for tonight's TUF 23 Finale!