Premier League specials

[Angellike]

I thought I'd share some of my Premier League special market thoughts and bets

Lindelöf O15.5 appearences at 1.85
2016/17: Jones 18; Rojo 21; Smalling 18; Blind 23; Shaw 11; Valencia 28; Darmian 18; Bailly 25. Mou likes consistency and Lindelöf has hardly been bought for the bench. Can only see this bet losing if he gets injured. Also versatile, can play on the wing if need be. Subs counts as well, I check with support.

Jay Rodriguez, O6.5 goals at 1.95
Been bought by Pulis at WBA, probably not for the bench. Prone to injuries but still doesn't need too many games to reach 7 goals. Might also be the penalty taker.

Rondon, U9.5 goals at 1.75
Another WBA striker, got 9 in 34 in the 15/16 season and 8/37 last year. Nothing suggests him getting 10+ goals, something he hasn't done since 14/15 in Zenit (and 09/10-10/11 and 11/12 before that).

Jermain Defoe, O12.5 goals at 2.0
Transfer to goal happy Bournemouth (55-67 last season). Got 15 two seasons running playing in the worst side. Him and J. King will have plenty of goals between them. 

(Mostly for fun) Number of own goals for the entire season, U32.5 at 1.85 (o32.5 at same odds if you disagree :))
First of all, what a great way to root for/have a sweat for every game. Similar to a "goals scored in added time" bet which one can read about in my previous thread.
45-31-33-35 - no of OGs the last four seasons. However I feel this will be a declining number for two reasons: 1) attackers and defenders are getting better = less goals --> less O.G's. 2) I think, although there are clear rules, the people deciding on if a goal is an OG or not they will lean towards awarding it to the team that scored (and no one will protest). Also some basic maths that don't really matter: 380 games in a PL season, i.e. if there's no OG every 12 games we'll win!

Let me know what you think!

[BonusPater]

Nice to have you back, @Angellike! :)

I can't comment on the bets, as they are not on German football, but I'll give the Lindelöf bet a shot :)

[Angellike]

Just found an interresting bet; once again the special market. Unfortunately not at Unibet, but I'm guessing we all like money ;) Or they can offer the same terms! =D

Head to head, top goalscorer: J. Hernandez (Chicarito) vs D. Sturridge

Chicarito bought by West Ham, presumably to start - if not Carroll is injury prone so he'll get plenty of minutes. Sturrigde won't ever come off the bench in Liverpool, also very injury prone. Unibet has D.S. as fifth favorite in Liverpool alone (11.00) behind Salah, Coutinhio, Mané and Firminhio (I might also have Origi before D.S.), while Chica is the favorite (1.75). Unibets goal line for D.S.: 6.5. Chica: 11.5. Using this information Chica should be a pretty big favorite. But NordicBet has them even at 1.86-1.86. All in!

Thoughts?

[Livertool]

Really like Lindelöf and J. Hernendez vs Sturridge and you pretty much nailed the reasoning too :)

Just to add, i wouldn´t be suprised at all if Sturridge had transfer this season, loan or permanent. If he is able to keep himself healthy when sitting in bench 

[Angellike]

@Livertool Thanks! I like them a lot too. I asked support what happens if a player gets sold but have yet to get an answer. Unibet have three different criteria, but jhopefully he'll just stay put. I have a feeling he doesn't want to grind it out in a 'lesser' club such as e.g. Southampton, Crystal Palace or even a promoted side. 

[BonusPater]

It doesn't change anything if he gets sold, then your bet is just won - if your player scores more goals :)

[Angellike]

@testuser1 The support representative I spoke to said there are three critieria that can be used and from what I remember being sold before playing a game would result in a push...

[Angellike]

@testuser1 Hi guys, just had a conversation with NordicBet, where I placed the Hernandez h2h vs Sturridge bet, which got vioded due to Sturridge being sold to WBA. The rule is apparently: For season bets the player has to finish the competition in the same team that he started the competition with.

Is there any point screaming? Obviously I'm being results oriented since Chicha has 7 and Sturridge has 2...

[BonusPater]

@Angellike, ah, that sucks! When I wrote the reply, I had forgotten that you didn’t place the bet with Unibet, where the rule is different.

If it’s clearly written in the T&C, I’m afraid there’s nothing you can do. If it’s not really clear from the T&C (can it be misunderstood?) I’d definitely ask them to consider some sort of goodwill gesture :)

[Angellike]

@testuser1 @Livertool Hopefully you also bet Lindelöf O15.5! :) The bet hasn't been settled but should be soon I hope. I was getting worried since VNL didn't get his first appearence until the 14th of October (a 90+3 sub...)! Thankfully he came under Mou's good graces enough times to win us some money.

Unfortunately the Chica vs Sturridge bet was vioded but that would also have been a win.  

[Livertool]

Unfortunately i didn´t and now i wish i would. But congrats to you :)